Non c’è più lavoro.
Questo è il Top
- 18:34 02/12/09
- E' venuto il momento di fare un altra previsione sballata. Il massimo relativo di oggi degli indici è il top e questo lunedì forse sarà un "lunedì nero", simile a quello creato dal Dubai, possibilmente peggio. Forse qualcosa a livello delle banche e del settore finanziario verrà fuori, un altro cadavere nell'armadio oppure la FED sarà costretta a fare qualche rumore nel senso di stringere un poco la liquidità per evitare l'avvitamento in basso del dollaro e in alto dell'Oro oppure una crisi geopolitica non lo so, ma ci sono i sintomi
FONDAMENTALI
1) il Dollaro è ora tirato al massimo sui grafici e in termini di sentiment e così il suo opposto l'Oro (grafico), basta guardare oggi il massimo vicino a 1.220 dollari l'oncia e il grafico dell'ETF USA Gold ETF (grafico)
2) i Treasury Bond (grafico) e titoli di stato A BREVE, a scadenza tra un mese e cinque anni, hanno avuto un rally incredibile nell'ultimo mese, se guardi solo loro penseresti che sia iniziata ora la recessione o che qualche banca stia fallendo perchè sul reddito fisso a breve, debito di stato però, hai la corsa a chi ne compra di più (in realtà questa corsa agli acquisti è sospetta perchè sono quasi tutte banche centrali...)
3) le spread dei junk bond e bonds corporate dopo un rally incredibile che ha portato debito junk che costava 40 centesimi ora a 80 centesimi hanno cominciato per la prima volta da marzo ad allargarsi e i bonds corporate e anche di paesi sovrani e i loro CDS vedi Grecia o Inghilterra salendo (i CDS salgono e i bonds scendono)
4) il Petrolio (grafico) ha ceduto di nuovo oggi e il gas naturale è sprofondato per cui l'energia SMENTISCE quello che dicono le altre materie prime come il Rame (grafico) e minerali e l'acciaio o il Baltic Dry Index cioè che c'è la ripresa. Il petrolio è a 76 dollari, un livello che aveva toccato per la prima a volta a giugno e da segni di cedere non di salire
5) le vendite al dettaglio e i consumi continuano sistematicamente a deludere sia in America che in Europa, il famoso "black friday" cioè il weekend passato del Ringraziamento in America in cui gli ipermercati e negozi hanno un "assaggio" delle vendite natalizie lanciando mega sconti per chi arriva alle 6 del mattino ecc... è stato un disastro. Le vendite nel weekend sono a -9% rispetto a novembre 2008, ma a novembre scorso era quando la crisi era già iniziata. Il consumatore americano non spende, se vuoi una discussione colorita da parte di un esperto guarda qui ieri Davidowitz
TECNICI
1) il Sequential giornaliero è completo oggi di nuovo su DAX (grafico), Footsie (grafico), Nasdaq, Dow Jones e molti altri indici e quello settimanale era completo a fine ottobre su molti indici per cui è ancora valido se non sforiamo di nuovo. Ricordo che in marzo avevi sia il Sequential giornaliero che settimanale completi
2) Le banche e il settore finanziario europeo ed USA NON HANNO SEGUITO il resto del mercato in su questo mese e sono deboli, guarda Goldman Sachs (grafico), Citigroup (grafico), Bank of America (grafico), American International Group (grafico) e le banche europee, guarda l'indice bancario USA Banche USA ETF (grafico)
3) le Small Cap hanno fatto il massimo in ottobre e poi sia in europa che in America non si sono avvicinate più ai massimi e restano sistematicamente indietro anche questa settimana, guarda gli indici Small Cap italiani come lo Star o il Russell 2000 (grafico)
Ricordo anche che il valore corretto degli S&P sarebbe intorno a 800 dollari non 1.100 dollari dove siamo ora.
(Nella foto: i Treasury a 2 anni USA, quando c'è ripresa economica e la borsa sale davvero non esplodono al rialzo in questo modo
Nella seconda foto, l'ETF dell'Oro, questo è un panico di acquisto speculare al cedimento del dollaro e da qui o si impenna del tutto o inverte)
Clicca sull'immagine per ingrandirla
Clicca sull'immagine per ingrandirla
Clicca sull'immagine per ingrandirla
Clicca sull'immagine per ingrandirlahttp://www.cobraf.com/blog
Questo è il Top
FONDAMENTALI
1) il Dollaro è ora tirato al massimo sui grafici e in termini di sentiment e così il suo opposto l'Oro (grafico), basta guardare oggi il massimo vicino a 1.220 dollari l'oncia e il grafico dell'ETF USA Gold ETF (grafico)
2) i Treasury Bond (grafico) e titoli di stato A BREVE, a scadenza tra un mese e cinque anni, hanno avuto un rally incredibile nell'ultimo mese, se guardi solo loro penseresti che sia iniziata ora la recessione o che qualche banca stia fallendo perchè sul reddito fisso a breve, debito di stato però, hai la corsa a chi ne compra di più (in realtà questa corsa agli acquisti è sospetta perchè sono quasi tutte banche centrali...)
3) le spread dei junk bond e bonds corporate dopo un rally incredibile che ha portato debito junk che costava 40 centesimi ora a 80 centesimi hanno cominciato per la prima volta da marzo ad allargarsi e i bonds corporate e anche di paesi sovrani e i loro CDS vedi Grecia o Inghilterra salendo (i CDS salgono e i bonds scendono)
4) il Petrolio (grafico) ha ceduto di nuovo oggi e il gas naturale è sprofondato per cui l'energia SMENTISCE quello che dicono le altre materie prime come il Rame (grafico) e minerali e l'acciaio o il Baltic Dry Index cioè che c'è la ripresa. Il petrolio è a 76 dollari, un livello che aveva toccato per la prima a volta a giugno e da segni di cedere non di salire
5) le vendite al dettaglio e i consumi continuano sistematicamente a deludere sia in America che in Europa, il famoso "black friday" cioè il weekend passato del Ringraziamento in America in cui gli ipermercati e negozi hanno un "assaggio" delle vendite natalizie lanciando mega sconti per chi arriva alle 6 del mattino ecc... è stato un disastro. Le vendite nel weekend sono a -9% rispetto a novembre 2008, ma a novembre scorso era quando la crisi era già iniziata. Il consumatore americano non spende, se vuoi una discussione colorita da parte di un esperto guarda qui ieri Davidowitz
TECNICI
1) il Sequential giornaliero è completo oggi di nuovo su DAX (grafico), Footsie (grafico), Nasdaq, Dow Jones e molti altri indici e quello settimanale era completo a fine ottobre su molti indici per cui è ancora valido se non sforiamo di nuovo. Ricordo che in marzo avevi sia il Sequential giornaliero che settimanale completi
2) Le banche e il settore finanziario europeo ed USA NON HANNO SEGUITO il resto del mercato in su questo mese e sono deboli, guarda Goldman Sachs (grafico), Citigroup (grafico), Bank of America (grafico), American International Group (grafico) e le banche europee, guarda l'indice bancario USA Banche USA ETF (grafico)
3) le Small Cap hanno fatto il massimo in ottobre e poi sia in europa che in America non si sono avvicinate più ai massimi e restano sistematicamente indietro anche questa settimana, guarda gli indici Small Cap italiani come lo Star o il Russell 2000 (grafico)
Ricordo anche che il valore corretto degli S&P sarebbe intorno a 800 dollari non 1.100 dollari dove siamo ora.
(Nella foto: i Treasury a 2 anni USA, quando c'è ripresa economica e la borsa sale davvero non esplodono al rialzo in questo modo
Nella seconda foto, l'ETF dell'Oro, questo è un panico di acquisto speculare al cedimento del dollaro e da qui o si impenna del tutto o inverte)
Clicca sull'immagine per ingrandirla
Clicca sull'immagine per ingrandirla
Clicca sull'immagine per ingrandirla
Clicca sull'immagine per ingrandirla
Accidental American Patriot
Bill Sardi
About to Fire His First Shot at Overthrowing the Reigning Bankster Party From Office By Buying Gold
Email to: Jacob Hornberger
The Future of Freedom Foundation
jhornberger@fff.org
From: Bill Sardi
Thank you for your article entitled "Gold, Freedom and the Fed," about gold and the Federal Reserve.
My comment is that, unlike any other time in history, I now have access to unprecedented amounts of information via the internet. I can also check spot gold prices at any moment, and monitor the current fad/trend to buy gold.
Bill Bonner, in his LR article "Is the world ready for this gold rally?", cites David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, who figured out in 2007 that banks were going to fail on their home mortgage obligations and made a fortune "shorting" their stocks, and Einhorn now piles up physical gold as well as invests in gold stocks.
Then there are the highly visible signs hanging from jewelry shops "We buy gold," which serves as advertising for this modern gold rush.
The gold frenzy is beginning to build up steam with the announcement that the US Mint has ceased selling 1-oz. American Eagle gold coins because it can't keep up with demand, combined with an announcement on the same day that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insurance fund, which insures bank accounts of Americans, is fully depleted.
So what happens if the public increases its demand for gold to the point where it fast becomes the most valued medium of exchange? Doesn't gold then become the de facto currency? We end up with a gold-currency of sorts without government decree.
The Herd Instinct
The masses are primed for this gold rush. The public doesn't know hoot about history, the Federal Reserve, the Constitutional constraints to use gold and not paper money, they only know what is expedient, what is today, what is bread on the table, what is their herd instinct. Not knowing what to do, they ask others what they are doing.
Just like the masses heard that it would be profitable to buy homes with next-to-nothing down payments and then "flip" them for unheard-of profit, which became the so-called sub-prime real estate bubble, the masses are now primed to sell their gold jewelry, buy a little bit of gold, etc.
This increased interest to buy and sell gold, ramping up in speed, even if it be led by only 10-20% of the population, would increasingly place gold as a topic that cannot be ignored by the news media without losing audience.
You notice no politician or government shill (Federal Reserve Chairman, US Treasury Secretary) can find the words to say "Hey, you Americans, stop buying gold, your paper money is backed by the full faith and credit of the US government." No, in fact, if we could only spy on the elites to find out how much gold they are buying.
What Gold Represents to the Average American
The problem with so much that I read about money, investment, gold, inflation, deflation, etc, is that it is targeted at the wealthy, people with extra money to invest, not the common man, not the peons, the little people, those who live in trailer parks, who have only a small wad of paper money and a few silver dollars stashed under the mattress, to the consternation of the central bankers who lament they can't tap this money to use in their fractional banking scheme.
According to a Federal Reserve survey, about 28 million Americans, many in lower income groups and who speak a foreign language or who write very few checks in a month, don't have a bank account. Many of these people mistrust banks. Many have difficulty balancing their bank book. A $28 overdraft fee would devastate many of these people. So they pay cash, use PayPal, postal money orders, etc. This group of people are more likely to sell what little gold they have, in the form of jewelry, than to buy it, in the form of gold coins, etc. But this gets gold imprinted into the minds of people as the most valuable thing to hold.
If the less-moneyed classes begin to purchase a few gold coins it would not be an investment - it would represent a survival strategy. The masses are not in a position to hold gold and profiteer. They would utilize gold coins as a form of barter to pay bills, buy essentials, etc, in the event paper money becomes confetti.
Who cares if the price of gold falls due to manipulation by the central bankers if paper money is considered worthless? In an implausible future scenario, if gold coins are bought at $1000 per 1-oz coin, and they quickly lose half their value, to $500 per coin, what does that matter if paper money becomes worthless?
What will the Moneyed-Classes do?
If the amount of gold purchased by Americans were divided by the total population of over 300 million, this would represent less than $7 of gold purchased per capita per year. Now, should just 10-15% of the moneyed-classes begin to buy gold coins, this represents paper money that is withdrawn from the banksters and converted into real gold that is not likely to even be stored in a bank safety deposit box. Needless to say, the sale of home safes is up 50-70%. This essentially represents a "bank run." Gold coins cannot be used by the banksters any more than money under the mattress.
Buying Gold Represents a Run On the Banks
Too big to fail? - that is the mantra of the Federal Reserve and the FDIC, both which are now in a compromised position to prop up the nation's largest banks. But what of the biggest bank - the central bank, The Federal Reserve - could it fail?
The Fed holds, as its primary assets, a bunch of Freddie Mac and Fannie May mortgage paper on over-valued real estate and the FDIC just declared its insurance fund is fully depleted, which forces the US Treasury to print more money to buy up failed banks (at least 500 should are utterly insolvent, the remaining 7800 US banks are poorly capitalized). The FDIC has a $500 billion line of credit, which still appears to be a token amount against trillions of dollars of deposits in bank accounts.
Lest we forget that Washington Mutual failed after just 10% of their deposits, which the banks uses as reserves, were withdrawn in just a few days, which forced the collapse of the bank. At one moment in time, Washington Mutual was the sixth-largest US bank. Bank runs can topple large banks.
Pincers Movement Underway
So we have a pincers movement underway - the under-classes hoarding money, keeping it out of the clutches of the banksters, and the moneyed classes which may be increasingly buying gold. (Not to overlook increased investment in gold futures and stocks will likely cause the stock market to rise. Usually, when the dollar fails the stock market plunges also, but here we have an interesting new phenomenon.)
Americans have an estimated $7 trillion in banked money. The banks use this money to lend and generate interest by keeping it as a required reserve and then creating money out of thin air to lend. This is called fractional banking. If depositors withdraw funds, then the bank can't meet legal reserve requirements and they would be forced to call in loans.
We find the best banks (only a few of them) have ~9% reserves, while many major banks (B of A included) have ~4-5% reserves. A new safety target is for banks to increase their minimum reserves to 8%, and frankly, few will be able to do this.
The US Treasury and the central bank, the Federal Reserve, can elect to print more money to increase reserves, but they did this in 2009 and had to park the money at the banks to keep it from fanning the flames of inflation. This paralyzed the economy but temporarily fixed bank ledgers. The US Treasury says they aren't going to do this again. But just where will they come up with the capitalization needed by the FDIC to cover the deposits at the next 500 failed banks? Obviously, government is buying more ink and paper to print more money. This could become the "helicopter drop" of money that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, referring to a prior comment made by economist Milton Friedman, said could be implemented in a crisis.
For the uninitiated, printing more money devalues the value of existing currency. This effectually represents a depreciation of the value of your banked money. The Federal Reserve Bank has been covertly stealing money out of your bank account for decades in this manner.
The Perilous Safety of Your Banked Money
The FDIC insures only about $4.7 trillion of that $7 trillion of banked money, so a major banking failure would immediately wipe out $3.3 trillion and force the government to print an additional $4.7 trillion of paper money to cover the losses. If Americans lose faith in banks, that would mean a currency collapse.
Now if the moneyed class decides to withdraw even a small portion of their cash and buy physical gold (coins, bars, etc.), let's just say 5% or 10% of that $7 trillion of banked money, or $350-700 billion, you have a huge increase in demand for gold and a simultaneous withdrawal of paper money. This represents $3-6 trillion of loans the banks can no longer cover with adequate reserves against which banks are holding as collateral those over-valued real estate assets that are obviously tainted in tradable market value.
Federal Government Countermeasures
The federal government certainly knows what is going on. The federal government also detests money in the form of gold that can't be tracked and taxed. So they are not idly sitting and watching. They have responded ahead of the crisis.
Keith Fitz-Gerald (KFG) at MoneyMorning.com, says: "Unbeknownst to most investors, gold is now being considered a collectible, not a capital asset in the USA. This means that despite the fact that many people believe they are investing in gold, the US Internal Revenue Service believes that they are collecting it." This could subject profits from such investments to a minimum 28% tax rate if held for more than 12 months. If sold within a year, profits are taxed at ordinary income rates. The tax problem develops when the gold is sold at a profit. But what happens when it is just being used in commerce? But how will government track a guy who pays for groceries or for a plumbing job with inflated-value gold coins? Essentially, this represents a form of barter. Paper money is not being used.
Another countermeasure has been taken by including requirements in the Patriot Act that jewelry shops be registered with the Treasury Department and to purchase a "Patriot Act Compliance Kit." These measures could be in preparation for a government confiscation of gold. Confiscated gold could then be used to pay off debts to foreign countries that no longer accept the American paper dollar.
Efforts to suppress the price of gold
Massive efforts are being made to suppress the price of gold. This is now a matter of public record. The Achilles heel of the banksters is gold!
Yet another countermove that the government can employ is to dump a portion or all of its gold reserves into the market, thus collapsing the value of gold via excess supply. It has just recently been revealed that the Federal Reserve is holding an ample amount of gold, possibly to give the false impression it actually has reserves behind its printed money. That is $288 billion in gold to back $2.585 trillion of paper and coin money in circulation as of 2008. Or let's use the larger M2 money supply as of March 23, 2009, which was $8.395 trillion (the M2 reflects currency, travelers' checks, demand deposits plus time deposits that cannot be withdrawn early without penalty). Either way, the Federal Reserve gold is a trivial amount that could not withstand a crisis such as today's financial cataclysm.
This Federal Reserve gold has been valued since 1973 on the Federal Reserve accounting books at $42 per ounce, but at today's $1100 price per ounce, would be worth ~$288 billion. This Federal Reserve gold could be dumped into the market but it would only temporarily depress the price of gold and shoot the remaining bullet the government has to slow the drive toward gold replacing paper money.
There is a lot of scuttlebutt circulating on the internet, where observers have suspicions that COMEX, the New York Mercantile Exchange division that handles gold exchanges, has issued more gold IOUs than it has in its physical gold inventory. Imagine now, that Americans would consent to having their gold confiscated to cover debts to foreign nations when it was actually going to be used to cover for gold stolen from COMEX vaults.
If you wonder whether the alleged missing COMEX gold is nothing more than internet gossip, Germany and China have suddenly called for their custodial gold accounts in the US to be transferred back to their own country. These countries must now suspect gold in storage in the US may not actually be there.
Finally, a path to dissolving the IRS and Federal Reserve Bank
What I'm getting at here is that many intelligent thinkers have called for abolishment of the IRS and the Federal Income Tax, as well as the Federal Reserve Bank, given they are not Constitutionally mandated. (To view a visual presentation that outlines anti-Federal Reserve sentiments, click here.)
If the public begins to use gold coins to barter, now what? Then banks are partially or completely removed from the equation so as to bring them to their knees. And just how would the IRS track the trading of every gold coin?
Roosevelt figured this out in 1933. He saw it coming. So he invoked Presidential Executive Order number 6102 and confiscated all privately held Gold in the United States on April 5, 1933. But just imagine trying to politically pull this off in America in 2009 when the largest investment houses are buying and trading in physical gold and millions of Americans buying and hoarding gold coins.
Every gold coin purchased is a vote against the central bankers and against the federal government and both entrenched political parties. (Imagine if these were Ron Paul gold dollars? The government saw that one coming too! Recall that federal agents confiscated gold coins from the Liberty Dollar group in Indiana during the time Congressman Ron Paul was running for President.)
Is your mind stuck in the Democrat vs Republican mode?
Pro-Bush? Anti-Obama? - all this polarized political rhetoric vanishes as we realize there is just one political party, the Bankster Party, that uses both parties and their minions in Congress as a false front for their operations. But they could have the rug pulled out from under them, not by a manipulated electronic voting machine like they covertly employ, but by direct vote of the public that federal government-issued money is valueless rubbish.
It was banker Nathan Rothschild who said in 1838 "Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws." But that can go both ways. Cut off the money to the bankers and their minions and you rid the American house of these rogues. America has an opportunity to do just that today by buying gold.
President Andrew Jackson held off the central bankers in the 1800s when he blocked their attempts to circumvent The Constitution and issue paper money.
In 1828 President Jackson, whose Presidential campaign was "Let the people rule," said directly to an audience of bankers, "You are a den of vipers. I intend to rout you out and by the Eternal God I will rout you out." He went on to say: "If the people only understood the rank injustice of our Money and Banking system, there would be a revolution before morning."
Jackson elaborated more, saying that if a central bank would rule "our currency, receiving our public monies, and holding thousands of our citizens in dependence, it would be more formidable and dangerous than the naval and military power of the enemy..."
Decades of declining purchasing power of the American dollar (inflation) has not aroused the public to dispatch the central bankers. Only now, with millions of Americans having faced foreclosure on their home mortgages, have the usurious practices of the bankers aroused the public.
President John F. Kennedy was probably the last President to stand up against the bankers. Kennedy was wary of the current scheme where the US Mint prints money and forwards it to a distributor called The Federal Reserve, which essentially placed covert control of the country, as Rothschild declared, into the hands of bankers.
In 1963 President Kennedy directed his Secretary of the Treasury to print $400 billion of US Notes and issue them directly into circulation, skirting around the Federal Reserve and its Federal Reserve Notes. President Kennedy was assassinated later in that same year and all those US Notes were withdrawn from circulation shortly thereafter. The bankers won that round. In fact, the central banksters have covertly ruled America since the early 1900s. But now the public has an opportunity to rule, as President Jackson said in 1828. It can vote for gold.
The real value of gold versus the dollar?
If you think the US dollar is going to continue to be highly valued, consider that foreign governments prop up the dollar because they don't want low-priced American goods competing with their exports. The US dollar is falsely propped up, if for no other reason than the sheer volume of US dollars worldwide qualifies it as a currency that can be used for exchange by many countries. For other currencies to qualify as a reserve currency they would have to print more money, and this would create inflation. So the US dollar reigns by default. But don't think the value of the US dollar is going to hold up for long. Read Gary North's report "Digits and revolution."
One source says, at $1000 per ounce of gold, there is only $4.5 trillion of gold in the world. However, there is obviously far more paper money in circulation. Imagine the true value of gold! Just what does that make gold worth if every unit of paper money were backed by gold? According to one source, the amount of paper money in the world in June 2009 was $253 trillion. Factor that amount into the aggregate amount of gold in the world and gold would jump 56-fold in value over its $1000 valuation. Obviously, central bankers don't want the masses to know this fact.
Can this gold rush be halted?
The answer to the above question is no because bankers and government are predictably headed in the only direction they know, which is the hopeless trap of printing more money and taxing the people to death after they have issued it.
I hope you get the gist of my message here, that unbeknownst to Americans, they may be participating in a huge revolutionary overthrow of their own amoral government as they elect to purchase and utilize gold.
Government knows it is losing its grip. Government can threaten to take away your guns and bullets as it is currently doing. It can falsely characterize any opposition as being pro-terrorist. It can impart fear with the development of internment camps. It can intimidate with the future recruitment of a 1-million man police force. It can release propaganda via its gofers in the news media. But the people can strike back by abandoning use of their counterfeit money and replacing it with gold. It's a strike at the very center of their ongoing fraud that is now impoverishing every American.
The beat of a different drum - a gold rush
Americans are overly loyal to their government. Americans see no reason why there need to be laws that command them to pay taxes, after all, wouldn't that be the patriotic thing to do?
But Americans now hear the beat of a different drum - like that drum beat of naïve opportunism that lured them into buying over-priced homes with cheap Alan Greenspan-issued money back in 2003. It's the drum beat of a gold rush, like no other in history. It's a true capitalist protest - no government subsidies, tax write-offs or other incentives to drive it, and no legislation needed to mandate it. Which politician can take credit for it? None. They will detest it.
Backed up against the wall by a perilous economy and driven by the inalienable right to "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness," Americans could become inadvertent participants in a bullet-less revolution, a coup that leaves politicians in place, but financially powerless.
Patriots they be? Hardly. But they may unintentionally lead a revolution that repudiates a self-serving government that now witheringly holds power.
If Americans don't begin to push back against the unlawful incursions of government upon their lives now, they will face a tripling of their taxes beginning in 2010.
Just like the British
Just like the British in the late 1700s, mother England wanted to maintain control. Americans protested a tea tax. But the Boston Tea Party, throwing the tea into Boston harbor, wasn't enough to rally Americans against the British. George Washington falteringly opposed the British with a small force against more than 30,000 British troops.
It wasn't till the British burnt down American homes that homeless American women sewed uniforms for their husbands and sons and presented a standing army to General Washington to oppose the British. This strategic error by the British eventually led to their demise.
What the federal government/bankster alliance doesn't realize today is that it has made the same mistake as the British. By accepting bribes from the banksters, politicians have sided with a mob that teased naïve Americans into low introductory home mortgage interest rates, which as resulted in 18 million vacant homes, having the same effect as burning them down as the British did. This has now begun to polarize the people against the banker/politician mafia that now runs the country.
Americans, it's time to load your proverbial muskets. Forget the ineffectual street tea parties which only serve to churn up more frustration. Fire your first shot in this revolution. Buy gold!
November 30, 2009
Bill Sardi [send him mail] is a frequent writer on health and political topics. His health writings can be found at www.naturalhealthlibrarian.com. He is the author of You Don't Have To Be Afraid Of Cancer Anymore.
Wickedness Abides
James Howard Kunstler
"While Dubai is not big enough to set off financial repercussions outside the Middle East, the main fear is that investors could flee risky markets all at once in search of safer havens for their money." -- The NYT, Vikas Bajaj and Graham Bowley, reporting.
Apart from the stark self-contradiction in this quote from The New York Times, you have to love the fatuous 'it's all good' self-assurance where global banking is concerned. No problemo y'all! A mere overdraft incident, a cash-flow hiccup... and yet "the main fear" [among whom?] is that investors [where and in what? Like, everywhere?] could flee risky markets all at once in search of safer havens for their money [WTF?]. Gosh, well, as long as they don't flee the New York Stock Exchange, the Hang Seng, the FTSE.... And, hey, do you suppose anybody bought any credit default swap "insurance" on the deals that financed scores and scores of super-giant condominium skyscrapers and hotels amounting to the greatest spec construction folly in the history of the world?
Snapshots of the stupid fucking work-in-progress have been circulating around the Internet for five years, the disbelief was so monumental. I confess, when I first saw the Palm Island I was impressed at what a superb air-strike target it presented. And then, when the real estate assemblage of artificial islands arranged like a map-of-the-world came along, I could only imagine the megalomanical glee rising in the throat of a jet bomber pilot (nationality unspecified) as he closed in on it.
Whom the gods would punish, they first make completely crazy. That includes us, here in the USA, by the way, but pound-for-pound Dubai is the current champeen. The monstrosity they built in their waterless convection-oven of a city-state makes Las Vegas look like a mere strip mall in comparison. Throw in a few other affronts to nature, such as an indoor ski "mountain," a beach cooled by an under-the-sand refrigerated pipe network, golf courses that have to be hosed down with acre-feet of desalinated sea-water, and forget about "the gods" -- one begins to see the monotheistic hand of "Old Scratch" himself working the levers of the construction cranes out there.
Frankly, I have no idea whether the Dubai fiasco will send seismic ripples thundering through a global banking establishment that is already crippled in more ways than you can count. But it does remind those in thrall to the dazzlement of "green shoots" that debt comes a'creeping, and runs so far, deep, and wide through the broken system of mutual assurances constituting international finance, that Ben Bernanke and his counterparts in central banks 'round the world could drop helicopter loads of paper cash on every rooftop, intersection, parking lot, field, forest, and camel raceway and never make a dent in the fatal web of false obligations we have woven for ourselves.
But you do wonder what was going through their minds as this ridiculous organism took shape on the horn of the Persian Gulf, just as one wonders at loathsome aspirations that Las Vegas presents in our own so-called culture -- essentially a wickedness that exceeds the wildest fantasies of the most demented clergymen, be they closeted sado-masochistic Southern Baptist teleministers, Vatican-approved child molesters, or mullahs dispatching suicide bombers to the marketplaces frequented by housewives and their children.
Lately, the much-repeated aphorism has circulated around the Web that civilizations build their most extreme monuments at the very moment of collapse. If this is true -- and it is hard to argue with the historical record -- then it's time to organize a new Third Party for the 2012 election with Jared Diamond and Cormac McCarthy heading the national ticket (and Roland Emmerich for EPA chief). By then, if we don't stop lying to ourselves about the destruction we have induced, every other suit-and-tie wearing authority figure in America, from the county clerk to Barack Obama, will take on the aura of the archetypal Evil Clown from a Stephen King yarn. Imagine living in a country where absolutely nobody in a leadership position is credible. This is the kind of country we're becoming and it will not keep running that way for long.
The markets will begin digesting the Dubai news in earnest today, making for a holiday season of possibly momentous thrills-and-chills. The big debate going into Thanksgiving was whether the dollar would continue its downward trajectory, leading to some kind of currency failure, hyper-inflation, take your pick... or turn briskly around as investors bailed out of risk vehicles for the conventional safe-haven paper parking lot of US Treasuries.
This debate between the inflationists and deflationists has defied resolution all year. Personally, I side with the deflationistas these days, though I believe our ultimate destination, in a year or so, is destruction of the dollar.
In keeping with the wickedness theme, isn't it interesting that our society now vests all its hopes and wishes for thriving -- indeed survival! -- on a yearly ceremony we have come to call Black Friday. I was raised in a religion-free household, but I confess the signs are just everywhere that we've taken some turn to the Dark Side. I'm a little surprised that "consumers" were not caught on video wringing the necks of chickens in the WalMart parking lots the other day in the hopes of winning supernatural favor for that race down the aisle to the flat-screen TV loss leaders. The cinemas are full of blood-sucking teenagers. Grown men swarm in the unemployment offices wearing sideways hats and butt-crack trousers. Why not just tattoo a message on your forehead that says: "Moron For Hire"?
Recalling the French Revolution, and the Truth About Fractional Banking
Bob Chapman
The following information may be the most important we have ever published. One of our Intel sources, highly placed in banking circles, tells us that on 1/1/10 all banks that have received TARP funds have been informed by the Federal Reserve that they must further restrict any commercial lending. Loans have to be 75% collateralized, 50% of which has to be in cash, which is a compensating balance.
The Fed has to do one of two things: They either have to pull $1.5 trillion out of the system by June, which would collapse the economy, or face hyperinflation. This is why the Fed has instructed banks to inform them when and how much of the TARP funds they can return. At best they can expect $300 to $400 billion plus the $200 billion the Fed already has in hand.
We believe the Fed will opt for letting the system run into hyperinflation. All signs tell us they cannot risk allowing the undertow of deflation to take over the economy. The system cannot stand such a withdrawal of funds. They also must depend on assistance from Congress in supplying a second stimulus plan. That would probably be $400 to $800 billion. A lack of such funding would send the economy and the stock market into a tailspin. Even with such funding the economy cannot expect any growth to speak of and at best a sideways movement for perhaps a year.
We have been told that the FDIC not only is $8.2 billion in the hole, but they have secretly borrowed an additional $80 billion from the Treasury. We have also been told that the FDIC is lying about the banks in trouble. The number in eminent danger are not 552, but a massive 2,035. The cost of bailing these banks out would be $800 billion to $1 trillion. That means 2,500 could be closed in 2010. Now get this, the FDIC is going to be collapsed before the end of 2010, which means no more deposit insurance. This follows the 9/18/09 end of government guarantees on money market funds. Both will force deposits into US government bonds and agency bonds in an attempt to save the system.
This will strip small and medium-sized banks and force them into shutting down or being absorbed. This means you have to get your money out of banks, especially CDs. We repeat get your cash values out of life insurance policies and annuities. They are invested 80% in stocks and 20% in bonds. Keep only enough money in banks for three months of operating expenses, six months for businesses.
Major and semi-major banks are being told to obtain secure storage for new currency-dollars. They expect official devaluation by the end of the year.
We do not know what the exchange rate will be, but as we have stated previously we expect three old dollars to be traded for one new dollar. The alternative is gold and silver coins and shares. For those with substantial sums that do not want to be in gold and silver related assets completely you can use Canadian and Swiss Treasuries. If you need brokers for these investments we can supply them.
The Fed also expects a meltdown in the bond market, especially in municipals. Public services will be cut drastically leading to increased crime and social problems, not to mention the psychological trauma that our country will experience. Already 50% of homes in hard hit urban areas are under water, nationwide more than 25%. That means you have to be out of bonds as well, especially municipals.
As you can see, the Illuminist program is going to come quicker than we anticipated. That in part is because they have had to expedite their program, due to exposure in the IF, other publications and especially via talk ratio and the Internet. There is no doubt we have the elitists on the run.
We are reaching the masses. On TalkStreamLive.com we were on the Rumor Mill this past week and out of 50 talk radio programs we were 5th behind, Rush, Hannity, Dr. Laura and we were tied with Beck. On the Sovereign Economist on Wednesday night we were 5th behind Beck and Savage and ahead of Hannity. Both these programs are not well known and the Sovereign Economist is only about a month old. It shows you what you can do if you work hard enough at it.
The latest favorable events we are told are the seeds of recovery. The green-shoots of spring are to be harvested before winter sets in. We are skeptical of the strength and duration of such a recovery.
The underlying problems are still not being addressed. The US government and the Fed cannot bail out banking, Wall Street, insurance and government indefinitely via monetization. Impaired corporations, no matter what their size, have to be allowed to fail. Stimulus cannot be used indefinitely. Both have to be reigned in, because the longer this charade continues the worse the final outcome is going to be. As we predicted six year’s ago, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae and FHA are the wards of American taxpayers, as is AIG. All their financial conditions worsen every day. They have again been insuring subprime mortgages by the thousands and when they begin to reset next year, we will be back to 60% failure rates. Even government admits already they’ll see 20% failure rates. This, so that housing inventory can be cut from 11-1/2-months inventory to 7-months, again in order to bail out the lenders at the expense of taxpayers. Government and the Fed have no exit plans for these sinking ships, particularly Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie and FHA, never mind their meddling in the economy guaranteeing everything is sight. Benito Mussolini would be very proud of what they have done.
Then we have those on Wall Street, banking and corporate America who believe they are doing God’s work by looting the American public making outrageous profits by in part using taxpayer funds, and allotting themselves disgraceful bonuses as unemployment hovers at 22.2%. Haven’t these people heard of the French Revolution? Their arrogance has no bounds. The credit crisis hasn’t ended; the Fed has extended it by throwing money at problems. We have a mortgage market that is worse than it was a year ago, only kept from sinking by a tax credit 3% down. As a result now we have more than $1 trillion of new mortgage failures on the way.
Our monetary base has more than doubled. Interest rates will probably stay where they are for 18 months or more and we even have a dollar carry trade. The 2009 fiscal budget deficit was $1.5 trillion and 2010 will be worse. Government is not cutting expenses. They are increasing expenses.
In addition making matters worse corruption is flourishing via the incestuous revolving door between Wall Street, the Treasury, in a multiplicity of other appointments and with the Fed. Is it any wonder 75% of Americans want the Fed audited and investigated. That said, the present set of circumstances cannot be allowed to go on indefinitely. We cannot keep insurance, Wall Street and banking on life support forever. Not when we finance two occupations and an ongoing war, never mind our unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Social Security, etc. most all of these problems are being financed by debt to be paid by our great, great grandchildren. We just created $12.7 trillion for bailouts and the Inspector General tells us we are presently on the hook for $23.7 trillion. What happens if all the recipients need another $20 trillion?
The situation is still dire and the solution is temporary and unworkable and Washington and New York are well aware of this. The game will play out over the next few years. In the meantime the dollar will move lower and inflation, gold and silver higher.
Economics is not complex; it is very simple. Professors and economists would like to have you believe it is complicated when in fact they make it opaque, so you cannot understand it. The same is true with banking. In normal times through the century’s bankers using the fractional banking system usually lent 8 times their assets, or deposits. It was only until recently that the privately owned Federal Reserve told banks within the system to lend 40 times assets or more in order to accommodate the system.
All this is to cover to confuse and hide the truth of fractional banking. Bankers’ indebt borrowers with money they made up out of thin air. Debt is enslavement by the bankers upon the people by buying almost everyone off. In the final analysis banking is a fraud unless money is interest free. The Fed, and all the other banks are a fraud.
The game as we know it today began in 1694 when the Rothschild’s formed the privately owned Bank of England and the production of bank notes began and circulated along with sterling silver coins. The end result has been that the bankers own the world. The system today is based on confidence and trust, something that has been worn thin. A reflection of the loss of trust and confidence is that 75% to 80% of Americans want HR1207 and S604 passed by Congress, so that the Fed can be audited and investigated. The public no longer trusts the Fed and the banks. As a result the con game may well be coming to an end. Fifty years ago we and a handful of other conservative warriors set out to inform the public of the giant scam that the Fed really was. It has been a long hard road. Gary Allen and Alan Stang are gone and of the originals all that are left are G. Edward Griffin, Stan Monteith, Anthony Hilder and us. During our lifetimes we now probably will see the end of the Fed. Because the people have finally been awakened. It was a long hard battle that may soon come to fruition.
The final step will be the termination of the Federal Reserve and its monopoly on financial theft. Unfortunately it will mean the demise of the only financial system we have known for 315 years. We do not know as yet what the new system will be like, but the con game is over and most of the world’s inhabitants are broke. The debt that is owed simply cannot be repaid. Japan, the US, the UK and Europe will be the first to go followed by most of the rest of the world.
You ask who will be the big winners? Gold and silver of course. Just as we have been telling you they would for 9-1/2 years, since gold was $252.00 and silver $3.80. Look at the gains for those who listened. And, we still have a long, long way to go to preserve our wealth. Over all those years the gold suppression cartel fought to hold down gold prices by selling gold, using derivatives and futures and in collaboration with good producers such as Barrick Gold and others. Hopefully HR3996 (HR-1207) will now pass unchanged and we can take a look at what the Fed and the Treasury were doing and who aided them.
What we are witnessing in the US and world economy is the result of the greed of central banks to make as much money as possible before they have to collapse the system to bring about World Government.
Good Defense
Larry LaBorde
The announcement that Dubai is going to push its bond payment forward to next spring (default on the interest payment) sent shock waves through the financial world this past week. If rich Arabs who build indoor snow slopes to ski in the desert can not be trusted to repay their loans well then - who can we trust? With states and municipalities hurting from reduced tax revenues their bonds are being looked at with skepticism as well. The deflation crowd has scared bond interest rates to an all time low. The Federal Reserve has painted itself into a corner. If they keep rates this low for much longer then foreign investors will pull their funds out of the US since inflation seems to be much higher than interest rates. If they raise rates to attract foreign investment to purchase our debt it just might throw the fragile US economy into a tailspin. Their only choice is "quantitive easing" which is just a nice phrase for monetizing the debt which is highly inflationary. They can just keep the interest rates low, run the foreign capital away and buy the debt themselves with newly printed money (they just use fresh digits now, no need for all that messy ink and paper expense). After all, with most of our debt converted to short term debt a rise in interest rates would quickly send our deficits soaring (soaring even higher that is) just to pay the extra interest expense. So it seems that quantitive easing is just what the monetary doctor ordered. Who is hurt after all? EVERYONE who holds US dollars is hurt as their dollars are diluted. Anyone who saw the SNL skit a week ago with the Chinese official and President Obama not only got a good laugh but they also got a perspective from the Chinese side.
The total US government debt including the off budget items (unfunded promises to pay) is around 80 TRILLION dollars. If you divide that by the 308 million citizens you come up with a little over ¼ million dollars for every man, woman and child in the USA. That means that my little family of 4 is on the hook for a little over 1 million dollars of US debt. When you add the on and off budget yearly deficit you will find this number is growing at about another 8 trillion dollars/year with NO end in sight and no plan to stop its growth. If anything the growth is accelerating. Let's not even talk about the possibility of paying it down. These numbers can only end one way - DEFAULT. The creditors of the world are starting to get worried. Default can come in many different forms but they all mean the same thing. The promise to pay will be broken. Social security and other government recipients will not be paid, will be paid in worthless dollars, will be paid at a later age, will be paid after means testing, will have their health care rationed, etc. The end result is those who are counting on government promises will find themselves poorer for having done so. The great masses of citizens (and creditors) will not be happy.
The US Mint curtailed the sale of gold eagles and silver eagles last week after record sales this fall. Gold is rising in all currencies not just in US dollars. This is a vote of no confidence in governmental fiat money throughout the world. Premiums shot upward on Friday as gold and silver supplies tightened up. I have a feeling they will continue to rise on Monday. I only hope that gold and silver will continue to be available at any price as investors slowly realize that a little gold in their portfolio is prudent. (They may also want to lighten up on government promises or bonds.)
Remember there are 7 asset classes to invest in: stocks, bonds, commodities, cash, precious metals, income producing real estate and collectables. Spread your assets out. Make sure you are invested in all 7 classes. There are still bargains in the stock market in emerging markets, energy, agriculture and mining stocks. Make up your list and buy a little on pullbacks.
Throughout history whenever governments break their promises things can get a little messy. Check your bank out at www.bankrate.com. Make sure you have your funds at a 4 or 5 star rated bank or credit union. If your bank fails to measure up then move your funds to a safer bank. Move your stop losses up on your stocks and consider taking profits on some of your positions. Be aware that most of the market increase for the past ten years can be attributed to inflation or the shrinking dollar. The dollar we measure stocks with today is certainly not the same one we used 10 years ago. Put some of your cash in stronger foreign currencies of resource rich countries such as Brazil, Australia or Canada. This is easy to do now with ETFs or at Everbank.com. If you choose to hold bonds try to hold short bonds and look carefully at the bondholder's ability to pay. Just because they are guaranteed by the US government you should still be wary. A rise in interest rates will not hurt as bad if you are in shorter term bonds. Long bonds at the present low interest rate simply make no sense to me today. They are simply too dangerous as the exposure to rising rates could be catastrophic.
Remember to keep your debt low, save all you can and invest carefully in these markets. Most importantly, do not to forget your precious metals as this is your financial lifeboat. Always pray that you will never need your lifeboat, however, always make sure you have the best most seaworthy one you can afford close at hand. Buy some today and sleep better tonight.
Larry LaBorde
Silver Trading Company
318-470-7291
email: llabord@aol.com
To order Larry's new book: "Investing Without a Net" just go to his website.
Dubai
Yra Harris
We open tonight's notes with the sage words of Rudyard Kipling from the poem "IF."
"If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you," More…
"But make allowance for their doubting too."
These words we believe sum up the action that took place over the two days of Thanksgiving.
We were contemplating writing a piece Thursday evening but we just couldn't get enough info to substantiate what was taking place as traders we are aware of the impact of rumor and innuendo. We always view these twin sisters of havoc as a blessing and a curse. Rumors give rise to volatility and thus create opportunity but if we are in a position we know the pain of being stopped out on unsubstantiated info.
Now that we have had a few days to measure the Dubai news we can begin to understand its impact on the global financial markets. We were interviewed on CNBC and Bloomberg television on Friday and opined that the Dubai situation was a continuation of the global credit crisis and very much similar to the commercial real estate problems that overhang the U.S. credit markets.
Dubai is one of the seven Emirates and the one with the least amount of energy production. The authorities there had to find another source of economic growth. The Royals that administer Dubai thought to turn their principality into the financial and tourist center of the Gulf region. All was well so long as money flowed free and easy and the building boom went on, but as frequently happens, over building occurred and prices began to drop. Vacancies began to grow and the rents declined and debts couldn't be met. Many of the creditors believed that Abu Dhabi, the wealthiest of the Emirates, would make good on the debt even though there are no covenants to that effect. Bond prices dropped from par to forty cents on the dollar as the threat of default continued to grow. That was where the markets were with Friday's early close.
To make matters worse there was also an Islamic holiday which meant there was to be no official announcement until today. It now appears that the central bank of the U.A.E. is going to provide a funding facility to insure against default of Dubai debt. The sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi has a purported net worth of 650 billon dollars so there is certainly enough liquidity to support the entire Gulf region as the debtors and bondholders meet to do some type of work out on the debt.
As we caution you to keep your head you must look at the immediate impact.
First, we find it hard to believe that Abu Dhabi and some others didn't step in to buy the Dubai bonds on the very cheap knowing some action would take place to support the little brother Dubai.
Secondly, it is not in the interest of oil producers to see new stress in the global economy as the drop in oil would be far more costly then the any type of bailout.
Thirdly, we are going to have to see the impact on the nascent Islamic bond market that was created for Muslim investors and borrowers to be able to be part of the modern financial world and still adhere to the stricture of Sharia.
Fourthly, this event will put the inflation hawks at the Fed on hold as they wait to see the fallout on the lending patterns of the global banks.
U.S. banks have small exposure as most of the credit appears to have been extended by European consortiums and Islamic institutions - but again we don't know for sure because of the lack of transparency.
We will be watching as the world central banks will to see the impact on lending patterns after this hit is taken. The banks are cautious as they fear that more commercial real estate hits are coming.
We now have a good sense of why global debt and U.S. treasuries have performed so well. The lending institutions are so fearful of more such Dubai's and thus lock their money in sovereign debt.
Another story out this weekend came from China as the Politburo met Friday and decided it will "maintain the continuity and stability of economic policies, and continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy."
Thus we have some insight into what the Chinese are bringing to the global arena. Pressure will be brought to bear on the Chinese for Yuan appreciation but the pressure will be minimized by Chinese promises to lift domestic consumption by continued efforts to maintain growth at a bubble like level. Even the Europeans were rebuffed this weekend by the Chinese. Trichet and Juncker came away empty handed in their efforts to get the Chinese to provide any give on Yuan revaluation. Next time they should send that financial giant to Lady Ashton!
So with the Asian giant set to maintain domestic growth and the Dubai debt situation set to work out, we can begin to think about Thursday's Australian Bank meeting and of course Friday's unemployment report.
As Fred Flinstone might have said - Yaba daba DUBAI - as the cost of emerging from the stone age has been costly indeed.
Banche USA troppo liquide
Il titolo sembra quasi paradossale, ma pare proprio che sia così: l’ammontare delle riserve detenute dal sistema bancario statunitense supera il minimo obbligatoriamente richiesto dalla Federal Reserve di ben un trilione di Dollari (per capire meglio: 1.000 miliardi o, se preferite, un “uno” seguito da una sfilza di 12 zero!).
Prima che la crisi si intensificasse, nel settembre del 2008, le riserve in eccesso si dimensionavano in un paio di miliardi di Dollari.
La situazione sta sollevando molti dubbi e preoccupazioni, sia per il potenziale inflazionistico di tutta questa liquidità latente, sia, e soprattutto, perché denota la perdurante bassa propensione delle banche a concedere prestiti.
Sul primo aspetto, infatti, le banche potrebbero cominciare prima o poi ad attivare questi fondi per concedere nuovi prestiti, per sostenere il tessuto economico e per stimolare la domanda finale, e l’economia in generale, provocando, però, un ritorno delle pressioni inflazionistiche.
D’altro canto, finché permane questo eccesso di riserve (causato dalla stessa politica della Fed), non si può non pensare che i banchieri siano ancora molto nervosi e poco propensi a fare nuovi prestiti, preferendo attendere e mantenere inutilizzata l’abbondante liquidità disponibile, peraltro remunerata a tassi pressoché nulli.
Le banche USA, quindi, scelgono di sospendere o di limitare la concessione del credito, anziché rischiare di prestare male: ciò rappresenta - unitamente alla perdurante recessione occupazionale - uno dei principali freni alla ripresa del ciclo economico.
http://ac-finanza.investireoggi.it/banche-usa-troppo-liquide-815.html
Il Fini giustifica i mezzi
Non usa mezzi termini Gianfranco Fini per definire chi usa “qualche parola di troppo” nei confronti degli immigrati, che il presidente della Camera non esista a definire degli “stronzi”. Nel corso di un incontro nel centro ‘Semina’ con i ragazzini, per la maggioranza stranieri tra gli 8 e i 18 anni di età, della associazione ‘Nessun luogo e’ lontanò, Fini ha fatto diverse domande ai ragazzini presenti: “Qualche volta vi pesa essere qui? C’é qualcuno che ve lo fa pesare? O qualche volta c’é qualche stronzo che dice qualche parola di troppo?”. I ragazzini ridono e il presidente della Camera prosegue: “Uso questa parola perché se qualcuno dice che siete diversi la parolaccia se la merita: voi la pensate io la dico”.
(Gianfranco Fini, Ansa, 22 novembre 2009)
«L’alternativa al sistema resta la nostra strategia: un’alternativa politica che mira a restituire l’Italia agli italiani». (Gianfranco Fini, 20 gennaio 1987)
«Davvero è ineluttabile la trasformazione delle nostre città in metropoli della violenza multirazziale? Noi diciamo di no». (Gianfranco Fini, 9 agosto 1991)
(Dichiarazioni tratte da “Il fascista del 2000”, di Corrado De Cesare, e da “Settanta interviste a Fini”, a cura di Francesco Storace. Le ha raccolte e ripubblicate il quotidiano “Libero”, lo scorso 24 novembre 2009)
Il Msi (…) chiede che siano cacciati 1 milione e 700 mila stranieri (con una diffida a questori e prefetti), promette (se tutto questo non bastasse) un referendum per “fare pulizia”. Un’ avvisaglia che la prossima crociata del Movimento sociale in versione “partito del presidente” sarebbe stata la caccia all’ extracomunitario stava da una settimana su tutti i muri di Roma. Migliaia di manifesti fatti affiggere dal federale romano Teodoro Buontempo, contro gli stanieri che agli incroci lavano i vetri delle auto. “Lasciateci in pace ai semafori”, c’ è scritto (…) Ieri è sceso in campo Fini, il segretario generale (del Movimento sociale italiano), per annunciare agli italiani che se le norme che regolano l’ immigrazione non saranno modificate, naturalmente in senso restrittivo, il suo partito comincerà a raccogliere le firme per un referendum. Il solo pensiero di un referendum anti-immigrati lo accende: sarà un’ altra campagna dalla parte della gente, dice (…). L’ idea di fare da bandiera alla xenofobia non sempre latente e di scatenare in Italia un’ ondata in stile Le Pen è nata dall’ osservazione di cifre che Fini esibisce sdegnato: gli stranieri nel nostro paese sono il 2% della popolazione, gli extracomunitari in carcere sono il 15% dei detenuti (…)
(La Repubblica, 19 dicembre 2001)
L’ affermazione dell’ estrema destra in Francia è salutata con “viva soddisfazione” dai missini italiani. “Se con l’avanzata di Le Pen il partito socialista, e con esso il sistema, è crollato in Francia - dice il segretario nazionale Gianfranco Fini - in Italia il crollo dovrebbe riguardare tutto il contesto di forze politiche che compongono il governo”. Il movimento francese, noto per la sua marcatissima campagna razzista, figlio della destra più oltranzista, ha lo stesso simbolo del Movimento sociale: una fiamma tricolore. Perciò Fini si augura che i voti che quel movimento ha ottenuto dai francesi in questa tornata elettorale regionale (per Le Pen le previsioni erano addirittura superiori al risultato effettivamente conseguito, che si attesta intorno al 15 per cento dei voti) “è di buon auspicio per l’ affermazione della fiamma anche in Italia”.
(Gianfranco Fini, “La Repubblica”, 24 marzo 1992)
«Le Pen ha dimostrato il grande consenso che certi temi hanno nella società francese… e la situazione italiana, di qui a qualche anno, rischia di essere simile». (Gianfranco Fini, 27 Marzo 1992)
«La società multirazziale è un ibrido meticciato che scatena solo guerre tra poveri». (Gianfranco Fini, 4 aprile 1992)
«Ci accusano di razzismo? Rispondo con una frase di Mussolini: “Il razzismo è la sovrana imbecillità, roba per popoli biondi”. La verità è che noi ci batteremo fino in fondo contro la nascita di una società multirazziale. Si illude chi la immagina pacifica. La massicce immigrazioni che incombono sull’Italia provocherebbero fenomeni di acuta tensione sociale. Più che aprire le frontiere, occorre aiutare i popoli del terzo mondo intervenendo con investimenti economici e produttivi. Vorrei solo ricordare che in Somalia ci rimpiangono ancora» (Gianfranco Fini, 20 settembre 1992)
(Dichiarazioni tratte da “Il fascista del 2000”, di Corrado De Cesare, e da “Settanta interviste a Fini”, a cura di Francesco Storace. Le ha raccolte e ripubblicate ill quotidiano “Libero”, lo scorso 24 novembre 2009)
Il direttore della Caritas diocesana, monsignor Luigi Di Liegro, dice che lei e’ un razzista e che il suo arrivo in Campidoglio (ovvero sulla poltrona da sindaco di Roma, NdA) sarebbe un pericolo per tutti gli stranieri che vivono a Roma. “Per quanto riguarda l’ accusa di fomentare il razzismo e’ un’ idiozia bella e buona. Io non sono razzista, non lo e’ il Msi. Il razzismo e’ un’ autentica bestialita’ perche’ non esiste alcuna superiorita’ ne’ di razza, ne’ di lingua, ne’ di religione, ne’ di colore della pelle”. Le sue idee sull’ immigrazione? “Quanto al fatto che Di Liegro possa temere che con me ci sara’ un’ inversione di tendenza, ha ragione. Pero’ quella di Di Liegro e’ l’ affermazione di un politico, di un politico anche a corto di argomenti, piuttosto che quella di un sacerdote. Nel senso che lui finge di non distinguere i due livelli sui quali ci si deve muovere affrontando il problema dell’ immigrazione”. Quali sono i due livelli? “Il primo e’ quello dell’ amministrazione che deve prevenire situazioni di forte disagio, di emarginazione. Poi c’ e’ il livello di monsignor Di Liegro che e’ quello di aiutare gli stranieri disagiati. Per cui paradossalmente potrei dire: che qualora dovessi vincere le elezioni, Di Liegro si troverebbe nella condizione di poter lavorare molto meglio. Perche’ non avrebbe la necessita’ di aiutare, e lo dico senza ironia perche’ lui lo fa molto bene, 250-300 mila immigrati. Ce ne sarebbero sicuramente di meno. Ripeto: la politica previene, la Caritas e il volontariato intervengono nel momento in cui si creano situazioni di emarginazione”. Cosa intende per “prevenzione” nei confronti degli extracomunitari? “Primo: individuare e colpire gli sfruttatori. Quello dell’ immigrazione e’ un dramma che cresce perche’ c’ e’ chi ha tutto l’ interesse ad avere a Roma 250-300 mila disgraziati che devono in qualche modo mangiare. Perche’ si tratta di manodopera a costo molto basso, perche’ non si versano i contributi: non si puo’ intervenire su questo problema soltanto prendendosela con gli immigrati”. Cosa pensa quando incontra un nordafricano che vende ombrelli per strada? “Bisogna reprimere tutte le forme di accattonaggio, di ambulantato abusivo. Qui si sta verificando un razzismo alla rovescia: l’ altro giorno hanno sequestrato i fiori agli abusivi italiani davanti al cimitero. Non vedo perche’ , allora, non si prendono di mira tutti quelli che espongono le loro mercanzie per le strade: spesso gli stranieri vengono ignorati”. Da quale quartiere inizierebbe? “Il sindaco ha poteri in materia di igiene: allora sara’ necessario bonificare il quartiere Esquilino per arginare un fenomeno di altissimo allarme sociale”. Lei pensa al “numero chiuso” per gli stranieri? “Si’ “.
(Gianfranco Fini, intervista al Corriere della Sera, 8 novembre 1993)
«Sono contrario a concedere il voto amministrativo ai cittadini stranieri residenti in Italia… Non credo che l’ospite straniero possa avere gli stessi diritti dei cittadini italiani» (Gianfranco Fini, 4 dicembre 1993)
(Dichiarazioni sono tratte da “Il fascista del 2000”, di Corrado De Cesare, e da “Settanta interviste a Fini”, a cura di Francesco Storace. Le ha raccolte e ripubblicate ill quotidiano “Libero”, lo scorso 24 novembre 2009)
Il Fini giustifica i mezzi/2
December 1st, 2009Fini: “No ma lui, l’uomo (Berlusconi, NdA) confonde il consenso popolare che ovviamente ha e che lo legittima a governare, con una sorta di immunità nei confronti di… qualsiasi altra autorità di garanzia e di controllo… magistratura, Corte dei Conti, Cassazione, Capo dello Stato, Parlamento… siccome è eletto dal popolo…” E il procuratore della Repubblica Nicola Trifuoggi gli risponde: “E’ nato con qualche millennio di ritardo, voleva fare l’imperatore romano“. Replica Fini: “Ma io gliel’ho detto… confonde la leadership con la monarchia assoluta…. poi in privato gli ho detto… ricordati che gli hanno tagliato la testa a… quindi statte quieto”.
(Gianfranco Fini, Repubblica.it, 1^ dicembre 2009)
Mentre Fini, al telefonino, fa queste precisazioni le agenzie rilanciano le dichiarazioni di fuoco di Claudio Petruccioli, che critica un’ intervista che il leader di An ha rilasciato ieri alla Stampa. Fini aveva definito Mussolini “il piu’ grande statista del secolo”, mettendo in dubbio che Berlusconi sia in grado di eguagliarlo. “Berlusconi dovra’ pedalare per dimostrare di appartenere alla storia come Mussolini. Sappia, comunque, che due uomini identici non nascono in un anno e neanche in un secolo”. Petruccioli ribatte: “Lo stato delle liberta’ , quando era al potere “il piu’ grande statista del secolo”, e’ ben noto, come sono note le condizioni in cui lascio’ l’ Italia dopo un ventennio di dittatura. Non ha nulla da dire Berlusconi, il presidente del Consiglio in pectore, al quale Fini propone (per il vero con qualche scetticismo) un cosi’ alto modello? Glielo chiediamo di fronte agli italiani e glielo chiederemo davanti al Parlamento”. Risponde Fini: “Gli ex comunisti non si sono accorti che la campagna elettorale e’ finita, e continuano nel tentativo di demonizzare l’ avversario. Un tentativo, questo, che e’ gia’ stato punito dagli elettori”.
(Gianfranco Fini, Corriere della Sera, 2 aprile 1994)
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Due milioni di disoccupati, altro che ripresa!
Economiadi Carlo Cipiciani (Comicomix)
pubblicato il 1 dicembre 2009 alle 11:45 dallo stesso autore - torna alla home
Escono i primi dati sul mercato del lavoro in serie mensile e sono subito botte da orbi: record storico delle persone alla ricerca di un lavoro, calo dell’occupazione di 284 mila persone su base annua, disoccupazione giovanile alle stelle. E meno male che il peggio è passato
L’Istat ha pubblicato, ed è una novità, per la prima volta i dati mensili, aggiornati ad ottobre 2009, sul mercato del lavoro. Era un rilascio atteso, visto che gli ultimi indicatori avevano segnalato, secondo il governo, che la crisi era 
finita e stavamo ricominciando a risalire la china.
OCCUPAZIONE STAGNANTE – Forse sarà anche vero che il peggio è alle spalle. Ma dal comunicato Istat viene fuori che gli occupati ad ottobre sono 23,099 milioni, un dato che non cresce minimamente rispetto al mese precedente e neppure rispetto al picco negativo di giugno 2009. L’occupazione maschile a ottobre 2009 è pari a 13,801 milioni di unità con un incremento dello 0,2% rispetto al mese precedente (+31 mila unità) e una riduzione dell’1,5% (-217 mila unità) su base annua. L’occupazione femminile invece è pari 9,298 milioni di unità, con una riduzione rispetto a settembre dello 0,3% (-30 mila unità) e dello 0,7% (-67 mila unità) rispetto ad ottobre 2008.
RECORD DI DISOCCUPATI – Al contrario ad ottobre 2009 i disoccupati hanno varcato la soglia record dei 2 milioni. Non accadeva dal 2004. L’ aumento è di 39 mila persone (+2%) rispetto a settembre e di 236 mila (+13,4%) rispetto ad un anno fa. Il tasso di disoccupazione è salito all’8% dal 7,8% di settembre, con un aumento che rispetto ad un anno fa è dell’1%. Se si guarda dentro i dati, le cose peggiorano. La disoccupazione maschile è pari, in ottobre, a 1,025 milioni di unità, invariata rispetto al mese precedente, ma in aumento del 15,5% (138 mila unità) rispetto ad un anno fa. Il numero di donne disoccupate raggiunge le 979 mila unità, in crescita sia rispetto a settembre (+38 mila unità, pari al +4,1%), sia rispetto a ottobre 2008 (+98 mila unità, pari al +11,2%). Il tasso di disoccupazione giovanile – aggiunge l’istituto di statistica – a ottobre è aumentato al 26,9% dal 26,2% di settembre, con una crescita del 4,5% rispetto a ottobre dell’anno scorso.
L’AUMENTO DEGLI INATTIVI – E c’è un altro dato che va visto con preoccupazione: quello dei cosiddetti “inattivi”, cioè le persone che non provano neppure a trovare lavoro. E’ vero che in questa ampia categoria di oltre 14 milioni di persone ci sono anche le casalinghe e i giov
ani studenti. Ma l’aumento di 210 mila unità in un anno segnala soprattutto fenomeni legati ad un aumento del sommerso (che non è certo un buon segnale) o, peggio, dello “scoraggiamento”, cioè di quelle persone che smettono di cercare lavoro perché non si aspettano più di trovarlo.
OTTIMISMO DE CHE? – E’ il primo comunicato da quando l’Istat ha deciso questa modalità di comunicazione. Si può quindi vedere cosa è successo nei mesi di luglio, agosto e settembre 2009. E c’è poco da stare allegri: tra luglio e settembre 2009 ci sono state ben 108 mila nuovi disoccupati, 77 mila uomini e il resto donne. Gli occupati sono aumentati di appena 17 mila unità. E questo nonostante la cassa integrazione faccia segnare record su record. Soprattutto quella “straordinaria”, che segnala crisi strutturali: aziende in fallimento o quasi, per intenderci. Per chi non lo sapesse, i cassaintegrati sono considerati occupati a tutti gli effetti. In pratica, considerando i cassa integrati, abbiamo almeno un milione di forza lavoro ferma rispetto ad un anno fa. E niente lascia prevedere che le cose cambino a breve, anzi. Questo è il quadro dei dati, e non promette nulla di buono. Cosa ci sia da essere ottimisti, è un mistero che andrebbe chiarito da Berlusconi, Sacconi, Brunetta & c. Il ministro Tremonti, non a caso, da un po’ di tempo è diventato più prudente. E stavolta ha ragione lui.
http://www.giornalettismo.com/archives/43354/due-milioni-di-disoccupati-altro-che-ripresa/FINANZA/ 1. Le bolle speculative? Le ha inventate Enrico VIII
martedì 1 dicembre 2009
Questo anno ricorre il cinquecentesimo anniversario dell’ascesa di Enrico VIII al trono di Inghilterra. Secondo l’opinione di alcuni, il turbolento governo esercitato da Enrico spogliò il cattolicesimo corrotto del potere e delle ricchezze a vantaggio della Chiesa d’Inghilterra (della quale si era proclamato capo supremo) e dei suoi uomini liberi.
In realtà, l’interruzione dei rapporti con Roma e la soppressione dei monasteri nel Paese tolsero di mezzo i pilastri chiave che resistevano al potere del nazionalismo, dell’assolutismo e del capitalismo. Questo momento-chiave della storia ha in serbo lezioni di grande interesse per la religione, la politica e l’economia di oggi.
L’Inghilterra cessò di far parte di un impero medievale immenso, che si estendeva nell’Europa al di qua e al di là della Manica, e diventò invece uno Stato nazionale indipendente, sovrano, libero dalla “autorità di qualsiasi potentato straniero” - soprattutto dal Papa. Se mai si fosse perplessi circa le origini dell’euroscetticismo inglese, la risposta andrebbe cercata nella Riforma Protestante.
È evidente che la storia non finisce qui. La soppressione brutale dei monasteri nella seconda metà del decennio che partì nel 1530 consolidò l’assolutismo monarchico, creando le condizioni ottimali per la nascita del capitalismo. Cedendo le terre espropriate ai baroni in cambio del loro sostegno politico, Enrico non solo rese più forte la Corona rispetto alla Chiesa. Egli anche indebolì e distrusse la diffusa rete di ordini monastici che dal tempo della Conquista Normanna avevano aiutato a creare e sostenere il complesso sistema di associazioni intermedie che tendevano ad attenuare il potere centrale e a mediare fra gli individui e lo Stato, come realtà locali, corporazioni e comunità rurali.
Eliminando i monasteri e spezzando i legami con il papato, Enrico istituì il potere monarchico verticale attuando un controllo fiscale e un potere militare senza precedenti e gettando le basi di quel suo avventurismo in politica estera che in seguito isolò l’Inghilterra dal resto dell’Europa. Non c’è da meravigliarsi se Charles Dickens descrive il governo di Enrico come “una macchia di sangue e grasso sulla storia d’Inghilterra”.
La soppressione dei monasteri durante il regno di Enrico VIII e di suo figlio Edoardo VI portò a una cruciale ridistribuzione di un quarto della ricchezza nazionale a danno dei contadini. La dotazione dei monasteri, incluse le proprietà terriere, fu trasferita a una nuova corte, denominata “Court of Augmentations” e che rappresenta una specie di precursore dei quangos (quasi non-governmental organisations, cioè organizzazioni cui il governo ha devoluto un potere), responsabile appunto dell’espropriazione dei monasteri.
L’effetto fu triplice: eliminare la funzione sociale ed educativa degli ordini monastici, convogliare le ricchezze e le entrate nelle casse della Corona e concentrare la proprietà terriera nelle mani della nobiltà, dei magnati locali e della nuova “gentry” (piccola nobiltà) che veniva così dotata di terre. L’Inghilterra deve la centralizzazione del potere e delle ricchezze al suo figlio Enrico Tudor, la cui discutibile eredità è stata difesa con convinzione dalla Thatcher e dal suo successore Blair.
In seguito anche alla confisca forzata delle terre dei liberi proprietari agricoli per mano dei signori feudali durante il cosiddetto “enclosure movement” (recinzione dei campi comuni per destinarli all’allevamento, particolarmente delle pecore) nel corso di tutto il XVI secolo, la terra smise di essere una proprietà comune e diventò privatizzata.
Tale processo di “accumulazione primitiva” diede luogo a un’eccedenza di ricchezza che fu utilizzata per speculazioni finanziarie all’estero. Le classi dirigenti dirottarono le risorse al fine di aumentare le proprie ricchezze e il proprio potere. In questo modo, la perenne santità della vita e della terra fu subordinata alla sacralità secolare dello Stato nazionale e del mercato soprannazionale. Così è nato il capitalismo. Paradossalmente, la ricerca di Enrico della sovranità nazionale rese l’Inghilterra dipendente dai mercati esteri come mai in passato.
Per contrasto, altrove in Europa il papato e i monasteri continuarono a costituire un contrappeso rispetto ai monarchi secolari nazionali e ai loro vassalli. In tal modo, la Chiesa ritardò l’avvento del capitalismo. Nonostante la diffusa corruzione e inefficienza, gli ordini monastici conservarono un ampio spazio governato non dalla logica secolare della mercificazione e del profitto speculativo, bensì dall’imperativo religioso di sostenere le realtà locali e di praticare la carità.
Tutto ciò è importante oggi perché mostra che il capitalismo rafforza la sperequazione nei patrimoni su cui si fonda. Espropriazione e “accumulo primitivo” non sono un fatto eccezionale, bensì meccanismi ricorrenti per continuare a generare eccedenze di capitale, in quanto il valore monetario nominale delle attività diventa sempre più scollegato dal sottostante valore di beni e servizi reali. Questo fenomeno è noto come bolle speculative e porta alle conseguenze catastrofiche che ora ben conosciamo.
Le azioni di Enrico VIII mostrano anche che l’assolutismo secolare e il capitalismo difficilmente sono fattori di libertà individuale e prosperità per tutti. Abolendo l’opera di mediazione della Chiesa e di altre istituzioni associative, lo Stato centralizzato e il libero mercato hanno finito per associarsi a spese della società civile, le comunità locali e il benessere individuale.
In quest’ottica, il compito di chi è impegnato alla ricerca di un bene comune al quale ognuno possa prender parte, è costruire un nuovo sistema sociale ed economico che superi i vecchi confini tra il puramente religioso e l’esclusivamente secolare.
Proprio a causa della sua posizione privilegiata, la Chiesa d’Inghilterra ha il dovere di mettersi alla guida del dibattito sulla ridistribuzione delle attività, sui prezzi giusti, sui salari equi e su una cultura politica che unisca la libertà con la giustizia e l’eguaglianza dei diritti con una gerarchia di valori. La sacralità dello Stato e del mercato devono essere reinseriti in una società che difenda e sostenga la santità della vita e della terra.