Più di 22000 sono stati i morti ammazzati in Messico a causa del narcotraffico. Un esercito di 45000 uomini impiegati nella lotta al commercio di sostanze stupefacenti. Una rete che coinvolge più di 230 città americane. Più di 20 milioni di tossicodipendenti negli Stati Uniti. Costi in USA pari a 215 miliardi di dollari. Martin Woods, che tra il 2006 e il Continua a leggere…
Dan Norcini
Monday must now be the new "Friday" when it comes to gold. Those of you who have been watching the gold price action over the last decade know what I am referring to. For those of you who are a bit newer to the gold game, Fridays, particularly after a payrolls report, have typically been the day on which gold was taken down by the bullion bank crowd to mess with the weekly chart and the technical picture.
Last Monday saw gold put in a horrendous bearish downside reversal day which the bulls managed to negate the rest of the week by a sheer gritty determination not to run. Today (another Monday) we have an exact repeat of the same bullion bank tactic that they employed 7 days ago; to wit, a takedown after price took out last Friday's session high while gold mining stocks were also moving sharply higher. The result - an exact repeat of last Monday technically - another bearish outside reversal day on the daily chart. This coming on the heels of a brand new record high in Dollar terms at the London PM Fix ($1,261).
It is quite evident that the perma-bears at the Comex are determined to cap gold at $1,260. No one hits bids with the intensity that I saw this morning unless they are trying to take price lower. The reason is obvious - a closing push through $1262 and gold goes immediately to $1,280 - $1,285 garnering all the more headlines and casting more doubt upon the integrity of world's current monetary system, which is under extreme duress. What the bullion banks are attempting to do is to form a double top on the daily price chart - it really is that simple.
Some are pointing to the stronger dollar as the culprit behind the weakness in gold, but that is denying the obvious and grasping for an explanation. Bonds are shooting sharply higher today and even the Yen is stronger as once again risk is back in focus and investors are moving to safe havens. Under such a scenario, the very notion that gold would be sold off as a "risky" asset is laughable for its stupidity.
The fact is gold was sharply higher after the conclusion of the meaningless G20 summit which was nothing but a group of yakking heads talking to hear themselves saying something. Investors rightfully interpreted that as further confirmation that nothing serious was going to be done that would restore confidence towards paper currencies. They then bid the yellow metal higher which held its gains from overnight as it moved into New York trading and even added some. We are then to believe that investors had a sudden change of heart so much so that they immediately became convinced at mid-morning that gold was no longer worthy to be held but instead US paper Treasuries were much more to be desired? Based on what news, what report? Come on already - are there actually people out there who are so damn dense that they believe this nonsense? This is what an orchestrated takedown looks like, pure and simple.
My own view is that this will meet with as much success as the previous Monday's. Not a thing has changed in regards to the world's monetary system - nothing. We always have to respect the technical price action because today's markets are dominated by techies but those same technicals worked in favor of the bulls last week based on the price action Tuesday through Friday last week. They have to repeat their performance once again.
Let's see how support levels function tomorrow and Wednesday. Chalk up today for the history books and forget about it. What is more important now is whether the bulls will hang tough and refuse to run. If they do not run, bears will be forced to cover as they did last week. As I mentioned in this past weekend's analysis of the COT report, bears will have to force price down below $1233 on a closing basis to induce long side liquidation.
William (Bill) Buckler
It’s pretty bad. All of a sudden, the recovery has almost officially become "fragile" in the US. The official version was stated in the Fed’s press release following the FOMC meeting on June 22-23. "Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance", they said. Indeed they have. A recent report from a department of the US Treasury shows just how bad they have become.
Until this month, the Treasury was predicting that US funded debt would climb to $US 19.6 TRILLION by the end of fiscal 2019. That has been "revised". On June 4, the Treasury released a report to Congress stating that the climb to $US 19.6 TRILLION would take place by 2015, four years earlier. They also predicted that this would be 102 percent of US GDP by that time. As of June 23, with fiscal 2010 nearing the end of its third quarter, the Treasury’s "debt to the penny" stood at $US 13.042 TRILLION.
The report said that the debt would reach $US 13.6 TRILLION by the end of fiscal 2010 on September 30. If it does, it will have grown by $US 1.7 TRILLION in fiscal 2010. And there was more. The Treasury projects that "publicly traded debt", the debt held by entities outside the US government itself, will almost double from its present level of $US 7.48 TRILLION to $US 14 TRILLION by 2015.
Ten years ago, the US Treasury was talking about paying off ALL government debt by 2012. Five years ago, they were talking about returning to "balanced budgets" at or about that date and all talk of "reducing" debt had vanished. Look at what they are talking about now. As we said, it’s pretty bad.
"Greece On The Pacific":
That is the new description of the US state of California, once touted as the eighth largest economy in the world. California - the headline state, the biggest state in terms of its internal economy - is facing the necessity of budget cuts which make the ones undertaken by the European Club Med nations look benign.
Like most US states, California has a fiscal year which ends on June 30. Like ALL US states, California is barred by law from running a budget deficit. The problem is that California is staring at a $19 Billion "deficit" in the year which ends at the end of June and a $US 37 Billion deficit over the year that ends in June 2011. Given a budget of about $US 125 Billion, that’s a 2010-11 shortfall of almost 30 percent.
Almost all US states are in the same predicament, only the size differs. So far, their budget deficits have been papered over by Mr. Obama’s stimulus plan of 2009, but that money has mostly already been spent. Having built their "budgets" on the real estate bubble, their revenues are diving as their costs, especially for "social services" skyrocket. Almost every report on the fiscal carnage going on in the US states has a variation on this theme: "The US government will inevitably have to come to the rescue". If you think the recent EU "sovereign debt" bailout was big (and it was), wait until you see THIS one!
"Austerity" In The US Congress!:
The US "Jobs Bill", a scaled down version of President Obama’s 2009 $US 787 Billion "stimulus package", has hit the wall. The Democrats in Congress have been trying to pass it for months. The 2010 version is seen as "essential" as it includes an extension of weekly unemployment benefits for millions of Americans who have been out of work more than six months. On top of that, the 2010-2011 fiscal year budgets prepared by most of the 50 states built the federal money included in this bill into their calculations. On June 24, the bill did not receive the 60 votes necessary to prevent a Republican filibuster. With the latest failure to pass the bill, 1.2 million Americans are going to see their "jobless benefits" end by the end of the week and the states will NOT be getting the federal money they were counting on. For a US Congress to reject such a bill is unheard of. As we said, it’s pretty bad.
William (Bill) Buckler Captain of The Privateer email: capt@the-privateer.com
