A bail-out will be just the start of Europe’s problems

By MoneyWeek Editor John Stepek Feb 11, 2010

John Stepek

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Greek minister of finance George Papaconstantinou © LOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images

Greece's finance minister George Papaconstantinou

Markets have cheered up a bit. Investors seem to have decided that Greece isn't such a problem after all. Not now that good old Germany's going to bail everybody out.

Of course, we don't know that yet. The EU summit is today. But at least they're taking it seriously, seems to be the view.

The reality is that the best thing the EU could do for both the euro and for Greece is to tell the country to sort out its own problems. But that's not very likely now. The mere act of introducing the potential for a bail-out has changed things. Now Greece's continued solvency is probably dependent on a bail-out of some sort. If the answer today is "no", Greek bonds will tank.

But even if the answer is "yes", the eurozone's problems aren't solved. In fact, in the long run, they'll only get worse...

Could Britain be dragged in to bail out Greece?

The fascinating thing about the Greek situation is that it puts the politicians involved in such a difficult position. Usually the outcome of any dilemma involving politicians is easy to predict. Find the path of least resistance and most short-term gain – that's the outcome to bet on.

But there is no easy path here. Each individual country's politicians have different goals. The Germans would rather not bail anyone out, because their taxpayers realise they're the ones who'll be carrying the can. But other indebted countries such as Portugal might rather like the idea of Greece creating a generalised bail-out template, as it could take some pressure off them.

And we're not even beginning to discuss the notion that countries outside the eurozone might be involved. For example, there's no guarantee that Britain won't be dragged into this bail-out. It seems insane, given our own levels of debt, but according to The Telegraph, Gordon Brown's been unable to rule out the risk that we'll end up shelling out for this. And when you realise that Britain provides 20% of the EU budget, you start to see why.

But on balance, faced with the prospect of a "Lehman Brothers with sovereign debt"-type situation blazing across Europe, the politicians are likely to cobble something together. Trouble is, even if a bail-out is arranged, this won't be the end of it.

Why a bail-out won't be the end of Europe's problems

As Laurence Copeland of Cardiff University Business School puts it on Reuters, you might be able to bail out Greece. But "the difficulty is that Italy, the euro zone's third-largest economic power, has a debt-to-GDP ratio similar to Greece's." And Belgium has similar problems. "So there could be a queue forming at the EU's fiscal soup kitchen." Indeed, Riccardo Marzi has already noted in the Events Trader newsletter that he reckons Italy is the real weak link in the eurozone.


And the ones doling out the goodies at that soup kitchen surely won't be too happy about it, says Copeland. "As voters in surplus countries realise they face years of paying taxes to support their less responsible euro brethren, I expect them to react in either or both of two ways: with new political movements which may well turn ugly, and with increasing demands on their politicians for more spending. After all, if they can't beat 'em, they may as well join 'em... The medium-term outcome will be a flood of euros as member governments' debts are monetised, with obvious consequences for the currency."

You can read his whole piece here. But it's clear that whatever the outcome of today's talks, things are going to stay messy for Europe. We'll have more on the outcome as news comes through, although the chances of a clear solution being reached today may be slim.

This is not just a European crisis - stick with gold

What about the rest of the world? Well, as Niall Ferguson points out in the Financial Times, this isn't just a European crisis. "What we in the western world are about to learn is that there is no such thing as a Keynesian free lunch... Explosions of public debt incur bills that fall due much sooner than we expect."

Debts look unsustainable everywhere from the UK to the US. Yet politicians in each of these countries seem to be taking the view that spending can continue now, with austerity waiting until "after the crisis is dealt with". The trouble is, as Japan shows, you can spend an awful lot of public money and still end up stuck in a 20-year recession.

In short, this is a very good reason to be sticking with gold. As my colleague Dominic Frisby pointed out yesterday, gold is currently rising and falling with global stock markets. But as investors gradually realise that no major currency is going to avoid being printed into oblivion, the idea of buying a form of money that can't be easily manipulated by governments will become more and more appealing.

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Things looked grim this time last year, but 2009 ended up being great for most assets. So what of 2010? Here, six investment experts tell us what they like the look of now.

Why silver price will boom to $50/oz

Mark O'Byrne

Silver remains very undervalued on a historical basis and is undervalued even against gold. While gold has begun to receive some interest from a small minority of retail investors, silver remains the preserve of relatively few contrarian investors and the media and financial press rarely, if ever, covers silver. And yet silver is quite likely in the intermediate stage of a bull market that will rival or surpass that of the 1970s. Silver is currently worth less than $17.00 per ounce. It rose to a recent nominal high $20.88/oz in March 2008. After an 18 month period of correction and consolidation, silver looks set to challenge that high in the coming months. We continue to be bullish on gold and particularly silver and believe that silver will likely surpass its non inflation adjusted high of $48.70 per ounce and its inflation adjusted high of some $130 per ounce in the coming years. Why Silver is in a Bull Market and How High Could it Go?

Precious metals has been the best performing asset classes in recent years with gold and silver outperforming equities, property and most asset classes over a 3, 5 and 10 year period. This outperformance looks set to continue in the coming months due to the very bullish fundamentals. The primary reason for our bullish outlook on silver is due to the continuing and increasing global macroeconomic, currency and geopolitical risks; silver's historic role as money and a store of value; the declining and very small supply of silver; significant industrial demand and perhaps most importantly significant and increasing investment demand. Gold, oil and nearly every major commodity, stock indices and property market surpassed their record highs in recent years. Favourable supply and demand factors, continuing global macroeconomic and geopolitical risk and concerns regarding the emergence of inflation and stagflation as the massive global monetary and fiscal reflation affects the value of fiat currencies all point to higher silver prices in the long term. In the 1970s silver rose from under $1.50/oz in 1970 to nearly $50/oz in 1980. Thus, silver rose by more than 25 times or by more than 2,400%. Were silver to replicate its performance in the 1970s, it would have to rise by more than 25 times again. The average price of silver in 2001 was $4.37/oz and 25 fold increase would result in silver rising to over $110/oz. While this price target may seem outlandish to some, it is worth remembering that silver's record high in 1980 adjusted for inflation (according to US government inflation figures) was some $130/oz. Admittedly, the final phase of the silver blow off was a speculative bubble as the billionaire Hunt brothers attempted to corner the silver market. Unlike in 1979, today there are hundreds of billionaires, some multi billionaires, thousands of millionaires, hedge funds and many sovereign wealth funds. Small allocations by any of these will see sharp moves up in the price. Indeed, the silver market is so small that it could very easily be cornered again (as appears to be happened in the tin market in recent weeks). Is Silver About Returns or a Hedge Against Inflation & Systemic Risk? Silver is a hedge against macroeconomic, systemic and inflationary risk with the attractive added potential for significant capital gains. Real asset allocation and prudent diversification would be an important reason to have an allocation to silver. Silver is highly correlated to the safe haven of gold and is in effect a leveraged sister of the precious yellow metal. Thus, informed investors use gold more for wealth preservation purposes and silver in order to make a return. Silver: Declining Supply

In 1900 there were 12 billion ounces of silver in the world. By 1990, the internationally respected commodities research firm CPM Group say that figure had been reduced to around 2.2 billion ounces of silver. Today, that figure has fallen to less than 1 billion ounces in above ground refined silver. It is estimated that more than 90% of all the silver that has ever been mined has been consumed by the global photography, technology, medical, defence and electronics industries. On current supply/demand trends, the amount of above ground refined silver is projected to shrink to even lower levels in the coming years. Industrial demand has been outstripping mining supply for most of the last 20 years, driving above ground supply to historically low levels. Few in the investment world are aware of this important fact. Silver production has been flat in recent years while demand has been increasing. This hasn't resulted in significantly higher prices yet because the world has been able to fill the gap from inventories and official government stockpiles. However, today the U.S. government's stockpile is all but gone, and sales from other official sources, such as China, Russia and India, are declining, too. The decline in refined silver stocks, from around 2.2 billion ounces in 1990 to around 300 million ounces today means that silver stocks are near an all time low. Very importantly, silver is very unusual as its supply is inelastic. This means that silver production will not ramp up significantly if the silver price goes up. Supply didn't increase significantly in the 1970s when silver rose more than 35 fold in price - from $1.40/oz in 1971 to a high of nearly $50/oz in 1980. Importantly, silver is a byproduct metal and some 80% of mined silver is a byproduct of base metals. Higher prices for silver will not cause copper, nickel, zinc, lead or other base metal miners to increase their production. In the event of a global stagflationary or deflationary slowdown, demand for base metals would likely fall thus further decreasing the supply of mined silver. There are only a handful of pure silver mines remaining - many with depleting reserves. This inflexible supply means that we cannot expect significant mine supply to depress the price after silver rises in price. It is extremely rare to find a good, service, commodity or investment that is price inelastic in both supply and demand. This is another powerfully bullish aspect unique to silver.Industrial applications for silver have always been significant, but they have increased significantly in recent years. Silver is used in film, mirrors, batteries, medical devices, electrical appliances such as fridges, toasters, washing machines and uses have expanded to include cell phones, flat-screen televisions and many other modern high tech devices. Increasing industrial demand for silver is forecast due to economic growth in China, India, Vietnam, Russia, Brazil and other emerging economies in South America, the Middle East and Asia. Growing middle classes are now demanding the quality of life and standard of living enjoyed by many in the West and thus the demand for silver will likely increase. Silver is known as the 'healthy metal' and has many and increasing medical applications. In a world that is showing increasing concern about the spread of diseases and pandemics such as swine flu, silver is being increasingly tapped for its biocidal properties. Research is ongoing on the use of silver and its compounds for therapeutic uses and on its potential use as a disinfectant in hospitals and other medical facilities. Increasingly, silver's antimicrobial and antibacterial qualities are seeing it being used in all sorts of medical applications and this looks set to become a very significant source of demand in the coming years. Silver has many unique properties which make it ideal and indeed essential in global industry - especially in the global photography, technology, medical, defence and electronic industries. Yet, silver is a finite resource and the supply of silver is increasing only very incrementally. It is important to note that silver, unlike gold, is heavily used in industry and because of gold's much higher value, it gets recycled and all the gold mined in the world ever is still with us but a huge amount of silver has been used in photography, mirrors and other industrial uses in the last 200 years. The low price of silver makes recovery and recycling uneconomic. Unlike gold, silver is like oil - as it is consumed in these many industrial applications it is gone forever. Silver: Increasing Investment Demand

Investment demand for silver has risen in recent years as investors concerned about the value and safety of property, equities and deposits allocated funds diversify to the finite commodities and currencies of silver and gold. More recently, there have been increasing concerns about the value of paper currencies themselves (voiced by many including Alan Greenspan, John Paulson and George Soros) which is leading to further diversification into hard assets and precious metals. There has been a marked increase in investment demand for silver in recent years. Some of the reasons why this trend is likely to continue are - the introduction of ETFs that track the price of silver, a new global liquidity bubble, the significant growth in the global money supply, the proliferation of millionaires, ultra high net worth individuals and billionaires, the proliferation of hedge funds and the exponential growth in derivatives. The Bank for International Settlements has estimated that the total value of derivatives contracts was $592 trillion at the end of 2008 (up exponentially from $260 trillion in June 2006). Thus, dwarfing the GDP of the entire world which was estimated at some $61 trillion at the end of 2008. There is still a debate as to whether derivatives are a good or a bad thing. Alan Greenspan recently warned they could lead to "cascading cross defaults." Warren Buffett is similarly concerned and has warned that they could trigger "serious systemic problems." Buffet said that "the derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. " For this reason Buffett presciently called derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction" in 2003. Investors in silver bullion coins and bars are hedging themselves against further deflation and falls in property and equity markets. They are further protecting themselves against rising inflation, possible currency devaluations and still very prevalent geopolitical and macroeconomic risks such those posed by the humongous global derivatives market. Silver is unique in terms of being both a monetary and an industrial metal. Silver is priced at less than $17/oz today. The average nominal price of silver in 1979 and 1980 was $21.80/oz and $16.39/oz respectively. In today's dollars and adjusted for inflation that would equate to an inflation adjusted average price of some $60/oz and $44/oz in 1979 and 1980. It is for this reason that we believe silver will be valued at well over $50/oz in the coming years and silver remains the investment opportunity of a lifetime.

www.goldcore.com

Why Casinos Deserve Our Trust More Than Banks

JS Kim

Today, our financial system is so broken that casinos have much more integrity in their business dealings than do our banks.

Casinos Actually Have More Cash on Hand

The largest casinos in Vegas and Macau have much more cash on hand on a daily basis than most branches of the largest banks in the world. Whereas banks typically only have a minute percentage of their clients' cash on hand and are really a digital business, casinos are a cash business. This is precisely why large casinos in Vegas or Macau possess security systems unrivaled by any commercial bank in the world. Nearly every single person that wins at a casino on any given day can take their chips to the cashier's window and cash out their winnings. However, if a bank's entire client list came to a bank on any given day and demanded their deposits to be returned, the bank would likely run out of cash after returning 5% or less of their clients' money.

Most of the cash that people believe is sitting in a bank ready for withdrawal at their disposal at anytime are just digital bytes that exist on a bank computer somewhere in the world. Most of the money in this world does not exist in cash form and exists merely in a digital form, including the billions of "money" that is "wired" into bank accounts every day from real estate transactions. Most people have never even heard of CHIPS (the Clearinghouse Interbank Payments System) though CHIPS should be commonly known to every man and woman given its role in our fraudulent monetary system. CHIPS clears more than $1 trillion a day, executing more than a quarter of a million interbank wires and payments. Do you really think that this is real cash that moves around the monetary system daily?

This is why Alan Greenspan said more than forty years ago that the monetary system was a system that created "more claims outstanding than real asset." The only difference between now and forty years ago is the fact that today there are FAR more claims outstanding than real assets. The claims we all have in our bank accounts are represented mostly by digital bytes and very little cash. As far as claims to real cash inside the vaults of banks, multiple clients of every bank have the same claim to the every dollar, yen, euro or pound sterling in that bank's cash vault. When we state that Central Banks print money out of thin air, even this statement is somewhat misleading. The majority of time, Central Banks use the fraudulent system they have set up to merely transfer digital bytes that represent money into the global monetary system. The fact that there are "more claims outstanding than real assets", as has been the case for at least a century now, is the reason why every bank in the world would be bankrupt within hours if all of their clients demanded that their money be returned on the same day.

However, let's compare how a bank operates to how a casino operates. If you win $150,000 at craps in Las Vegas and another gambler wins $80,000 at black jack and you both show up at the cashier's window simultaneously, the cashier will not place $100,000 on the counter and say, "that's all I have, so the two of you, settle this score on your own." But if two separate clients arrived at their local bank branch on the same day unannounced and respectively asked for $1500,000 and $80,000 of their own money that they originally deposited, I guarantee you that many banks would have a serious problem producing that money on the spot (not because most bank branches wouldn't have $230,000 in cash on hand, but because they may have more cash obligations and claims already to meet that day that a $230,000 draw down might seriously jeopardize). If banks actually used a sound monetary system and had gold and silver backing their money, then perhaps their security system would be as elaborate as a casino's because they would actually have something real to protect. Instead, money as it exists today in our fraudulent system is not only digital, but it is a digital bunch of IOUs! Given the aforementioned hypothetical scenario, the bank teller would likely tell the person to return in a couple of days to gather his cash. In other words, "I owe you so come back when we can produce your cash because we don't have it right now."

Casinos are More Transparent in their Client Business Dealings

Casinos are also far more transparent than banks in the manner in which they operate. Since casinos are essentially a cash business and banks are not, if you look at a casino's financial statements, the picture of cash flow through their business is simple and upfront. One knows how much cash is flowing in and out of the business every day and it is easy to tell if the casino is profitable or hemorrhaging. However, look at a bank's financial statements today and you better have a forensic accountant by your side if you want to know the truth.

Take a look at the financial statements of any large global banking institution today and you would have no idea what is fiction and what is fantasy without doing a lot of digging. Entire commercial real estate portfolios, among other derivate products such as CDOs and MBSs, are held on bank's balance sheets at fantasy valuations because they are not marked to market. Many large banking institutions would be bankrupt by the end of the month if they had to liquidate their commercial real estate portfolios. They are only financially "healthy" because many assets on their balance sheets are not valued honestly. Of course, I'm not discounting the fact that gangsters founded Las Vegas, but for the unaware, so was our modern day banking system.

If we look at the history of bankers like Hank Paulson and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debacle, we have a blueprint for how dishonest bankers and their regulators operate.

On July 22, 2008, I released a special bulletin to my Platinum subscribers in which I discussed the likely fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac at that time. In this bulletin, I stated:

"My belief is that in order to bailout Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (which at this point is almost guaranteed to happen as both institutions are bankrupt as of today), sticking the American public with their losses will not be enough to bail them out. I believe that the U.S. Federal Reserve is going to have to print more money out of "thin air" just to bail these two institutions out. In doing so, they will erode the value of all fiat currency all over the world, whether the Euro, the Swiss Franc, the Japanese Yen, the Brazilian Real or any other currency. The bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae is almost certain to devalue all currency in the world (paper currency)."

I further stated in that same bulletin:

"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hold $1.7 trillion of assets that are backed by a mere $70 billion of capital. Furthermore, they guarantee another $3.1 trillion of mortgages, so in essence they have $70 billion that back almost $5 trillion. That is not a misprint. These two companies have $70 billion of assets backing $5 trillion [of assets and guarantees]."

Based upon my assessment of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's true health, not the disingenuous lies told to us by the likes of Hank Paulson and others, I told my subscribers that the likely final bailout cost of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would be "more than $2 trillion" in the form of tax theft from taxpayers and theft through currency devaluation. Furthermore, I stated that my price target for Fannie Mae, then trading at $19, was $4 (an estimate that, by the way, turned out to be far too generous).

In contrast, this how the financial gangsters assessed the situation. Former Goldman Sachs CEO and then US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson stated in July 2008:

"Their regulator [Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's] has made clear that they are adequately capitalized."

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) followed up with their own lies in September 2008, publicly declaring that the final cost estimate of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bailout to taxpayers would be $25 billion. Remember, after looking at the numbers myself without the benefit of the CBO's rose-tainted glasses, I estimated the final bailout cost to taxpayers to eventually exceed $2 trillion.

This past Christmas, under the cover of a holiday, the Obama administration quietly removed the collective $400 billion cap of bailout money to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and raised their bailout plan to an "unlimited" amount. Welcome $2 trillion+ bailout! So in a matter of a little more than 1 year and four months, the taxpayer bailout for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac grew from no more than $25 billion to $400 billion to an "unlimited" amount. At the same time, it was reported that, as a reward for their fine job, the CEOs of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could each earn up to $6 million in compensation annually in 2009 and 2010.

The history of lies that has surrounded the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is very similar to the web of lies that banking CEOs are weaving today in regard to the disclosure of the financial health of their institutions. Many of the world's largest banks are in the same proverbial creek without a paddle and are flat out lying to the public about the dire circumstances of their financial health just as Hank Paulson and the CBO lied to us about the financial health of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2008 and their successors continued to lie to us in 2009.

When it comes to transparency about their financial health, the world's largest banks cannot hold a candle to the world's largest casinos. In fact, the life-support health status of many of the world's top banks is the very reason that 24 of the world's top central bankers have congregated in Sydney, Australia to hold very secretive talks. In fact, though Ben Bernanke is almost certainly attending this meeting, this meeting has been so secret, thus far, that journalists have not even been able to confirm Mr. Bernanke's presence.

Consider that on March 24, 2008, an article on MarketWatch originating out of San Francisco advocated in its headlines "With Stocks Down, It's a Prime time to Increase Retirement-Plan Contributions". The article quoted Christine Benz, the director of personal finance at Morningstar Inc, as stating:

"It's a practice that almost all the great investors have used. They've taken advantage of short-term market panics. It's a sensible strategy for smaller investors to emulate."

Sri Reddy, head of retirement strategies at ING, stated:

"If you can afford to contribute more, I would tell you to increase it in any market. Participate as much as the plan will allow."

In stark contrast, I wrote an article on my blog almost exactly one-month later, as markets were rising, titled, "Will Markets Crash Now or Later?" Eighteen business days after I wrote this article, the US market started crashing and didn't let up until the S&P 500 had shed about 50% of its valuation. Yesterday, economist Joseph Stiglitz stated that in regard to the sovereign debt of the UK and the US, "Yes, I do think they deserve to keep their triple A rating" because "all we do is print money to pay it back." If this is the case, then interest payments of the sovereign debt of the US and the UK will become worthless and the real question should be, "Why would anyone want worthless interest payments?" In fact, why even maintain a rating system, if the rating system is meaningless and only used to deceive people? Over the years, I've written extensively about the fraud of the financial industry in the following articles:

The Coming Blowback of Banking Fraud The Massive Disconnect – Why Stock Markets are All About Confidence and Gullibility Today Can Rising Stock Markets Serve as Confirmation of a Crashing Economy? Why Following the Leaders Will Generate More Portfolio Losses

Casinos Offer a Win-Lose Matrix. Banks Only Offer a Lose-Lose Matrix

When it comes to customer education, casinos again win hands down against banks in their transparency. Google the phrase "odds of casino games" and this search will return 2,410,000 pages, many of which reveal the odds of every major casino game from black jack to craps to roulette. Casinos don't hide the fact that the odds are with the house in every single game from their customers but banks routinely do. Of the major casino games, only the odds of winnings from slot machines remain obscure. Still, it is common knowledge that casinos earn their highest profit margins from slot machines of any game their clients play. For this reason, over the past decade, every casino has significantly expanded the percentage of floor space that they devote to slot machines. In fact, though far from an honorable policy, casinos are even transparent enough to let you know of their unspoken rule that limits your winnings. Again it is common knowledge that if you win too much and too often, casinos have back rooms and blackball lists to solve this "problem".

However, when it comes to the games banks play, these games are executed in much more secrecy than the games casinos play. Banks take their clients' deposits, invent shady derivative products solely for their enrichment, and then leverage their clients' deposits 20, 30, or even 40 times or more in an attempt to earn massive profits for themselves. However, they never disclose these activities to their clients when their clients make massive deposits with them, and unlike in a casino, they never provide their clients with a chance of winning alongside with them. If the banking executives win in their gambles, they keep all their money. Lose, and they call in favors to their bribed politicians to ensure that they will get you, the taxpayer, to assume the entire burden of their losses. If you think this scenario has changed due to the financial crisis that reared its ugly head in 2008, you are wrong. The same shenanigans still take place today and many bankers continue to gamble with their clients' deposits in an effort to pay themselves with no concern for the financial health of their clients' monies. Of course, not all bankers act in this fashion, as many small community banks abstain from the same high-leverage, high-risk games of their larger banking brethren.

The mentality of financial executives to transform their financial institutions into giant hedge funds in search of the huge payoff is what caused AIG to fail. Today and for quite some time, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup all operate as giant hedge funds as well. However, as a member of the ruling oligarchy of countries, they operate with a certain immunity not granted to casinos. The largest banks in the world operate today with the mentality of "if we gamble with your money and win, only we win. And if we gamble with your money and we lose, only you lose." And this has been their modus operandi since as far back as the Great Depression. In a casino, if you gamble with your money and win, you, not the casino, keep the winnings. Furthermore, in a casino, you, and not some executive you've never met before, have the liberty to decide how you will gamble your money.

Casinos operate more like a republic than a bank because in a casino, every one has the freedom to make significant sums of money or to walk away and never risk serious financial losses. In other words, every opinion counts in a casino. If you take a trip with five friends to Macau and all five of your friends gamble, you can still opt to not to participate and not to risk any of your capital. This is not an option with all large commercial banks. From the minute you deposit your money in a large commercial bank, bank executives are going to gamble with your money in an attempt to earn huge profits and bonuses and you literally have no say in any of the gambles bank executives take with your money. Bankers have become the oligarchs and dictators of the world economy. In past decades, the financial industry served as a lead indicator of stock market behavior. If the financial sector rose, then this usually portended a rise in broad stock market indexes, and vice versa. Today, the financial sector IS the stock market. In early 2007, Citigroup, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac comprised just 1% to 3% of the daily NYSE composite volume. In August of 2009, for weeks on end, Citigroup, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and AIG (and sometimes Bank of America) comprised nearly 40% of the daily NYSE composite volume.

Give me a choice today to be ruled under the modus operandi of a casino or a bank, and I would chose the MO of a casino 1000 times out of 1000. I'm not saying that casino owners are saints when compared to owners of banks. Far from that. But I am saying that we live in scary financial times when we can trust a casino to be aboveboard and honest to a much greater degree than a bank. At least with a casino, I would have a chance of winning. And if I'm losing, at least I can make the decision to walk away. With a bank, I have neither of these two options. With a casino, if I win too consistently in a very grandiose manner, then at least they are upfront about banning me from ever entering their casino again or the beating I would receive if I didn't stop winning. With large banks, even if you profit from their illicit activities because you own their bank shares, they will continue to let you in the front door and urge you to buy more even when they know that the shares are ready to crash. In the end, I will always have much more respect for an enemy that confronts me face to face while I'm awake than for one that waits until I'm asleep so he can stab me in the back. The former at least has a modicum of integrity while the latter will always remain a coward until the day he dies.

As John Maynard Keynes stated:

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

All Keynesian solutions to economic crises always debauch the currency. Just look at the solutions being executed by the Bank of China, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve today. This is why bankers and their shills always praise Keynesian economics to high heaven while secretly meeting, as they are this week in Sydney, to assuredly plan to debauch currencies even more. And this is why I will always trust black jack dealers more than bankers. That's why it's so ironic that most large commercial banks, as part of their "moral code", do not allow private bankers to do business with casinos. It appears today, that the bankers got that one entirely wrong.

JS Kim is the Managing Director of SmartKnowledgeU. In 2009, 2008, & 2007, JS used his knowledge of banking and market fraud to outperform the S&P 500 by 39.87%, 41.71%, and 27.99% in his Crisis Investment Opportunities newsletter.

www.theundergroundinvestor.com

Secession: A Solution to the Washington Debt Threat

Ron Holland

Frédéric Bastiat must have been looking toward the future of the United States today when he said, "When plunder has become a way of life for a group of people living together in society, they create for themselves in the course of time a legal system that authorizes it, and a moral code that glorifies it."

I fear the federal government will plunder much of our private wealth, retirement plans and personal savings through hyperinflation, financial controls and confiscatory tax rates all in the name of protecting the public from a future debt crisis unless the states can secede from the Union and the crushing Washington debt load.

The first actual secession following several attempts by the New England states took place in the South and it ended with the defeat of the Confederate States of America. Now secession is again in the news and this time it may be the only solution to surviving the coming Washington national debt crisis.

We need to forget the causes of the earlier War Between the States, regional differences, slavery, tariffs and other related issues. The new secession effort will be state based but a national movement all across the United States ranging from Vermont to Georgia, Texas to Alaska etc. Economic survival and prosperity rather than regional issues will be motivating factor.

The first secession was a product of anti-southern tariff taxes resulting in the Southern states paying the majority of the revenue to fund the distant federal government. A mistaken defense of the dying institution of slavery by slaveholding elites in the South also contributed to the failed secession effort. Third, the advancement of corporate manufacturing profits and railroad expansionism by the Northeastern establishment elites were a major contributor. Finally the promotion of a conflict by the European Rothschild banking interests funding both the Northern abolitionists and the Southern secessionists guaranteed a violent breakup of what should have been a peaceful parting of the states.

Still the right of democratic state-by-state secession did not die at the point of a bayonet at Appomattox Court House in 1865. The belief in peaceful devolution of government powers and services to regions and local jurisdictions to allow citizens to control the power of politicians and government is a positive advancement for the 21st century. In addition, the right of devolution of states, geographic regions and groups around the world promotes competition and freedom.

I believe legal state secession from the Washington Empire just might become the only way for American citizens to escape the disastrous consequences from the coming global run to liquidate holdings of Washington treasury obligations and the dollar. Breaking free of the false chains that threaten our economic future from the likely Washington debt/dollar collapse might be our last chance to safeguard our financial security and liberty from the hyperinflation and crushing new tax increases to be forced on this and future generations from the bailouts and national debt.

Imagine no Washington income tax, no interference in the internal affairs of individual states, no involvement in perpetual wars around the world without a declaration of war, no Washington tax-feeding bureaucrats telling individual citizens, state legislatures or state agencies what to do.

Consider the benefits of sovereign states voluntarily participating in a decentralized republic or confederation, maybe like America's first central government created by our patriot founding fathers, the Articles of Confederation. A decentralized nation where marriage, religious views, history, symbols, culture, abortion, gay rights etc. are determined on a state basis, Where citizens can eat, drink, smoke or do whatever with regulations and conduct governed by the norms of a state or locality rather than a distant federal government.

Can you envision a healthy economy, with minimal government debts combined with a rising standard of living and job growth guaranteed by low taxes, minimal regulations and currency competition? All of this without the Federal Reserve and Wall Street creating excessive bubbles followed by contraction and collapse and then demanding bailouts.

Imagine for a moment a people and sovereign states with future generations free from the illegitimate Washington national debt which threatens to destroy the prosperity, savings, housing values and jobs for our children and grandchildren. Review the US National Debt Clock which tells the entire story and our future. Today the official US National Debt breaks down to $40,079 per individual. Look at the clock link to see the increase per second.

Finally, when you consider the total unfunded liabilities of Washington (see the link above), the liability per American citizen is $177,515. Remember, none of the citizens of the individual states or America in general have had the opportunity to vote on the bailout or approve these debts most of which have gone to international corporations, Wall Street and world banking cartels. We, our children and future generations should not have to fund or pay off an illegitimate debt created just to bail out a few global corporations and wealthy special interests.

The Washington Empire is now run for the benefit of New York financial and economic interests who own and control most of Congress. Due to the recent bailouts and added debt which the majority of Americans opposed, the United States is now sadly on the path toward economic, debt and currency destruction.

Why should my state, South Carolina or other states join the federal government in future poverty, loss of freedoms and lagging economic prosperity with a dismal future determined by their foreign creditors? I say, it is time to free the states and citizens from the dark economic future which Washington and Wall Street have created. Just maybe we can finally be free at last from Washington's national debt.

As Dr. Martin Luther King, from his I have a Dream speech said, "Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last." To quote another Southerner, Jefferson Davis was right when he stated, "I love the Union and the Constitution, but I would rather leave the Union with the Constitution than remain in the Union without it."

I think it is time for Americans left and right to reconsider where our nation and the federal government have ended up. Few would question that the all-powerful Washington government living on borrowed debt and fake prosperity is a political model which has failed miserably.

Today the constitutional protections have become just another dead document through the actions of Bush and Obama. A recent, WSJ/NBC poll showed that only 3% of Americans believe the government is doing a good job. Given the margin of error in the poll, the real % could have been zero.

Let's revisit the political wisdom of the original republic founded through the blood and sacrifice of our patriot founding fathers. Back to something like the original republic of sovereign state republics, the Articles of Confederation.

Today in 2010, join me in voting both for the dream of Dr. King and the vision of Jefferson Davis. It is time to replace the failed Washington leviathan with a new limited central government based on the original vision of sovereign states where we become again, "these United States" instead of "the United States." I'm voting in 2010 and 2012 in support of the Tenth Amendment and for the right of nullification.

Finally, if necessary, I'll support temporary secession efforts from the empire until we restore the original republic of our founding fathers. We must be free of an illegitimate national debt, an unconstitutional Federal Reserve and protected by currency competition and the choice of a currency based on the gold standard.

February 11, 2010

Ron Holland [send him mail], a retirement consultant, works in Zurich and is a co-editor of the Swiss Mountain Vision Newsletter. He is the author of the special report, "Get Ready To Escape the Obama Retirement Trap" and you can email him for the complete report.

www.bficapital.com/mountainvision

The Goldsmiths - Part III (.......leggi tutto)

R. D. Bradshaw

(Editor's Note: The Goldsmiths series is reposted from Mr. Bradshaw's eye-opening examination, penned in 2008. - JSB)

Being extremely naïve and ignorant about how the modern goldsmiths work and control nations and money, this writer has suffered greatly at their hands over the years, as has been true with others.

As a young man in the 1960s, it began to dawn on me that the US government was spending money all over the world irresponsibly. It was easy to put two and two together and realize that hyperinflation would ultimately set in and the dollar would be destroyed. It was not a question of whether; but rather only one of when. The when may be very close - here in 2008.

Seeing that the US currency would not last and that other nations too had problems with their fiat currencies, gold and silver were the most obvious solutions. This writer tried that approach several times over the years; but always unsuccessfully as my investments in gold and silver ultimately went bad.

But after losing much of my money on gold and silver options in 1993, a break came to change some of my ignorance when the old "Spotlight" paper ran an article on the work of the US Plunge Protection Team (PPT) to prop up the stock markets and simultaneously destroy gold. This revelation made me essentially lay off of gold until in 2008 when once more the gold bug bit me.

Yet while the work of the PPT was known, a full revelation on the involvement of the international banking goldsmiths was not fully appreciated by me until they had successfully brought gold and silver down to the heights of stupidity, as happened in Jul-Aug 2008. At last, it all began to crystallize into one scenario of reality. Hence, this and the preceding two articles on the Goldsmiths have been produced. Perhaps there are other persons who can benefit from my experience.

The thing that escaped my understanding was the fact that the modern banking goldsmiths control at least the US and most of the other global financial markets. While they don't have total and complete control all of the time, they do have sufficient control that they can periodically cause the markets to oscillate up and down so that with advance knowledge of the coming moves they can make gobs and gobs of money from us ignorant suckers.

In the US , investors are often bombarded with the ideas of the fundamentals and the technicals. And while the fundamentals are important for the long trend line and while the technicals may sometimes be important in the short term, they are not proving to be the driving forces in the markets here in 2008. Now, the overlying trend lines, at least the short and intermediate term trend lines, are being directed and controlled by market manipulators/interventionalists.

True, the US and many other governments in the world are busy using tax-payer funds to manipulate the markets, as discussed in Part I of this series (on the premise that their manipulations somehow benefit their governments). But the involvement is substantially more than just government entities. Manifestly, the big international banks are also involved. Of course, since they execute market orders from both the government and central bank players, they automatically become insiders with advance knowledge of what is to happen at a given time. But it's more than just that reality.

The US has sat back and allowed its big banks to come into the markets and participate - not only as hedgers and investors, but also as speculators. And they do so. Speculating in the markets and writing options on stocks and commodities have turned into big business for big banks, allegedly like Citibank and JP Morgan-Chase, in addition to the so-called investment banks.

Though some persons might wish to dream that the Fed operates independently of the big banks, it should not take too many brains to understand that this is not reality. The big banks are the primary owners of the Fed and the Fed leaders work for and serve the big banks.

Former Vice President Dan Quayle revealed what is already well known among informed persons. He said that "Greenspan (former Fed Chairman) represents the big banks and internationalists..." (Sep 13, 1999, "US News & World Report," p. 22). As a minimum, this means that Greenspan represented the modern goldsmiths.

The Proofs

Again, it must be said that even if the Fed did try to operate independently of its banking bosses, the word would still get out on what the Fed is doing. The reason is because the NY Fed carries out the instructions of the FOMC and it does so through already established brokers. JP Morgan-Chase and Goldman-Sachs seem to be the action agencies doing much of the buying and selling whenever the PPT goes to work on the markets. Citibank is also a big player in the markets. It's hard to imagine that Citibank is not in the Fed's loop.

Besides the reality of ownership and bank/broker participation in executing Fed orders, there are other crystal clear proofs that certain big banks join in and participate in the rip off of investors by the PPT. First, whenever the PPT strikes, there is an undeniable gigantic push that must be far greater than just the Fed. These moves are often huge. Now while the Fed does have large sums of money to play with in the markets, some of the moves are probably beyond even this reality.

Next, one can check the intraday trades and plainly see the work of the interventionalists. Only the big banks have the money and freedom from market oversight to simultaneously push the trend lines on any given day in conjunction with the Fed and/or other central banks. It appears that the Fed often strikes in NY at about 8 to 11 AM on weekly business days. But they can vary this pattern. When the Fed/PPT strikes, the intraday charts usually show extremely large moves down in one or two whacks.

Despite the clear evidence of a Fed/PPT strike, one following the charts can see that they are often accompanied by other large strikes (but smaller than the Fed whacks) which are obviously made on the basis of advance knowledge of what the Fed/PPT will do for a given item. Therefore, some of the banks or brokers with advance knowledge jump the gun and strike just before the Fed/PPT.

Too, when the Fed/PPT ends its push down, some players will advance knowledge enter the market to buy up the collapsed items and start the so-called correction. They do this while the uninformed investors are still on the sidelines waiting for proof of the bounce before jumping back into the market.

Another interesting little reality is that there are often false and fake moves up or down which occur just before or just after the Fed/PPT makes its primary thrust (like the example of the week of Aug 11, 2008). Of course, these fake moves are made so that the initiating party is able to buy or sell a given item with the full realization of the timing and limits of the Fed/PPT actions.

Actually, many of the big traders are so rich, powerful and controlling that they can easily cause intraday moves up or down to take out a stop loss almost whenever they choose - and particularly so in the case of tight stops. Big traders do this often whenever they want to pick up an item with advance knowledge of where the pending moves will go in the markets.

In addition to the big hits on normal 8 to 5 workdays by the Fed/PPT, it is easy to see other lesser hits, especially in the evenings or nights. Interestingly, when the 8 AM workday commences in Tel Aviv (around 1AM NY time), one can find hits on applicable items that will later receive Fed/PPT attention or boosts up following the conclusion of the Fed/PPT work. London is about four hours earlier than NY. So it is possible to see related moves being made at 8-9AM London time.

This situation then brings up the matter of a predetermined schedule which is supplied the primary players in advance (this will be discussed below). Alert observers, watching the recommendations of various market analysts, can easily see that some of these persons have been supplied advance information on pending Fed/PPT/big bank moves.

By following the moves in the market for given items, it is readily apparent that a select group of informed people in Tel Aviv, London, New York and Chicago are privy to information in advance on pending Fed/PPT moves. Of course, in the currencies, it is also often true that other central banks participate in the Fed/PPT strikes. Inevitably, these various central banks tip-off relatives, friends and associates on pending moves.

While there are regulations governing some financial transactions/markets, the big banks have been exempted from this oversight. That's why the Commodity and Futures people never find any illegal actions in the markets. Activities of the big banks are never illegal or wrong.

But perhaps the greatest proof of all of a conspiracy/collusion involving the Fed, the US government, various other governments and central banks and the largest of the fat cat banks and investment houses to defraud and steal from the people surfaces whenever one looks carefully at the work of the various exchanges, the media, the government agencies in their official pronouncements, and the several big brokerage houses which participate.

Whenever the Fed/PPT people are crashing a given item, the related exchange almost always works in a pronounced fashion to support the crash of the item. Usually they do this when they daily establish exchange made settlement or set prices for items and especially items and contracts which did not trade that day. For examples of their work, one can check how crude oil was handled in the July-Aug 2008 take-down.

Inevitably, most US exchanges set these prices as low as possible when the item is being crashed by the fat cats. This means that some traders/investors (especially small ones like me) can easily be caught in a margin call and have to liquidate some holdings. These exchange-directed prices are often ridiculously low since no trades take place at those levels (unless there are a few token trades made by the manipulators to drive prices down).

Except for the manipulators and persons being forced out in margin calls, there usually are few or no sellers of an item at the crashed prices. Yet, the exchanges use crashed prices without hesitation for far-out contracts whether trades are happening there or not.

Conversely, when the fall ends and the fat cats begin acquiring longs for future profits, the exchanges reverse their habits and make settlement and set prices higher. In such a case, they do this whether trades are taking place there or not.

The role of the US government and its Plunge Protection Team was addressed in Part I of this series. Obviously, the government can always use the excuse that it participates in the financial markets to benefit the US economy. But its participation is far greater than just the PPT. Many government agencies are prepped to alter reports and/or create simply false and misleading data which will support the work of the PPT/fat cats running the US markets.

If and when US government offices and agencies make public reports and pronouncements on particularly financial matters (actually on almost anything and everything), there is a good chance that the reported data is absolute lies or as a minimum represents distorted and misleading representations. Even the US Dept of Agriculture gets in on the act by lying to the public about food production (to make everything look good when it is not good). Only an idiot believes the crap that comes out of Washington.

The official inflation data is a sample of government alterations of truth. Clearly if US inflation is artificially kept down, it helps the Fed pump the dollar up with claims of little or no inflation. Certainly low inflation rates benefit the government when cost of living changes are made to social security and other retirement plans. Social security checks would be at least 70% higher today if the government had not been altering inflation data over the past 15 years.

The participation of a select group of large brokerage firms is discussed elsewhere in this series on the Goldsmiths. Of course, they willingly participate simply to be in the position of knowing what is happening to benefit their own pocket-books. Anyone reading their public pronouncements and recommendations can readily see at once that they are either brilliant beyond belief or that they have advance knowledge of coming market moves.

The controlled US media is even grosser in its efforts to bend over backward to help the collapses engineered by the Fed/PPT and fat cats. Of course, most of us know that the fat cats who own the big banks, the Fed and the US government (yes, many of the leading US political leaders have been bought and paid for by the fat cats) also own ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN and the leading newspapers in the US.

Bloomberg offers daily financial news reports. Bloomberg's reporting seems to always be in harmony with and beneficial for the major market moves being directed by the power brokers. Bloomberg is notorious for making bad news about the US economy seem like good news when gold and commodities are being hit while the US dollar and stocks are being boosted. This is called spinning the news. And if bad news can't be spun into being good news, the media can always just not report it.

Advance Scheduling, Revisited

As noted above, the fat cats directing these major market moves do so in accordance with a predetermined schedule which is supplied to the major players (this typically includes not only the Fed and US Treasury, but also certain major brokerage firms in Tel Aviv, London, NY and Chicago. But these guys have pledged secrecy on the matter and they typically don't share this data with outsiders.

Actually, this writer is in contact with a person who receives this dating information in advance, evidently from his connections with a large brokerage firm which plays on the manipulation team. The information is dated within one or two business days either way. For sure, I have personally seen advance schedules of these turn dates for the last three months. I know they exist. And I have found them to be highly accurate in predicting the major up and down turn dates for moves in the markets.

While the items to be hit and the items to be boosted are not always defined, the schedules do usually address the US dollar items versus the anti-dollar items. The dollar items are the US dollar and often US stocks (particularly the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes). The anti-dollar seems to always include gold and silver but not necessarily the other anti-dollar items. Yet, oil and most other commodities and foreign currencies were all in the anti-dollar crowd for the Jul-Aug 2008 motions.

One could suppose that oil would be classic anti-dollar and would accordingly be with gold for all hits down. But this option has not held true for much of the last year or so. Possibly the reason why oil has not always been anti-dollar is because JP Morgan-Chase and Citibank allegedly have been big players in the crude oil market. The fat cat banks are simply not going to allow a hit on their positions unless they have advance information and are able to make preparations to cover their investments.

Not only was the gold and oil crash in July-Aug 2008 foretold but the preceding and subsequent run-ups were also scheduled in advance. This means that it was the insiders who ran gold up in July 2008 to pull in the suckers - only to come along later and crash it in conjunction with operations of the Fed/PP, big banks and selected elite brokers to take out the suckers. If a person knows in advance that gold will be run up in a certain two week period and then crashed to a new modern low, could that person make gobs and gobs of money? Has a cat got a tail?

These schedules seem to be usually made about 60 days in advance. They cover the dates (which often coincide with meetings of the FOMC and G7/G8 nations) and the general ups, downs, highs and lows for the dollar versus anti-dollar items. While price objectives or projections are sometimes presented, they are not always met. Apparently, the ultimate prices may depend on the markets and how the public/investors react.

Several months ago, when the US dollar was hanging at about 71 and people familiar with the fundamentals were predicting a fall to 68, some informed brokers and analysts were actually building a case for a dollar at 75-77. At the time, I thought a dollar index at 75 was madness. But that just shows how uninformed, naïve and ignorant I was. Now that I have been exposed to the inner-working of this team of conspirators, I can see that they were working with a schedule back then showing that a 75-77 dollar would become a soon reality.

Let me mention that the present objective on the dollar is 80 for the index in Sept 2008. This schedule says the dollar will remain strong for the rest of this year into 2009. Obviously, a strong dollar will benefit the plutocrats when the Nov 2008 election rolls around. This will pacify the voting public and make it continue to vote for the status quo.

The collapse of particularly oil (but gold too somewhat) was made in Jul-Aug 2008 in order to allow the fat cats to acquire huge new positions in oil at bargain prices. Why? Well, the US and its colleagues are getting ready to impose a blockade on Iran. Either Iran gives in and surrenders or she will be attacked with a passion and fury. We can be sure that oil will go into the sky. The fat cats manipulating the markets will make a barrel of money.

And why would the fat cat bankers/goldsmiths work so hard to drive the US dollar to ridiculous highs when it is near the same caliber as the worthless currencies in Latin America and Africa?

Well, since WWII, the US dollar has evolved as the most important currency in the world for the big bankers and their allies to use in their quest for profits and world domination. The dollar is now owned outright by the fat cat bankers. The dollar is just too valuable to the big boys for them to set back and allow it to quickly collapse before they have had a chance to impose an alternative world reserve currency to take its place.

The power of huge sums of money can be very influential in the markets usually - but not always. The US stocks have been under heavy selling pressures so far in 2008. The fat cats and their lackeys at the Fed and US Treasury have tried hard to pump up and reflate the stock markets (especially the Dow and the S&P 500). But the effort has not yet succeeded as planned or hoped for by the fat cats.

The Bottom Line

Several conclusions can be easily surmised based on the material in this paper and the preceding two related studies on the Goldsmiths.

First, this operation involves a closely knit team of conspirators. Bob Carpenter in the International Forecaster calls them a cartel. Some would liken them to the Mafia and its operations. Perhaps they can be called a clan, team or network. But regardless of how they are defined, they do exist. Clearly, the players do work together to rip off and plunder money and whatever else from most of us. So far, they have been extremely successful at this effort for most of the last 4,000 years.

There is no reason for us to now cry and moan over the work of these conspirators. After all, our ancestors willingly turned over the US monetary, economic and financial systems to them long ago. We are now reaping the produce sowed by our ancestors. Yes, a tree is known by the fruit it produces.

While some could gullibly claim that Bush Junior is running things, the truth is that there are plutocratic rulers who run things and not the elected US politicians who are merely lackeys bought and paid for by the plutocrats.

The bottom line here is that perhaps the House of Rothschild, as represented by N. M Rothschild and Company of the City in London, is the big boss of the whole thing (this is the only option which is logical and makes sense). The Fed, US Treasury, big banks (like possibly JP Morgan Chase, Citibank, Goldman-Sachs, etc) and certain stock and commodity brokerage firms play on the team and benefit from its operations. But it seems to be only the Rothschilds who have the power and influence to direct major events in world affairs.

This writer has come to believe that there will be no big spikes up in gold until such time that the Rothschilds either own all or most of it or they lose control over the markets. Of course, if the fat cats and PPT should lose control over the markets they manipulate, it goes without saying that there will be huge explosions up in gold and other commodities as well. Can they lose control? Yes, it can happen one day and perhaps soon.

For More Reading/Information

For more reading on this issue, the reader may wish to check these sources:

The bestseller: "None Dare Call It Conspiracy," by Gary Allen and Larry Abraham, first published in 1971, still available on eBay, Amazon and other book outlets.

"Tragedy and Hope," by Carroll Quigley. At the 1992 Democrat Convention, Bill Clinton's acceptance speech cited Quigley as Clinton's mentor.

An Internet presentation on the Plutocrats, at Volume XXII of "Ezekiel and YHWH's Judgment for the Good People," at www.AgeEnd.com on the net.

The author is not involved in the securities or financial market business and has no financial interest in presenting the information herein. In fact, it could be very dangerous to even broach this theme. The plutocrats running the US and parts of the rest of the world are known to murder or take action against people who attempt to interfere in their operations (like in the case of the assassination of John F. Kennedy).

Anyway, the preceding information on this subject is presented for general information only and not for purposes of investment advise or recommendations. What the reader does on investments is his own personal decision and responsibility.

Finally, the writer of this series is a retired CPA, living in the Idaho Mountains, and still optimistic for the future of gold and silver. He is also a veteran of the Korean and Vietnamese Wars.

news.goldseek.com

Becoming a Third World Country

John Michael Greer

In the course of writing last week's Archdruid Report post, I belatedly realized that there's a very simple way to talk about the scope of the brutal economic contraction now sweeping through American society - a way, furthermore, that might just be able to sidestep both the obsessive belief in progress and the equally obsessive fascination with apocalyptic fantasy that, between them, make up much of what passes for thinking about the future these days. It's to point out that, over the next decade or so, the United States is going to finish the process of becoming a Third World country. I say "finish the process," because we are already most of the way there. What distinguishes the Third World from the privileged industrial minority of the world's nations?

Third World nations import most of their manufactured goods from abroad, while exporting mostly raw materials; that's been true of the United States for decades now.

Third World economies have inadequate domestic capital, and are dependent on loans from abroad; that's been true of the United States for just about as long.

Third World societies are economically burdened by severe problems with public health; the United States ranks dead last for life expectancy among industrial nations, and its rates of infant mortality are on a par with those in Indonesia, so that's covered.

Third World nation are very often governed by kleptocracies - well, let's not even go there, shall we?

There are, in fact, precisely two things left that differentiate the United States from any other large, overpopulated, impoverished Third World nation. The first is that the average standard of living here, measured either in money or in terms of energy and resource consumption, stands well above Third World levels - in fact, it's well above the levels of most industrial nations. The second is that the United States has the world's most expensive and technologically complex military. Those two factors are closely related, and understanding their relationship is crucial in making sense of the end of the "American century" and the decline of the United States to Third World status. The US has the world's most expensive military because, just now, it has the world's largest empire. Now of course it's not polite to talk about that in precisely those terms, but let's be frank - the US does not keep its troops garrisoned in more than a hundred countries around the world for the sake of their health, you know. That empire functions, as empires always do, as a way of tilting the economic relationships between nations in a way that pumps wealth out of the rest of the world and into the coffers of the imperial nation. It may never have occurred to you to wonder why it is that the 5% of the world's population who live in the US get to use around a third of the world's production of natural resources and industrial products - certainly it never seems to occur to most Americans to wonder about that - but the economics of empire are the reason. A century ago, in 1910, it was Britain that had the global empire, the worldwide garrisons, and the torrents of wealth flowing from around the world to boost the British standard of living at the expense of everyone else's. A century from now, in 2110, if the technology to maintain any kind of worldwide empire still exists - and it can be done with wooden sailing ships and crude cannon, remember; Spain managed that feat very effectively in its day - somebody else will be in that position. It won't be America, because empire is the methamphetamine of nations; in the short term, the effects feel great, but in the long term they're very often lethal. Britain managed to walk away from its empire without total catastrophe because the United States was ready, willing, and able to take over, and give Britain a place in the inner circle of US allies into the bargain; most other nations have paid for their imperial overshoot with a century or two of economic collapse, political chaos, and social disintegration. That's the corner into which the United States is backing itself right now. The flood of lightly disguised tribute from overseas, while it made Americans fantastically wealthy by the standards of the rest of the world, also gutted America's domestic economy - the same economic imbalances that funnel wealth here also make it nearly impossible to produce goods or provide services at home at a cost that can compete with overseas producers - and created a culture of entitlement that includes all classes from the bottom of the social pyramid right up to the top. As always happens, in turn, the benefits of empire are failing to keep pace with its rapidly rising costs, and in addition, rising demands for imperial largesse from all parts of society are drawing down an increasingly straitened supply of wealth. Meanwhile other nations with imperial ambitions are circling like sharks; the wisest among them know that time is on their side, and that any additional burden that can be loaded onto a drowning empire will hasten the day when it goes under for the third time and they can close for the kill. This view of the world situation is not one that you'll find in the cultural mainstream, or for that matter any of its self-proclaimed alternatives. The contrast with a century ago is instructive. A great many people in late imperial Britain knew perfectly well that the empire on which the sun famously never set - critics suggested that this was because God Himself wouldn't trust an Englishman in the dark - had had its day and was itself setting; the lines of Rudyard Kipling's poem "Recessional" -

Far-called, our navies melt away; On dune and headland sinks the fire. Lo! All our pomp of yesterday Is one with Nineveh and Tyre.

- simply put in powerful imagery what many were thinking at that time. You won't find the same sort of historical sense nowadays, though, and I suspect the role of the myth of progress as the secular religion of the modern world has a lot to do with it. In 1910, the concept of historical decline was on a great many minds; these days you'll hardly hear it mentioned, because the belief in history as perpetual progress has become all the more deeply entrenched as the foundations that made the progress of recent centuries possible have rotted away. The resulting insistence on seeing all social changes through onward-and-upward colored spectacles has imposed huge distortions on our perceptions of recent events. One good example is the rise and fall of the so-called "global economy" in recent decades. Its proponents portrayed it as the triumphant wave of a Utopian future that would enable everybody to live like middle-class Americans; its critics portrayed it as the equally triumphant metastasis of a monolithic corporate power out to enslave the world. Very few people saw it as the desperate gambit of a faltering imperial society that could no longer even afford to run its own economy, and was forced to outsource even its most basic economic functions to other countries. Nonetheless, this is what it has turned out to be, and it had the predictable result that several other nations used the influx of capital and technology to build their own industrial sectors, bide their time, and then enter the market themselves and outcompete the very companies and countries that gave them a foot in the door. More broadly, it seems to have escaped the attention of a great many observers that the day of the multinational corporations is drawing to an end. The struggle over Russia's energy resources was the decisive battle there, and when Putin crushed the Western-funded oligarchs and retook control of his country's energy supply, that battle was settled with a typically Russian sense of drama. The elegance with which China has turned international trade law against its putative beneficiaries is in its own way just as typical; a flurry of corporations owned by the Chinese government have spread operations throughout the world, using the mechanisms of global trade to lay the foundations of a future Chinese global empire, while the Chinese government efficiently stonewalled any further trade negotiations that would have put Chinese economic interests at home in jeopardy. More recently, China has begun buying sizable stakes in the multinational corporations that so many well-meaning people in the West once thought would reduce the world to vassalage; the day when ExxonMobil is a wholly-owned subsidiary of CNOOC may be closer than it looks. The same biases that make such global changes invisible have impacts at least as sweeping here at home. Faith in progress, coupled with the tribute economy's culture of entitlement I mentioned earlier, have made it nearly impossible for anybody in American public life to talk about the hard fact that America can no longer afford most of the social habits it adopted during its age of empire. It's almost impossible to think of an aspect of daily life in America today that will not change drastically as a result. We will have to give up the notion, for example, that most Americans ought to go to college and get a "meaningful and fulfilling" job of the sort that can be done sitting at a desk. We will have to abandon the idea that it makes any sense to spend a quarter of a million dollars giving an elderly person with an incurable illness six more months of life. We will have to relearn the old distinction between the deserving poor - those who are willing to work and simply need the opportunity, or who have fallen into destitution through circumstances outside their control - and those who are simply trying to game the system. The great majority of us will get to find out what it's like to make things instead of buying them, even when that means a sharp reduction in quality; to skip meals, or make do with very little, because the money to pay for anything more simply isn't there; to treat serious illnesses at home because care from a doctor costs too much; I could go on for paragraphs, but I trust you get the idea. All these changes, it needs to be said, would be inevitable at this point even if the industrial world depended on renewable resources and had a stable, sustainable relationship with the planetary biosphere that supports all our lives. The United States has played its recent hands in the game of empire very badly indeed, and responded to each loss by doubling down and raising the stakes even higher. If, as a growing number of perceptive commentators have suggested, the US government has been reduced to borrowing money from itself in order to pay its bills - the theme of last week's Archdruid Report post - the end of that road is in sight. It's hard to see this as anything but a desperation move on the part of a political and economic establishment that sees no other options for short-term survival and thinks it has nothing left to lose. It's the exact equivalent of paying household bills by running up debt on credit cards; it can buy a little time, but at the cost of making bankruptcy a certainty once that time runs out. The global context of the crisis, though, also needs to be kept in mind. The industrial world does not depend on renewable resources, and its relationship with the biosphere is leading it straight down the well-worn path of overshoot and collapse; the endgame of American empire, while it would be taking place anyway, has the additional factor of the limits to growth in play. In an alternate world where energy and resource flows could be counted on to remain stable for the foreseeable future, it's quite possible that one of the rising powers might offer America the same devil's bargain we offered Britain in 1942, and prop up the husk of our empire just long enough to take it over for themselves. As it is, it cannot have escaped the attention of any other nation on the planet that something like a quarter of the world's dwindling resource production could be made available for other countries, if only the United States were to lose the ability to purchase energy and other resources from outside its own borders. It's not hard to think of nations that would be in a position to profit mightily from such a readjustment, and nothing so unseemly as a global war would necessarily be required to make it happen; to name only one possibility, it's by no means unthinkable that the United States, having manufactured "color revolutions" to order in countries around the world, might turn out to be vulnerable to the same sort of well-organized mob action here at home. Exactly how things will play out in the months and years to come is anybody's guess. One of the consequences of America's descent into Third World status, though, is that a great many of us may have scant leisure to contemplate global and national issues amid the struggle to keep food on the table and a roof over our heads. In the long run, this shift in focus may have certain advantages; I have argued in previous posts that those nations that undergo the deindustrial transition soonest, and are thus forced to learn how to get by on the very modest energy and resource flows available in the absence of fossil fuels, may find that this gives them a head start in making changes that everyone else will have to make in due time. Still, making the most of those advantages will require a very different approach to economics, among other things, than most of us have pursued (or imagined pursuing) so far. Interestingly, this brings us back to the point where this blog's exploration of deindustrial economics started some months ago: the thought of the maverick economist E.F. Schumacher. Among his other achievements, Schumacher developed a theory of economic development for the Third World that cut straight across the assumptions of his own time and ours alike, and proposed a route toward relative prosperity that took the limits to growth and the failures of empire into account. That route was not taken in his time; it may be the only way left open in ours. We'll discuss it in detail in next week's post.

The Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America (AODA), John Michael Greer has been active in the alternative spirituality movement for more than 25 years, and is the author of more than twenty books, including "The Druidry Handbook" (Weiser, 2006) and "The Long Descent: A User's Guide to the End of the Industrial Age" (New Society, 2008). He lives in Cumberland, Maryland.

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