Ipotesi Terza guerra mondiale

(qualcuno inizia a capire....... zio) Perchè? Perchè i paesi occidentali sono affossati dal debito e in ogni crisi, è sempre la guerra la via d'uscita. Allora, nel bel mezzo di questa crisi non ci avevo mai pensato e mai mi ero tanto interessato ad una possibile nuova guerra mondiale. Ma un giorno, in cerca di date e coincidenze come faccio sempre, mi sono trovato a pensare a come la nostra epoca fosse generalmente similare alla "Belle Epoque" che precedette la Prima Guerra Mondiale. Cos'era la Belle Epoque(1896-1914)? Era il boom dell'industria, delle nuove tecnologie, della creazione di nuovi reti stradali e ferroviarie, un periodo insomma di grande stabilità e di crescita di occupazione e lavoro(ovviamente non era paragonabile al benessere di adesso, ma importanti invenzioni come elettricità, acqua corrente, eccetera, divennero di uso quotidiano). Adesso noi dagli anni '80 fino ad adesso abbiamo conosciuto nell'Occidente un benessere mai visto prima, dato che la maggioranza della popolazione si è potuta permettere macchine, cellulari, vacanze,grandi quantità di cibi e la totalità dei servizi essenziali. Se ci pensate bene vista in un ipotetico futuro questa sembrerà un'epoca di grande benessere. Ma ora ci avviciniamo al centenario della Prima Guerra Mondiale, oggi qui voglio amaramente ipotizzare che dal 2011 al 2015 possa scoppiare la Terza Guerra Mondiale. Perchè? Perchè i paesi occidentali sono affossati dal debito e in ogni crisi, è sempre la guerra la via d'uscita. Quali saranno le cause? Possono essere molteplici, ma i focolai accessi di Iran e Corea del Nord, possono essere la cause più probabili. Quali saranno i fronti? Vi faccio una mia ipotesi a grandi linee: FRONTE OCCIDENTALE: USA,CANADA, AUSTRALIA, UNIONE EUROPEA(NON TUTTI I PAESI), ISRAELE,GIAPPONE,COREA DEL SUD, TAIWAN FRONTE "POPOLARE": IRAN, COREA DEL NORD, CINA, BRASILE, VENEZUELA, TURCHIA, PAESI ARABI(NON TUTTI), INDIA(?), RUSSIA(?) Questa è la mia ipotesi in base a recenti avvenimenti in atto, come l'alleanza fra Turchia, Brasile e Iran, le tensioni fra Corea del Nord e Sud dove la Cina parteggia per i primi, le provocazioni di Obama verso la Cina(armi a Taiwan, pressioni sullo Yuan, debito pubblico USA in mano ai cinesi). Un'altro segnale è il fatto che gli americani abbiano di fatto occupato Haiti per un futuro attacco all'antiamericana Venezuela di Chavez. Poi ci sono le tensioni russe con la Georgia filo-occidentale, le tensioni per lo scudo missilistico. India e Cina fanno esercitazioni militari assieme e vi ricordo che nel 2001 venne creato il gruppo cooperativo SCO tra Cina, Russia,Kazakistan,Kirghizistan, Tagikistan, Uzbekistan e sono osservatori Iran, Pakistan, Mongolia e India. Dei fronti si stanno delineando. TuttI noi speriamo che questa previsione sia errata, ma spero che queste considerazioni strategiche facciano comunque guardare con un altro occhio la situazione mondiale, che i nostri tg che pensano al Gossip e ai fatti di cronaca non considerano rilevante. Antanar 20.05.2010ComeDonChisciotte Forums-viewtopic-Ipotesi Terza guerra mondiale

Bracing for a Breakdown Dock Treece

Investors beware: The smell of a correction is heavy in the air. Even after the "Flash Crash" on May 6th, there are serious signs that the market is just beginning to recognize the current weakness in economies around the world, including that of the US.

Considering that we may very well be standing on the precipice of a substantial market correction, investors would be wise to consider this time to take earnings out of the market and begin accumulating cash positions.

After all, we've had a very nice run since the stock market bottomed in March of 2009. Fourteen months and more than 70% later, the market appears to be recognizing that there has been little or no real economic recovery to justify current prices - a fact we have reminded readers of for nearly a year.

Among other indicators, commodity prices are especially insightful about current economic weakness. The prices of oil and base metals have proven weak, and gold, despite hitting all-time highs earlier this month, has shown weakness since, as have gold stocks. [For more on this subject, see last week's article: Buying the Bull.] Even Jim Sinclair, a precious metals specialist and perhaps the authority on gold, has admitted in recent commentaries that gold may be in for some tough times ahead.

Proving particularly troublesome for commodities are the recent worries about ETFs. In many cases, investors are beginning to study ETFs closer, and are finding that, in many cases, they did not own what they thought. In some cases, they own nothing at all - except the promise of some unknown counterparty.

Exchange Traded Funds have been getting significant attention - and not the good kind - since the Flash Crash, as they were among the biggest losers. Of all the trades that were nullified by exchange officials following the May 6th turmoil, ETF trades accounted for more than 70%.

The basic concept having to be relearned following the Flash Crash is that technology (e.g.: computerized trading) and derivatives (e.g.: ETFs) simply do not mix. [Note: ETFs fall in the category of derivatives because share prices in ETFs are derived from the prices of underlying securities. However, shares in ETFs do not represent actual ownership of a portion of the fund's holdings.]

Oddly enough, this mix of derivatives and technology comprised the essence of portfolio insurance (a product that has since gone by the wayside) in 1987. For those who don't remember, portfolio insurance played a HUGE role in the 22% single-day decline on Black Monday in October of '87.

When it comes to investments, it is our opinion that there is only one computer with the capacity to make sound decisions, and it is found between the ears. After all, financial markets are NOT the study of mathematics, on which all complex trading algorithms are based. The financial markets are a study of behavioral psychology, and must be treated as such.

Over a year ago we wrote, but feel obligated to remind readers, that the only people who benefit from exotic new financial products (e.g.: ETFs, CDOs, CMOs) are the financial engineers who get paid to design them and the brokers who sell them. Quite frequently, even the designers fail to understand the implications of their inventions, as do most of the reps getting paid to push these products on the unsuspecting public.

We continue to feel that this will come out as a result of the SEC's investigations into major Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup (which owns Smith Barney along with Morgan Stanley), Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley. When the dust finally settles, the public will also be keenly aware of these firms' [lack of] fiduciary responsibility that allowed them to get rich at the expense of their clients.

Obviously Goldman Sachs seems to be an especially strong focus of attention from regulators, and the firm will probably fare far worse than many of its peers. Judging by everything that has come out so far about this major Wall Street player, it seems they brought it on themselves. According to a recent Bloomberg article, in the first quarter of this year Goldman was able to make trading profits every single day, while its clients have lost money in seven of Goldman's nine "recommended top trades for 2010" (Xie, Goldman Sachs Hands Clients Losses...).

Dock David Treece

Dock David Treece is a registered investment advisor with Treece Investment Advisory Corp (www.TreeceInvestments.com) and the Chief Compliance Officer of Treece Financial Services. After graduating from the University of Miami (FL), Dock immediately joined his family's firm. Dock has worked in the investment business under the tutelage of his father since an early age and also for several other financial firms including Franklin Templeton Investments and John Hancock Financial Network. His family's firm runs what they term "a hedge fund for the common man," employing an active investment strategy that is economics-driven and utilizes concentrated portfolios. His writings have been regularly featured in the Toledo Free Press (www.ToledoFreePress.com) as well as GreenFaucet.com (www.GreenFaucet.com), where he serves as an editor. Dock David carries Series 7, 24, 27, and 66 licenses. The above information is the express opinion of Dock David Treece and should not be construed as investment advice or used without outside verification.

Copyright © 2010 Dock David Treece

Dow Drop Likely Caused By Intentional Liquidity Cutoff Bob Chapman

The initial official excuse for such a perceptions drop in the Dow was a wrong keystroke, which is ludicrous.

Then there is the almost total control by Goldman Sachs of the market and control via the Supplementary Liquidity Provider. All they have to do is cut off liquidity and the market plunges. Thus, there is no question in our minds that Goldman attacked the market and took it down to let House and Senate members know that they can make the market do whatever they please with the full cooperation of the SEC and CFTC, this convinced lawmakers that the Illuminist threat was very real. There would be no breakup of too big to fail banks and no real audit of the Fed. The public would be thrown a bone. This is a good reason why program trading has to end and why derivatives have to be abolished. This is all a reflection of two sets of justice. One for the elitists and one for us. This also shows us that crime pays. It also proves our country is under the financial control of terrorists. This power has to be taken away from these criminals. The legal way to do that is by throwing most all of Congress and the Senate out of office. Then we will have a chance to save our country. Otherwise you will see this all move into the streets.

This same cabal has arranged for Europe’s $1 trillion bailout, which will not be successful and they know that. As a result the euro has fallen from $1.50 and is approaching $1.20. Could it be that the euro could go to parity? Yes, of course, it could. Then what or who is next? The pound, yen and then the dollar? Then we ask, “Who will save them?” Who will rescue the world from deflationary depression and another planned world war? You say they actually plan wars? Well, of course, they do. How do you think we were able to predict a 9/11, and the wars and occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan? They were profitable diversions for the Illuminists. They kept the potboiling and sidetracked public thinking away from economic and financial problems. The propagandized and mindless public did not know they were being bamboozled again. In the meantime the Trilateralists tell us Israel should be attacking Iran, which in part proves our point. It is now just a question of when. Hasn’t the world public been deceived enough? When are they going to catch on? Do we have to pound it into their heads with a hammer? Of course, in time this is going to affect the dollar, particularly versus gold, which is the world’s ultimate currency. What will the world say when it discovers the US has little or no gold left? Will by that time 25% to 50% unemployed stand still and tolerate this crime? Will they riot and demand changes? Of course, they will and the elitists won’t listen, which will bring about their demise, as masters of the universe. This is why November’s election is so important. It is the last hope of changing our country without resorting to protest in the streets, as we are now seeing in the streets of others. What happens when Americans find out we have no gold left? That it was wasted in an attempt to cover up the seriousness of our collapsing economic and financial system that was being systematically looted. America is just as bad off as Europe. How can throwing money and credit at the system solve the problem? How can austerity solve the problem? It has all gone to far. The world has to have depression – there is no other solution. These are all legitimate questions, because no one is safe or exempt. Government cannot and does not even want to protect you. We no longer have a sovereign government; we have an ongoing criminal enterprise controlling our country. What we have seen over the past several years, what could never happen, has already happened. What is to come is going to be a nightmare.

World markets are dysfunctional and stability doesn’t exist. Man set distortions and economic imbalances - a system that functions without regulation, derivatives and unbridled and unfettered speculation, surrounds us. Leveraged speculation dominates the markets, particularly debt instruments. Unfortunately, this speculation is fostered by government and central banks perpetual willingness to bail out everyone in banking and finance just to keep the system afloat.

This brings us to the dilemma of Greece again. Eurozone policymakers, bankers and governments have been caught again perpetuating imprudent lending to a profligate Greece, whose leadership for years lied to the Greeks, kept two sets of books and were aided and abetted by international elitist bankers, such as Goldman Sachs. Those in authority in the eurozone and the bankers knew exactly what was going on. They deceived everyone in the eurozone including the Greeks. They did this because they knew the public would be called upon to bail them out in a European version of TARP, which was used to bailout the American financial community that was elitist connected. Our markets have been dominated by this cabal of crooks for the past 15 years. They held one interest rate for all to the limits, and the result of that is the deplorable financial condition not only in Greece, but in Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy as well. This situation was allowed to flourish. The ECB should get no sympathy, because they did what they did knowingly. They have been monetizing just like the Federal Reserve for the past seven years. The creation of money and credit slowed over the past year, but it will have to resume if Europe and the US expect to survive financially and economically.

Even with the problems we have seen over the past two years and 10 months, now those in Europe you would think would realize how serious these situations are. Now we have debtors in trouble having to lend to serious debtors in more serious trouble. That surely doesn’t make things better; it makes them worse. Incidentally, these are the people who caused the problems in the first place. They knew and we know, no matter what they say that their policies are unsound, unstable and unsustainable. As a result they are faced with a collapsing market for sovereign debt, which is affecting other debt and stocks worldwide. The fact that the Fed failed to solve the credit crisis and affect a recovery tells us that they are ineffective and the ECB is no more competent as well. Debt contagion is on and will sweep the world. Dead beats are dead beats even if they are sovereign nations.

theinternationalforecaster.com

Valori - Finanza globale

Schäuble al FT: «I mercati sono ancora fuori controllo»

«I mercati sono ancora davvero fuori controllo», e per questo è necessario applicare al più presto nuove regole per renderli sicuri e stabili. A dichiararlo è stato il ministro delle Finanze della Germania, Wolfgang Schäuble, in un’intervista pubblicata questa mattina sul Financial Times. Le dichiarazioni del membro del governo guidato da Angela Merkel arrivano a pochi giorni dalla decisione unilaterale di Berlino di applicare nel proprio Paese un’interdizione delle vendite allo scoperto, finalizzata alla limitazione delle attività speculative, che lo stesso Cancelliere ha confermato essere «a tempo indeterminato». «Sono convinto che il sistema non sia ancora sotto controllo: serve una regolazione efficace, ovvero la creazione di meccanismi che governino correttamente nei mercati». Questi ultimi, infatti «non funzionano se rischi e benefici sono sbilanciati: per questo abbiamo bisogno di trasparenza, anche in ragione della complessità delle tecnologie moderne. Una chiave può essere la standardizzazione dei prodotti finanziarie».

Schäuble si è poi detto convinto della necessità di regolare i mercati over-the-counter. «Ma dobbiamo anche focalizzare la nostra attenzione sul rapporto esistente tra le transazioni effettuate sulle piattaforme tradizionali e il reale scambio di beni e servizi. Troppo spesso non c’è correlazione tra i due aspetti: comprendo la necessità di nuovi strumenti finanziari, ma i profitti minimi del 25% sono semplicemente inimmaginabili nell’economia reale», ha concluso il ministro, stigmatizzando in tal modo gli “eccessi” di alcuni prodotti che promettono rendimenti altissimi.

LA TEGOLA DEI DERIVATI: DOPO LA GRECIA PUO’ TOCCARE ALL’ITALIA ? Data: Giovedì, 20 maggio @ 07:35:01 CDT Argomento: Italia DI PIETRO CAMBI crisis.blogosfere.it

Quante volte ho scritto della mia impressione che i massimi decisori della finanza internazionale fossero, in fondo, degli apprendisti stregoni?

Come Topolino nella celeberrima scena di Fantasia, a questi apprendisti era parsa una buona idea farsi aiutare da tanti "servitori virtuali" a fare i lavori di casa. Ovvero, nel loro caso, a raddrizzare istituti in sofferenza, deficit crescenti,economie barcollanti, stili di vita dissipativi e non compatibili con il bilancio tra dare ed avere, dalla scala del singolo a quella del "sistema paese".

Per non parlare, ovviamente, della vitale necessità di mantenere la sempiterna crescita dell'economia, sola speranza di tappare i buchi nella sempre più rammendata tela di Penelope che instancabilmente tessevano.

Quel che succedeva a Topolino è ben noto: gli aiutanti "magici", virtuali, gli prendevano la mano e cominciano a fare troppo, troppo in fretta, ciecamente ed implacabilmente.

E' quello che è successo con i famigerati "strumenti derivati", che purtroppo sono stati proposti in modo crescente, anche nel nostro bel paese.

Con quel quid, ovviamente, che sempre ci caratterizza.

Non solo ai risparmiatori più in vena di rischiare, quindi, ma anche alle nostre sgangheratissime amministrazioni locali, con il bel risultato che al deficit di bilancio "strutturale" di molte di queste si è sommato un ulteriore, GRANDE, disavanzo dovuto alle spericolate operazione finanziarie fatte con i loro ( ovvero nostri) soldi nel rarefatto mondo della finanza virtuale.

Poi sono arrivate, immancabili come la pioggia a Primavera, le rogne di stagione.

Dopo gli ultimi tre anni e specialmente le ultime tre settimane, i singoli governi e paesi cercano di smarcarsi, porgendo il fiero ed amaro calice del rischio sistemico ai loro vicini, ad esempio proibendo i giochi più sporchi sulle proprie piazze ( nel caso specifico le vendide allo scoperto dei titoli derivati ) lasciando che a giocare con il fango ( e/o scherzare con il fuoco) siano i suddetti vicini. In questo contesto, improvvisamente occhiuto ( ovviamente sempre e solo sulle malefatte altrui ) anche queste cosuccie e peccatucci vengono all'"improvviso" a galla. Si tentano strani paralleli, tra economie porcine e quindi, per definizione, peracottare e bancarottiere.

Ad esempio Grecia ed Italia, ambedue viste come malfidate, inaffidabili, furbastre e levantine. in breve: "una faccia una raza" Esagero? Beh...

Il pm che ha sviluppato l'indagine sulle immancabili malversazioni connesse al business dei derivati "pubblici"nella requisitoria di apertura del processo, a Milano, ha affermato che l'esposizione degli enti locali ed istituzioni varie italiche sul mercato dei derivati, se compiutamente compresa nella sua estensione e gravità, potrebbe far perdere di botto credibilità ( quel che ne resta) al ns paese, scaraventandoci immediatamente accanto alla Grecia.

Non si è inventato nulla.

I rischi connessi al mercato dei derivati erano già chiari ALMENO 3 anni fa e lo prova , nero su bianco, un documento, presentato dal Direttore Generale della Banca D'Italia, in occasione di una audizione presso la VI Commissione parlamentare. Potete leggere qui quale fosse la situazione ad Agosto 2007, appena prima dell'esplosione della bolla dei Subprime, innesco per la Crisi Mondiale.

In sintesi:l'esposizione, dichiarata in rapida crescita, degli enti locali era stimata essere intorno ad un miliardo di euro.

Si evidenziava, comunque, l'urgenza di una riforma, di leggi, di regole, che impedisse agli amministratori locali, dato l'evidente conflitto di interessi potenziale, di deliberare investimenti in questi settori ad alto rischio.

Cosa successe, in seguito a quella audizione?

pooco, molto poco, quasi nulla.

L'unico vero intervento sul punto fu ( ma c'era bisogno di dirlo?) una puntata di Report , qualche mese dopo, ad Ottobre, quando il bubbone si stava ingigantendo e la bolla dei Subprime era appena esplosa.

L'andazzo continuò ed anzi si intensificò, approfittando del (bipartisan) vuoto legislativo, mentre i nosti fini decisori si affannavano a concepire social card ed altre creative trovate anticrisi.

I nostri amministratori locali, forse dolosamente, come sostiene il PM prima citato, continuarono ad investire soldi pubblici in operazioni azzardate che garantivano, in ogni caso, immediati ed importanti introiti all'intermediario finanziario.

Il documento finale della Commissione di inchiesta parlamentare, solo due mesi fa aveva concluso senza evidenziare un rischio sistemico per le finanze locali e/o nazionali ma solo isolati casi, sfortunate circostanze, congiunzioni astrali sfavorevoli, che avevano portato alcune amministrazioni ad inguaiarsi. Risolvibili con alcune ben definite modifiche. Ovviamente niente si è fatto, tutto è a mezz'aria, essendo il Governo ( ma c'e' bisogno di dirlo?) in altre faccende affaccendato.

A parte il caso eclatante del Comune di Recanati, che, qualunque siano i numeri, barcolla sotto il peso delle proprie "sfortunate" speculazioni, arrivando perfino a meritare un articolo del Washington Post , erano decine, forse centinaia le amministrazioni inguaiate.

La Consob, sollecitata dall' Adusbef, aveva preso severi provvedimenti.

Ovviamente NON contro i propri associati, ovvero gli istituti finanziari che avevano proposto quegli strumenti di sterminio finanziario di massa AD ENTI ED AMMINSTRAZIONI PUBBLICHE, ovviamente amministrati da implumi, inani ed inetti figuri ( anche complici? Si vedrà, anche in base a quel che succede nel processo di Milano).

No, la Consob aveva severamente punito...l'Adusbef stessa.

Come potrete vedere da soli in questa lettera aperta, quanto furente del Presidente della Adusbef stessa.

OVVIAMENTE, via via che l'incendio si allarga i distinguo fioccano/abbondano e germogliano come asparagi di stagione.

Siamo arrivati, dati recenti MA non definitivi, ad una esposizione di ben 35 miliardi , quasi tutti, quindi, contrattati DOPO la trasmissione di report e l'audizione alla VI commmissione del 2007.

La CONSOB, nel suo piccolo, si emenda e si ricostruisce una plasticosa verginità.

Non sono ovviamente il solo ad aver affrontato questi problemi ed il loro contributo al rischio sistemico.

un esempio di un post chiarificante, con anche un interessante battibecco tra i commenti, lo trovate qui .

Per come vanno le cose è facile che, a parte il rischio, certo non remoto, che qualcuno decida che l'Italia è scarsamente affidabile perchè trucca i conti, esattamente come la Grecia, ci saremmo potuti risparmiare la manovra economica lacrime e sangue che si profila rapidamente all'orizzonte.

Ovviamente SE i nostri decisori avessero bloccato questo genere di operazioni quando fu lanciato l'allarme, ovvero, ufficialmente e provatamente ( oltre che in modo esaustivo) nell'Agosto 2007.

La manovra economica di Tremonti è di 26 miliardi di euro, pare.

L'esposizione dei nostri vari enti è è di ALMENO 39 miliardi di euro.

Pere e mele non si confrontano?

Certo. Resta il fatto che di questi 35.5 miliardi di euro una certa, probabilmente non trascurabile, percentuale è GIA' sicuramente persa.

Il resto potrebbe esserlo entro breve.

In ogni caso per le banche è stato, è, sarà, un ottimo affare.

Le commissioni per il riscatto anticipato si pagano.

Stime prudenti parlano, al minimo, di miliardi di euro. Pietro Cambi Fonte: http://crisis.blogosfere.it Link: http://crisis.blogosfere.it/2010/05/la-tegola-dei-derivati-dopo-la-grecia-puo-toccare-allitalia.html 20.05.2010

Questo Articolo proviene da ComeDonChisciotte http://www.comedonchisciotte.org/site L'URL per questa storia è: http://www.comedonchisciotte.org/site/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=7072

Curiositàdi Pietro Salvato

Con la crisi anche le pornostar tirano la cinghia

pubblicato il 20 maggio 2010 alle 11:18 dallo stesso autore - torna alla home

Anche il mercato del porno risente della recessione. In America, dove il “business” fattura ogni anno diversi miliardi di dollari, sono calate le vendite, tanto che c’è chi ha chiesto addirittura “una mano” al Congresso. Intanto, è stata pubblicata la lista delle sette attrici hard più ricche del mondo.

Intorno al mondo della pornografia ruota un vorticoso giro di soldi. Film, canali televisivi dedicati, porno-shop e soprattutto internet, eppure come recita l’antico adagio popolare “non è tutto oro quello che luccica”. L’aumento dell’offerta di video hard ha provocato, infatti, una contrazione delle vendite dei singoli film. Non solo, la grande recessione economica mondiale ha toccato anche questo settore. Secondo il produttore e fondatore della famosa rivista Hustler, Larry Flynt: “A causa della recessione attuale, gli americani sono troppo depressi per essere attivi sessualmente. E questo è un male per il paese: gli americani possono cavarsela senza auto, ma non senza sesso“.

IL PORNO IN ITALIA - Partiamo dal nostro paese, dove la pornografia in questi anni si è costruita comunque una sua rilevante nicchia di mercato. Secondo i dati più recenti disponibili, in Italia vengono prodotti ogni anno circa cinquecento film a “luci rosse”, ci sono una quarantina di case di produzione specializzate “per soli adulti” ed almeno 3.500 Sexy shop sparsi su tutto il territorio nazionale. Un giro d’affari che si aggira, tenendo conto anche degli introiti derivanti da “pay per view”, dvd, internet, lingerie, riviste ed oggettistica varia, in circa 900 milioni di euro. Internet, in particolare, segna numeri da capogiro. 1 milione e 900 mila siti dedicati all’argomento ed almeno 20mila chat. Anche le “hot line” telefoniche hanno riscosso un buon successo. Bene anche l’import. Tremila i film a luci rosse ogni anno sbarcano in Italia contro i 600 di qualche anno. I nostri principali “partner”? Prevalentemente i paesi dell’Asia, del Nord Europa ed ovviamente gli Usa. Oggi, tuttavia, un titolo di successo mediamente vende nel nostro paese attorno alle 700 copie mentre solo 15 anni fa toccava le 2.500. Di conseguenza, un film a luci rosse per essere considerato un “successo” deve vendere almeno 1.000 copie. Questo per quanto riguarda il mercato “ufficiale”, infatti, la pirateria e il “nero” sono presentissime anche in questo campo.

QUANTO GUADAGNA UNA PORNOSTAR IN ITALIA? - Nei film amatoriali, la paga di un’attrice varia dai 500 ai 1.500 euro. Per una singola scena, se particolarmente spinta, si può arrivare anche a 250 euro. Va peggio ai colleghi maschi, che percepiscono in media una paga di circa 200 euro. Per i film “professionali”, quelli dove c’è il “casting” e una vera “pre e post” produzione, il prezzo di una scena hard si aggira intorno ai 700-1.000 euro. Una pornostar percepisce in media 5.000 euro a film, ma le case di produzione arrivano anche a spendere 50-80 mila euro per avere una superstar internazionale femminile del porno. Tra i vari “generi”, ormai i film con “trama” non vengono o quasi più girati, nel nostro paese sono molto gettonati “l’anal”, il “gonzo”, la “gang bang” e, ultimamente, il genere a sfondo “transessuale”.

LA RECESSIONE DELLA LIBIDO? - “Il Congresso sembra voler aiutare le imprese più importanti e noi riteniamo di meritare la stessa attenzione” lo affermava l’anno scorso Joe Francis, produttore della serie di dvd hard “Girls gone Wild”. Francis ed altri produttori dell’ “Hard biz” hanno chiesto al Congresso americano un piano di salvataggio comparabile a quello approvato per il settore delle auto, con un assegno di 5 miliardi di dollari. “In quest’ultimo caso confidiamo nella genialità di Obama, che dopo aver concluso un patto per il disarmo nucleare con la Russia di Putin, dovrà fronteggiare al ritorno in patria l’ira dei manager che con il calo dei profitti non riescono più a comprare la loro scorta quotidiana di Dvd” ha chiosato ironicamente Larry Flynt. Rocco Siffredi, attore e produttore, l’italiano più noto nel mondo globale della pornografia, non usa mezzi termini per definire la situazione critica dell’industria del settore. “Vedere filmini gratis è bello, non lo nego, è alla portata di tutti, è una cosa di grande libertà e democrazia – dice Siffredi – ma ormai di amatoriale non c’è più quasi niente e a farla da padrone sono le clip di film piratati. Ieri è uscito in America il mio ultimo film e già mi hanno riferito che si può trovare gratis su uno di quei siti. La pirateria è globale e rischia di uccidere tutta l’industria. È un problema grave, ne va della qualità di un film ma anche proprio dell’esistenza stessa delle società di produzione. I nostri filmini su YouPorn non hanno per noi alcun incasso, a guadagnarci sono solo i proprietari di questi domini internet“. La crisi ha colpito pure il Giappone, tanto che la GDH-Gonzo, società che produce famosi video e riviste manga a sfondo sessuale, ha previsto un taglio di 50 dipendenti ed una riduzione del 50% della propria produzione nel campo dell’animazione.

LE SETTE MERAVIGLIE DEL PORNO - Ecco la lista delle più ricche pornostar della storia, un gruppo di star eterogeneo che sono diventate negli anni – almeno per qualcuno – vere e proprie icone culturali, celebrate e vituperate, ma che a loro modo hanno segnato un’epoca. In settima posizione troviamo “Huston”, pornostar americana originaria del Texas, famosa per il suo “The World’s Biggest Gangbang 3: Houston 620″, girato nel 1999. Il 620 è, appunto, il suo record. Sesso con 620 uomini, non-stop. Da quando è stata scoperta nel 1995, quando lavorava come spogliarellista al Tropicana, Houston ha intrapreso la sua dorata carriera nel porno. Infatti, guadagna qualcosa come 1 milione di dollari all’anno. In sesta posizione troviamo Hillary Scott, una “baby face” che – come ricordano le sue note biografiche – ha fatto per la prima volta sesso “lesbo” alla tenera età di 11 anni. Nel 2006 si è aggiudicato il “Best Oral Sex Scene” bissato l’anno successivo col “Best Group Sex Scene”. Ultimamente si sta imponendo nel genere “DP”. Anche lei guadagna intorno al milione di dollari l’anno. Quinta in classifica è Maria, alias Rika Inoue attrice di origine giapponese. Nel suo paese guadagna qualcosa come 300.000.000 di Yen, ossia circa 2,6 milioni di $. Sembra sia una vera stakanovista del sesso. L’anno scorso ha ammesso di aver fatto sesso praticamente tutti i giorni! In quarta posizione troviamo il solo “maschietto” in classifica. Il famoso Ron Jeremy, a suo modo una legenda del porno. Famoso per le sue grandi “innaffiate”, Ron ha girato pure all’estero. In Italia è famoso per la celebre interpretazione di “Maradona” in Cicciolina e Moana al mondiali (1990). Complessivamente sembra abbia girato più di 2.000 film.

IL PODIO HARDCORE - Il gradino più basso del podio va a Jasse Jane che deve la sua carriera – dice – alla seconda in classifica Tera Patrick. Jasse oltre ad una copiosa filmografia – celebri sono le sue doti, diciamo così, “orali” – ha intrapreso anche la via del business con la sua “linea dedicata” ai sex toys “firmati”. Finora ha guadagnato qualcosa come 8 milioni di dollari. Seconda in classifica è, come anticipato, Tera Patrick. Ex infermiera dai tratti somatici asiatici, il numero a lei dedicato di Hustler è stato quello più rapidamente andato esaurito della storia. Famosa per lo “swallow” (l’ingoio) ha dichiarato recentemente: “Quando ho iniziato ho fatto fare milioni agli altri. Ora li fanno per me“. Infatti, ha fondato una delle più grosse case di produzione a luci rosse. Guadagna circa 30 milioni di dollari l’anno! La più ricca, infine, è la famosissima Jenna Jameson. La vera regina del porno. Anche lei oggi fa la produttrice, guadagna tra royalities e attività varie qualcosa come 35 milioni di dollari l’anno! Ha iniziato con i film “girl on girl” (genere lesbo), preferenza che ha mantenuto anche nella vita privata, sembra. Quando si dice un “moneyshot”, fatto per bene…

$1800 - $2000 gold this year - and $30 silver - James Turk Lawrence Williams

With a prediction of a $1,800 to $2,000 gold price this year, and $8,000 by 2015, James Turk sticks to his earlier forecasts in presentation at London conference.

In the closing keynote on the first full day of the 2010 World Mining Investment Conference in London yesterday, James Turk, founder of Gold Money, opened by reaffirming his prediction made at the end of last year that gold could reach $8,000 an ounce by 2015, based on past patterns of surges in the gold price. What may be even more encouraging for the general investor is that his forecast also suggests that the Dow Jones Index would rise to similar levels as the world finally pulls out of recession, with the gold price matching the Dow index number. When asked at the end of his talk where he felt the gold price would be at the end of the current year, he reckoned around $1,800 to $2,000 - and also predicted that the more volatile silver price would achieve a level of $30 this year.

Turk bases his forecasts very much on past performance - but even as the prediction may seem extreme, to some, the sting in the tail is that he does not see these levels in the gold price, or Dow, as suggesting real increases in wealth. Rather, such an increase would serve only as wealth preservation as the purchasing power of most currencies is devalued in a hyper-inflationary environment due to the huge volumes of fiat money being pumped into the market by governments in an attempt to stave off global recession. He affirmed that he felt it was folly for governments to think they could spend their way out of trouble.

Turk pointed out that over the past years gold has been rising at double digit percentage levels against all major currencies - or perhaps rather that all major currencies have been devaluing against gold which he feels represents the only real money. Silver too has risen on average against all the currencies in double digit annual percentage increases, but with rather more volatility, as proof of this Turk points out the sharp fall silver experienced in 2008 and its subsequent strong recovery in 2009.

He calls gold the 'canary in the monetary coal mine' and he agrees with GATA that governments and Central Banks have been trying to limit gold price increases over the years, in the same way that they try to control currency fluctuations.

Turk illustrated his talk with charts and tables illustrating his key points and makes an impressive, but overall worrying, case for gold and silver given that despite the big increases he sees ahead, all he feels this will do is protect asset values, rather than increase them in real terms, which is really bad news for savers!

In other points during the presentation, Turk pointed out that there may be gains to be made in gold stocks as his charts show that the gold stock XAU index looks cheap, but cautions that gold mining stocks are not gold, but investments which brings both upside and downside risk into play in relation to the metal itself.

He also showed that over 60 years, the oil price which has risen sharply in all major currencies, has effectively been absolutely flat in terms of both gold and silver, apart from very minor short term fluctuations, as an indicator of the precious metals' wealth preservation characteristics.

www.mineweb.co.za

Strategic mortgage defaults the next time bomb Sol Palha

We spoke of this issue several months ago and stated that we were possibly in the midst of a new trend. We no longer need to ponder about this anymore; we are, in fact witnessing a new trend.

The 1st groups of defaulters were individuals who were conned into buying houses at teaser rates and had a very hard time making payments when rates reset to market rates. The next group was individuals with decent to good credit; this group started to default because one or both members of the family lost their jobs, and therefore, they could no longer make payments on the mortgage.

Now we have the next wave; the strategic defaulters. This group's decision to default is based on cold logic. The value of the home of their homes has dropped so much that it no longer makes sense to make payments on a house that is trading well below market value.

"Strategic" defaults accounted for at least 12 percent of all defaults in February, up from about 4 percent in mid-2007, according to a recent Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS - News) report. Analysts led by Vishwanath Tirupattur classified a default as strategic when a homeowner who hadn't previously been delinquent made an on-time mortgage payment one month; skipped payments for the next three months; and stayed current on other consumer debt of $10,000 or more. Full Story

In a way this it's payback time for the banks; the banks swindled millions of innocent homeowners when they turned a blind eye and even encouraged the sale of fraudulent mortgages via the liar loan application process. When the S**T hit the fan, these miserable banks came running to Washington and like faithful concubines, Washington bailed them out with taxpayer dollars. In effect these scoundrels were rewarded for their illegal activities. Note that not one banker has been jailed yet for the housing mess.

Wall Street has created an environment that promotes theft and fraud; the masses have now decided that it's times to give these chaps a taste of their own medicine. Note also that our Adult index clearly illustrates that morality as we know is now a thing of the past. If this new trend picks up steam, a massive wave of new defaults could hit the market, further souring an already weak real estate market. As they say you reap what you sow, the banks have sowed crap, so they are going to reap even more crap.

Conclusion

Housing analysts say strategic defaults mainly occur when a home's value has dropped below the balance remaining on the mortgage. A homeowner in that position may decide that continuing to make payments is throwing money away, or may default to get the lender to modify the loan. All told, borrowers who aren't making mortgage payments are probably skipping roughly $100 billion annually, an amount equal to 1 percent of consumer spending, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. Zandi likens the money to "a form of stimulus, a little tax cut." Full Story

Zillow.com states that one in five U.S. homes with a mortgage has "negative equity" so the number of potential strategic defaulters is rather huge; what we have on our hands is a ticking time bomb and purchasing real estate now is one of the dumbest moves an investor could make.

Long term the trend for housing is still down. Individual that are bearish can use strong rallies to short stocks in the housing sector such as LEN, BZH, etc. ETF players can open up positions in REK, SRS, and if you really want to take an aggressive position you can short via Direxion's DRV. SKF is another option; it is an ETF that shorts the financial sector

Here is another fact to consider. Many of the chaps who are opting to strategically default understand that most banks are reluctant to foreclose immediately on homes that had a value of over 300,000. The higher the value, the less reluctant the banks are to foreclose. The reason is simple. Once they foreclose, they can no longer lie and pretend that the house is worth 500,000, they now have to register the true value of the house and in most cases it is significantly lower than the existing mortgage. If they did this to all their properties the profits they are now claiming would drop significantly or completely vanish. In most cases banks wait up to 2 years to foreclose. In that time, a person could save a significant amount of money as they would be living rent free and that's another reason why so many are choosing to strategically default.

Copyright © 2010 Sol Palha

Sol Palha | Tactical Investor | 38-11 Ditmars Blvd. Astoria, NY, 11105 | Email

www.tacticalinvestor.com

Uncle Scam Peter Souleles B. Com. LLB.

Don't blame money for the current Global Financial Crisis. Blame people, and in particular the governments of the world. In fact money remains by far the greatest enhancement to human productivity along with the wheel. The problem lies in its misuse in the hands of governments which as a result of debasement, misallocation, misappropriation, misrepresentation, manipulation and redistribution end up destroying empires, nations, institutions, families and individuals. In short they can inflict serious damage on civilization. Only gold and silver and human ideals and values escape this madness in the long run.

The United States is guilty on all six counts and here are the reasons:

1. The massive quantitative easing strategy of Ben Bernanke at the helm of the Federal Reserve in creating $1.3 trillion out of nowhere to buy mortgaged backed securities was nothing more than debasement through printing. Lest there be any doubt on this point, I hasten to remind everyone of the following exchange between Ben Bernanke and Ron Paul:

Ron Paul: Well, where did you get the money? You created this money. So you did monetize debt, and that went into the banking system.

Bernanke: (Says nothing, but shakes his head in the affirmative).

2. Pork barrelling and open ended wars are just a couple of the examples of the misallocation that have occurred. Take for example the actions of Senator Shelby who was reported earlier this year as having put an extraordinary "blanket hold" on at least 70 nominations that President Obama had sent to the Senate. The reason was reportedly to finally get approval for two contracts for projects in his home state worth over $40 billion dollars. In another story run by the New York Times in April 2008 the following was noted:

"There were more than 10,000 (earmarks), costing nearly $20 billion last year, according to the Congressional Research Service.... taxpayer money was requested last year for a Christian broadcasting group to build a shortwave radio station in Madagascar, a program to save hawks in Haiti, efforts to fight agriculture pests in Maryland and an "international fertilizer" center in Alabama that assists farmers overseas."

Amongst the 18,750 items in the Ready to Go wish list of mayors for funding from the Obama stimulus were included such items as $2 million dollars for neon lights in Las Vegas and a Shreveport police request for 8 new Harley-Davidson's for their cops. The only stimulus these people really needed was an electric cattle prod.

As for wars, the United States military is happy to pay an average of $400 to put a gallon of fuel into a combat vehicle or aircraft in Afghanistan. Is it any wonder that the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost close to a trillion dollars not including interest and ongoing costs of veterans for medical and other expenses?

3. Misappropriation of social security funds in return for government IOU's is no secret and has been noted by many commentators. The Federal Government has systematically taken surplus Social Security revenues to spend where it wishes and to hide the size of the annual federal deficits. In fact approximately $4.4 trillion of the total debt is money that the Federal Government has borrowed from itself, by writing IOUs for huge sums taken from the Social Security and Medicare surpluses.

4. The next area of deceit can only be characterized as misrepresentation. This has taken various forms, but two will be noted here. The first is the massive amounts of money owed to the rest of the world and in particular the Chinese and Japanese. As at February 2010, the USA owes $877 billion to China and $768 billion to Japan by way of U.S. Treasury Securities. These amounts were lent on the basis that they could be serviced and repaid upon maturity. Neither is possible as the USA is currently running a budget deficit to the point where even interest is being capitalized. So what chance is there of repaying the capital if you cannot even pay the interest which at present is at record low rates? The U.S. has clearly misrepresented its economic and financial capacity. Moreover, this misrepresentation has enabled the USA to misappropriate a disproportionate share of the world's resources and savings over the last 60 odd years.

The second misrepresentation arises from the fact that the U.S. taxpayer is told only about the Federal Debt that is subject to the $14.3 trillion ceiling. But let us see what Fisher the President of the Dallas Federal Reserve said earlier this year:

"According to our calculations at the Dallas Fed, that unfunded debt of Social Security and Medicare combined has now reached $104 trillion - trillion with a "T" - in discounted present value. And while much attention in recent years has been devoted to Social Security, the lion's share of the total entitlement shortfall (nearly $90 trillion) actually comes from Medicare."

5. Then comes manipulation. In this instance I refer to the manipulation of real money which is gold and silver. I do not propose to discuss this at any length as readers would be aware of the ongoing efforts of so many commentators such as Ted Butler and the countless contributors to gold and silver sites who constantly expose the incredible litany of efforts both over time and by type to suppress their price. It would suffice to remind readers of two things. Firstly, the incredible resistance of the Federal Reserve to have the gold holdings of the US audited. Secondly, they must recall the words of Alan Greenspan who once said, "Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise." So how much has been leased?

6. Finally comes redistribution. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates at artificially low rates much to the detriment of decent savers so that banks can continue to invest at handsome rates not only the hard earned savings of taxpayers but also the zero rate money they are given by government to lodge either with the Fed at interest or in government bonds at interest. In the process there is a massive income redistribution from individuals to banks whilst even small business is being wiped out to make way for profit and growth of corporate juggernauts' on the Dow and other indices.

As a result of the above abuses the citizens of the USA are under the illusion that the Federal Government can continue to run deficits, continue to borrow from overseas as well as meet all of its future obligations to its people. Also as a result of these abuses, the people are mostly unaware or only partly informed about the destruction to the value of their dollar holdings as a store of value. In the end neither government nor they will be able to provide for themselves at some point in the not too distant future.

The USA of course is not alone in displaying such behaviour. The Chinese Government has wisely avoided providing Social Security and Medicare benefits to its citizens who in turn save close to 20% of their earnings. Despite this, its people will be sadly disappointed by a future that will place very little value on their PAPER savings. Their savings have been invested in propping up a banking system that lends for white elephant projects, marginal businesses and non-performing loans.

As for the Europeans, the fun and games are only just beginning as they follow in the footsteps of both the Fed and the Bank of England as they too now indulge in quantitative easing. The EU reminds one of the observation that a camel is a horse designed by committee.

Finally, the Japanese people are playing a strange game of recycling their yen by lending it to the government so that they can in turn spend it in the economy on behalf of the taxpayer to stop the place from coming to a grinding halt. Blind loyalty to government will lead to blindness but then again they are the people who have special ATM's where one can insert their currency and have it heated to 392 degrees which supposedly kills 90 percent of certain staphylococcus bacteria before disbursing them to customers looking almost "wrinkle" free.

The bottom line arrives when old age and illness make their debut in an increasingly aging nation. At that point you can no longer hide the effects of debasement, misallocation, misappropriation, misrepresentation, manipulation and redistribution. It will then be too late because the perpetrators will be out of office having taken their spoils and the clever ones will have prepared by buying gold and silver with fast depreciating paper.

Between June 25^th and June 29^th, 2010, The International Society for the Reform of Criminal Law will be holding its 23^rd conference in Lisbon, Portugal. The Conference heading is, Economic Crime, Crimes Against Economies and Economic Influences on Crime.

This conference will be looking at many serious issues revolving around bribery, embezzlement, extortion, influence peddling and abuse of discretion, corruption, proceeds of crime, money laundering, financing of terrorism, economic fraud, identity theft, as well as fraud, theft and extortion of banks. Finally, it will also extend to such issues as environmental crime, human trafficking, piracy, drugs and so on.

In my view however, the learned participants need to broaden the scope of their agenda items. Rather than portraying only governments and their institutions as the primary victims, they also need to examine whether and to what degree the citizens of nations have also become the victims of governments and THEIR institutions.

Who knows, we may perhaps one day witness the establishment of an International Court of Economic Justice that can try economic crimes by governments against their own people. Until then stick to history's favourites - gold and silver.

Peter Souleles

Sydney Australia

P.S. My thanks to the unknown artist of Uncle Scam.

beforeitsnews.com

Dow Theorist Richard Russell: Sell Everything Liquid, You Won't Recognize America By The End Of The Year Joe Weisenthal

Richard Russell, the famous writer of the Dow Theory Letters, has a chilling line in today's note:

Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know - who told him?" Tell them the stock market told him.

WHOA!

That's pretty intense!

Update:

By popular demand, here's more on what he sees in the market. The gist is that the markets recent gyrations are telling him that the economy is in trouble:

And I ask myself, "Am I seeing things? The April 26 high for the Dow was 11205.03. The Dow is selling as write at 10557 down 648 points from its April high. If business is even better than expected, then why is the Dow down over 600 points? And why, if there were 674 new highs on the NYSE on April 26, were there only 20 new highs on Friday, May 14? And if my PTI was 6133 on April 26, why is it down 17 points since its April high?

The fact is that I've been seeing deterioration in the stock market ever since early-April, and this in the face of improving business news

The D-J Industrial Average is composed of 30 internationally known top-quality blue-chip stocks. These are 30 of "America's biggest companies." If Barron's is so bullish on the future of America's biggest companies, then why isn't the Dow advancing to new highs?

Clearly something is wrong. But what could it be? Much as I love Barron's, I trust the stock market more. If I read the stock market correctly, it's telling me that there is a surprise ahead. And that surprise will be a reversal to the downside for the economy, plus a collection of other troubles ahead.

About Dow Theory - First, we saw the recent April highs in the Averages. Then we saw a plunge in both Averages to their May 7 lows - Industrials to 10380.43, Transports to 4298.12, next a short rally. If ahead, the two Averages turn down and violate their May 7 lows, that would be the clincher. Such action would signal the certain resumption of the primary bear market.

Just as for years I asked, cajoled, insisted, threatened, demanded, that my subscribers buy gold, I am now insisting, demanding, begging my subscribers to get OUT of stocks (including C and BYD, but not including golds) and get into cash or gold (bullion if possible). If the two Averages violate their May 7 lows, I see a major crash as the outcome. Pul - leeze, get out of stocks now, and I don't give a damn whether you have paper losses or paper profits.

www.businessinsider.com