Quei politici pagati dalle banche
IL PIÙ GRANDE CATACLISMA ECONOMICO DELLA STORIA UMANA!
Why the Stock Market Is a Horrible Wealth Protection Strategy
Dan Denning
Here in the States everyone is keen to see the non-farm payrolls report. It comes out on Friday. Anecdotal evidence (what people say) suggests that the employment situation here is still pretty bad. But government statistics can say pretty much whatever you want them to say.
If you're looking for the internals of the market, try breadth. That is, if you want to judge how intrinsically strong a rally is, look at how broad it is. Is it just concentrated to a few of the big stocks (banks and basic material, for example). Or are all stocks marching up in lock stop on higher earnings and higher valuations. Is the equity premium visible?
Take a look at the chart below. It's the advance-decline index on the New York Stock Exchange from early 2007 unto today. The scale of the chart is less important than the trend. The index tracks the difference between advancing and declining issues on any given day. When there are more advancers than decliner, the index is bullish. When there are more decliners than advancers, it's bearish.
NYSE A/D Ratio Looking Toppy
If you're trying to use the A/D ratio as a predictor of what's next (and who isn't?) then what does it really tell you? The chart above shows you that market breadth started to deteriorate months ahead of the actual high in the Dow Jones (which came later that year in October.) The June-July revelations that two Bear Stearns funds were in trouble accelerated the deterioration.
The March 2009 low in the A/D ratio more or less coincided with the low in the index. There wasn't any advance warning from the index. That's likely because the March lows were reversed by the active (and perhaps direct) support of the Federal Reserve via interest rates and a program of Treasury bond buying.
Whether the Fed worked a way, via its primary dealers, to get stocks moving too (another word is 'manipulation') is an interesting but ultimately unanswerable question. The important point here is that nothing in the fundamental mechanics of the market indicated a reversal. It was an external event.
And what about now? The A/D ratio is going up, up, and away. It could be that corporate cash positions are solid, the employment market won't get worse, and that the end is in sight for the U.S. housing market. Some combination of these factors could explain the steady advance of stocks since last March. But maybe not.
Our guess is that this is simply evidence of the Fed's Great Reflation (see Marc Faber's March Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report). All the new money created by the Fed, and the new lines off credit made available to U.S. financial institutions, made its way into the stock market by force off habit. It was easy to borrow and there was only one sensible place to put it: stocks.
But is that still the best trade going now?
No.
Your best bet, as we've said for a while, is to retire now. Gradually liquidate your stock portfolio and pare it down. People are buying stocks now because it's what they've always done and what they're still told to do. But as a wealth survival strategy, the stock market is a death trap.
You should, by our reckoning, own a small portfolio of stocks leveraged to positive Black Swans (low probability but high magnitude events that drive a share price higher…like the discovery of a new ore body or the development of a new drug). These are the sort entrepreneurial ventures that will create new wealth. A portfolio of these business experiments is like a call option on the world we'll live in after governments have gone bankrupt and lost the ability to perpetuate the follies of the previous credit bubble.
But for now, the public sector campaign to bail out the plutocrats in the private sector is in full force. And in the meantime, the public sector in Europe is trying to save itself. Markets in Europe have reacted with contented indifference to the affair in Greece. Has anything important happened there?
Well, the Greek government presented a plan to cut spending by $6.8 billion. If effected, it will reduce the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 12.7% to 8.7% in the next year, which is pretty ambitious. The Greeks plan to do two things: raise revenue and cut spending.
The Greeks will raise taxes on fuel, tobacco, and sales taxes. And if the communist unions don't derail the plan, bonus payments to public sector servants will be cut by 30% and wages will be frozen for civil servants.
If Greece is having a fiscal crisis, why is anyone in the government getting a bonus payment at all?
The Greeks have $20 billion in sovereign debt maturing in April and May of this year. The negotiations between the Greeks and the rest of Europe are trundling along. But to what end? The Germans refuse to pony up for a bail out. But will the EU sacrifice Greece to save the Euro as a currency?
Nobody knows. But our main point today is that you should not think Greece has gone away. It's true that since February, the cost of insuring sovereign governments against default has fallen. According to the folks at Bespoke Investment Group, only Vietnam, Argentina, and Egypt have seen wider credit default swap spreads in the last two months.
So we have a pause in the crisis-think. Markets rally on reflationary monetary and fiscal policy. But the underlying structure of the fiscal welfare/warfare state is badly damaged. This is still an excellent time to reduce your exposure to stocks and add, on the dips, your exposure to precious metals and precious metals equities (in full knowledge that even gold stocks are going to decline on another general decline in stocks).
It's probably not just stocks you should re-think, though. Last week we mentioned that fund manager Colonial First State (owned by the Commonwealth Bank) has told investors in its Mortgage Income Fund that it could be as long as four years before they get their money back. The average age of the 17,000 investors in the fund is 74 years old.
Redemptions in the $850 million fund were frozen not long after the Federal government guaranteed bank deposits. High-yield mortgage trusts are not bank accounts. Investors and pensioners who treated them like high-yield bank accounts - because that's how they were sold - were suddenly not generating needed income on precious savings. And now the savings are locked up.
But it wasn't just the government guarantee that pummeled the mortgage and property funds. It was the underlying securities. On February 9th, Colonial announced it would wind down the Mortgage Income Fund because the bad debts on some of the underlying property loans were, "too big to manage." It has another $1 billion of pensioner savings locked up in similar funds.
Now without knowing the composition of assets in the other funds, it would be hasty to say that mortgage funds in general are lousy investments. However we're inclined to think just that. But more importantly, there's a point here about having your money locked up in large pools of capital these days.
These large pools of capital - mortgage funds, property funds, super funds, 401(k) plans in the States - are extremely attractive to people who need capital. Call it "captive capital." Banks covet it because it keeps them cashed up when facing declining asset values in commercial and residential property.
Governments covet the capital even more. It's a ready source of funding for government deficits. If you can compel banks to buy government bonds (via credit requirements), or if you can compel savers to own government bonds for "safety" and "annuity" reasons, then you can force people to fund your deficits. That means you may not have to cut spending so deeply that you lose an election because of it.
So what should you expect and what should you prepare for? Higher taxes are a given. "Nutter expected to tax sugary drinks, set trash fee," reports a Philadelphia newspaper. The Nutter in this case, quite appropriately, refers to the Mayor. He's taxing fizzy drinks and garbage to raise extra money for the city. At the city and state level, you can expect a lot more of these creative ways to finance spending - along with cuts in services.
This is part and parcel of the over-reach of the Welfare state. If the U.S. Warfare State has over-reached in Iraq and Afghanistan, it's been over-reaching domestically for years with programs paid for out of an empty pocket. The same is true in Europe, Japan, and increasingly, in Australia.
Some places are better off than others. Australia has a relatively smaller public sector debt burden. But the country overall, if you look at the net foreign debt, owes its prosperity to foreign lenders. You can expect the strain on public sector finances to only increase in the coming years.
All of that suggests, to us anyway, that you should re-think your reliance on traditional income and savings vehicles. Look for changes to be made that make it harder for you to get at your money. Or, if you can withdraw it from certain accounts and schemes, you will do so at a massive penalty. Governments need capital. And when they can't compel you to use yours to finance their spending, they are going to get at least a pound of flesh if you choose to remove your money from the system.
What should you do instead?
As we said above, a small portfolio of stocks - business projects leveraged to very high returns - is nearly the only good reason to stay in stocks. The other good reason is that as governments monetize debts and confidence in paper money fails, stocks may beat inflation a lot better than cash. The rally of the last year is evidence of that.
Next week, when we get back to Australia, we'll take on the main objection to all of this: deflation. That argument is simple. As the global debt burden becomes too heavy, it will crush asset values, leading to falling asset prices across the board, including precious metals. We have too many objections to this to list here. But stay tuned next week. Until then!
Regards, Dan Denning The Daily Reckoning Australia Whiskey & Gunpowder
Dan Denning is the author of 2005's best-selling The Bull Hunter. A specialist in small-cap stocks, Dan draws on his network of global contacts from his base in Melbourne, Australia, and is a frequent contributor to The Daily Reckoning Australia.
Goldman Sucks
Matt Taibbi Signup for the free newsletter at http://www.Lebed.biz/ This video is a visualization of Matt Taibbi's "The Great American Bubble Machine" It has been cut down slightly to fit the 10 minute time constraints. To read the original article click this link: http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/07.09/bubble.html |
Bernanke Wrongly Calls "Bizarre" Allegations Cited by Ron Paul
Charles Scaliger
On February 24, Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas), at a hearing held by the House Financial Services Committee, asked Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke whether he was aware of allegations that the Federal Reserve had been complicit in the Watergate cover-up and in the illegal funneling of billions of dollars in loans to Iraq's Saddam Hussein:
"It has been reported in the past that during the 1980s that the Fed actually facilitated a $5.5-billion loan to Saddam Hussein. And he then bought weapons from our military-industrial complex. And also that is when he invested in a nuclear reactor.... "Also there's been reports that the cash used in the Watergate scandal came through the Federal Reserve. And when investigators back in those years tried to find out, they were always stonewalled, and we couldn't get the information.... Would you grant that after 10 or 15 years, the American people deserve to know?"
Chairman Bernanke, caught off guard, replied that he found such allegations “absolutely bizarre,” adding that “I have absolutely no knowledge of anything remotely like what you just described. As far as the 10 years, after five years, we produce complete transcripts of every word said in the FOMC meetings. So you have every word in front of you.” The unexpected exchange caught the momentary attention of the political punditry. Blogs from the Wall Street Journal to NPR made incredulous note of it, while the Huffington Post called Congressman Paul's allegations “wild accusations.” The consensus among the opinion cartel, to the extent that they deigned to take notice of the episode at all, was that the February 24 sparring was just another irresponsible outburst from Congressman Paul, Capitol Hill's crazy uncle. Case closed. Undismayed, Congressman Paul the following day produced documentation for insertion into the Congressional Record to substantiate his allegations of the previous day. His source was none other than Dr. Robert D. Auerbach, a professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas and author of Deception and Abuse at the Fed (University of Texas, 2008). Professor Auerbach was also an economist with the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee during the tenures of four Fed Chairmen, from Arthur Burns through Alan Greenspan. Congressman Paul cited a letter he had received from Auerbach thanking him for bringing to light long-neglected facts about the Federal Reserve's shady past. In his letter, Professor Auerbach rehearsed evidence from his book (some of which was culled from actual minutes of meetings by Fed officials) that the Fed had misled investigators about the source of the $6,300.00 in cash found on the persons of the burglars apprehended at the Watergate break-in. Wrote Auerbach:
"The Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of Author Burns not only kept the Fed from getting entangled in the Watergate coverup, which the Fed's actions had assisted, it allowed false statements about bills the Fed knew were issued by the Philadelphia Fed Bank to stand uncorrected. Blocking information from the Senate and House Banking Committees ... and issuing false information during a perilous government crisis imposed huge costs on the public that had insufficient information to hold the Fed officials accountable for what they had withheld from the Congress. Had the deception been discovered the Fed chairmen following Burns may have been forced to rapidly implement some real transparency to restore the Fed's credibility. That would have reduced or eliminated many of the lies, deceptions, and corrupt practices that are described in my book."
Professor Auerbach went on to discuss the shady dealings of one Christopher Drogoul, the manager of the Atlanta branch of the Banca Nazionale del Lavoro (BNL), who, beginning in 1986, became the middleman for a scheme to funnel billions of dollars to Saddam Hussein to support his war against Iran. The loans, supposedly authorized by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and guaranteed by the U.S. government, were of very dubious merit, since Iraq was not deemed credit-worthy. Yet Federal Reserve auditors of the BNL seem to have completely overlooked billions of dollars of very risky loans on BNL-Atlanta's books during a cursory audit that took. While criminal complicity on the part of Fed officials was never proven, the exchange of lavish gifts between officials at the New York Fed and the main American branch of BNL in New York City suggested a level of complicity never fully acknowledged or explained by investigators and prosecutors. Thus Congressman Paul's allegations, surprising though they were, were anything but bizarre. The Congressman also asked Bernanke whether the Fed (given its alleged history of facilitating under-the-table loans of deadbeat regimes) had any plans to assist in a bailout of Greece; Bernanke denied that it did. The most deceptive claim by Fed officials has always been that the American central bank is, and must always remain, aloof from politics - hence Bernanke's opposition to a congressional audit of the Fed. But the sordid truth has always been that bankers, and most especially central bankers like Bernanke, are often motivated by political allegiances and biases. Federal Reserve chairmen like Bernanke understand as well as everyone else at the apex of the financial pyramid the importance of patronage and playing ball with politicos. They differ only in having a freer hand than most to manipulate the system to serve their own ends.
The Cross of Debt
Vox Day
Ordinary people, farmers and fishermen, taxpayers, doctors, nurses, teachers are being asked to shoulder through their taxes a burden that was created by irresponsible greedy bankers. – Iceland President Olafur Grimsson
In October 2008, polls showed that the majority of the American people, 56 percent, were opposed to the $700 billion TARP bill that funded the bank bailouts at the cost of $2,334 to each and every 300 million of them. Despite some initial resistance shown by the Republicans in the House of Representatives, the bankers succeeded in overriding the will of the American people, thanks to their elected officials who purport to represent them. So much for democracy in America.
Unlike the unfortunate Americans, the people of Iceland were given the chance to exert their will directly on a similar banking bailout in the form of a referendum. As the U.S. Congress had done before them, the politicians in the Icelandic parliament approved legislation covering the losses of a private Icelandic bank, a bill that would have cost every Icelander $16,400. But thanks to the brave resistance of their president, the Icelandic people took full advantage of their more democratic system to vote down the Icesave bailout on March 6. A full 93 percent of them voted against handing over $5.3 billion, nearly half their annual GDP, to repay the Dutch and British governments. The Icelandic people rightly questioned why they should be held responsible for reimbursing Dutch and British depositors who were compensated by their governments for their failed savings on behalf of a private bank whose largest stockholder was based in London.
President Grimsson is the first true hero of the current financial crisis, which is far from over regardless of how many economic green shoots are spotted by keen-eyed central bankers or created by government statisticians. In direct contrast to John McCain and Barack Obama, who didn't hesitate to throw over the American people on behalf of the bankers, President Grimsson personally intervened in the political process and, by forcing the referendum, gave the Icelandic people the opportunity to make a genuinely democratic decision on their financial future.
Of course, as was seen in Ireland with regard to the Lisbon Treaty, the dedication of European politicians to genuine democracy as opposed to the faux democratic trappings of so-called "representative democracy" is as limited as their American counterparts. Iceland's finance minister, Steingrimur Sigfusson, wasted no time in assuring the international bankers that the will of the Icelandic people would be overridden at the very first opportunity, announcing:
"It's of utmost importance that we don't over-interpret whatever message comes out of this. We want to be perfectly clear that a 'no' vote does not mean we are refusing to pay. We will honor our obligations. To maintain anything else is highly dangerous for the economy of this country."
It should be clear that what is much more dangerous to the economy of Iceland and every other country in the world is a political system that permits politicians such as Haarde, Sigurdardottir, Sigfusson, Brown, Bush, McCain and Obama to turn entire nations into the unwilling serfs of a small number of short-sighted and woefully incompetent bankers. There is no one road to serfdom, and given their woeful performance over the last five decades, it would appear that the banking oligarchy would make for a de facto ruling class that is even less effective than the communist apparatchiks, fascist bureaucrats, inbred aristocrats and clueless kings who preceded them.
If, as we are repeatedly assured by the media, Democrats and Republicans alike, we must have a ruling class in America that is deemed too important to fail and cannot be held accountable to either the rule of law or its own blunders, is it really too much to expect it to demonstrate at least a modicum of competence? This is not to say there is not a reasonable argument to be made against rule by the will of the people. The case against the vagaries of democracy dates back 2,421 years to Thucydides and his history of the Peloponnesian War. On the other hand, each day that passes is an argument against this fraudulent form of representative democracy that represents the interests of Wall Street, the city and their international equivalents at the literal expense of the people.
How long will Americans languish upon their cross of debt? Where is America's Grimsson?
Special offer:Get Vox's latest book, "The Return of the Great Depression" at WorldNetDaily's online store. The book is also availabe in electronic form at reduced price through Scribd.
Vox Day is a Christian libertarian opinion columnist and author of "The Return of the Great Depression." He is a member of the SFWA, Mensa and IGDA, and has been down with Madden since 1992. Visit his blog, Vox Popoli, for daily commentary and spirited discussions open to all.
California's Big, Fat High-Yield Debt
By RANDALL W. FORSYTH | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
California, Greece: see protests, hustle bonds.
AS DEMONSTRATORS PROTESTED THURSDAY AGAINST measures to pare Greece's budget deficit, the Hellenic Republic found ready buyers for a big bond offering.
Meanwhile, in California, college students demonstrated against cutbacks to the Golden State's higher-education institutions ahead of next week's offering of $2 billion general obligation, or GO, bonds. Same stuff, different place.
Greece's auction of 10-year bonds drew 14 billion euros in bids for the €5 billion offered, albeit at a yield of 6.35%, well over the 6.08% on the comparable outstanding issue. That brought the spread over the German bund to about 300 basis points, or three percentage points, above the euro-zone benchmark bond. (One euro fetches about $1.36.)
Last week's sale merely put a dent in the €20 billion the Greek government must raise in the next three months. Some German officials helpfully suggested that Greece sell off some islands. Not jewels like Santorini -- just some uninhabited islands, presumably fit for your basic plutocrat.
Instead, the Greek government announced €4.8 billion in austerity measures, which provoked strikes in hospitals and schools and shut down public transportation in Athens Friday. Still, George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, came away from a meeting in Berlin with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, with a pledge to do "everything in order to stabilize the euro" -- but no financial support from the European Union's biggest economy.
Nevertheless, global investors apparently have concluded that the yield on Greek government debt -- roughly twice that of German bunds (government bond) -- compensates for the risk. Indeed, foreign investors took 77% of the Greek offering, with the biggest demand coming from the U.K. and Germany, Reuters reports.
Back in the U.S., California may have to pay nearly as much as Greece -- upwards of 6% on a 30-year maturity. But there's a significant difference. California's GOs' interest will be exempt from federal taxes, and for investors in the state, exempt from California's stiff income levy. For affluent Californians facing a 40% combined federal and state tax rate, a 6% yield on a double-exempt bond would be equivalent to a 10% return on a taxable bond.
Ten percent would be a yield appropriate for a corporate junk bond. And in the view of many, California qualifies as a junk credit. The ratings agencies, for what it's worth, still put the state in the investment-grade range: Baa1 by Moody's Investors Service, single-A-minus by Standard & Poor's, and triple-B by Fitch Ratings.
Whatever some might say, California isn't a junk credit. It is, after all, the world's eighth-largest economy, dwarfing many other sovereign debtors, including Greece, which is small even within the European Union.
Moreover, for California to default on interest and principal payments on its GO debt is all but unthinkable. As often trumpeted, debt-service payments on California take precedence over everything other than payments for schools under the state's constitution. Even so, "California is role model for how not to manage a large state," says Howard J. Cure, director of municipal research at Evercore Wealth Management, which manages $1.6 billion for high net-worth individuals.
Jobs Report Jolts Treasuries: News of a smaller-than-expected drop in payrolls last month sent yields sharply higher for the week. The market also is braced for a heavy slate of Treasury note and bond auctions this week totaling some $74 billion.
The state's problems are traceable to its dependence on volatile high-income and capital-gains taxes, which drive wealthy taxpayers out of state; lack of rainy-day reserves; an unaffordable, generous safety net for citizens; the need for a two-thirds majority in the legislature to raise taxes; and the initiatives process that sets constitutional requirements without providing funding. As a result, Cure thinks further downgrades are likely in California GOs, even though the state's economy is showing signs of recovery.
Ken Woods, head of Asset Preservation Advisors in Atlanta, thinks the state's bonds are "money-good." While they trade about 150 basis points over the triple-A municipal yield curve, which equates to about 4.50% in 10 years and just under 6% in 30 years, he thinks there's better value in the bonds at a spread closer to 200 bps. At their widest last year, 10-year California GOs only got to about 170 basis points over the triple-A muni scale, says Evercore.
For investors looking for California credits, Cure prefers essential-service enterprises, such as water, sewer and public-power bonds, which aren't dependent on Sacramento; selected sales-tax bonds; bonds from the world-class University of California system (but avoid the California State University and school-district issues); and stronger cities and counties, although the state is likely to shift expenses to them; and community colleges.
IN THE TREASURY MARKET, prices fell and yields rose sharply Friday, following news of a smaller-than-expected 36,000 drop in payrolls in February and ahead of this week's slate of $74 billion in note and bond auctions. For the week, the two-year note's yield rose nine basis points, to 0.90%; the benchmark 10-year-note yield was up eight basis points, to 3.69%; and the 30-year bond yield increased nine basis points, to 4.64%.
L’isola dei Cassintegrati, il reality show per un diritto
Un gruppo di operai della Ex Enichem mette in scena uno show sul modello televisivo per sensibilizzare il pubblico sulla sua condizione
“Il 24 Febbraio 2010 un gruppo di operai Vinyls (ex Enichem, Porto Torres), in cassintegrazione da 4 mesi, è sbarcato sull’isola dell’Asinara, prendendo possesso delle sale dell’antico carcere. L’isola dei Cassintegrati è un reality “reale”, purtroppo, dove nessuno è famoso, ma tutti sono senza lavoro” con queste parole su facebook si accompagnava la nascita di una creativa ed appassionante battaglia per il diritto al lavoro, su due campi, quello reale e quello virtuale, che inizia a vincere sull’indifferenza della gente.
SOLUZIONI - Il tutto ha il carattere di una riuscita operazione virale di marketing del diritto al lavoro ma non è niente di tutto questo. E’ la dimostrazione che “Insieme si può”, che le idee, il coraggio e la solidarietà possono smuovere qualcosa. Per farsi notare hanno occupato un’isola desolata, perché chi perde il lavoro o va in cassa integrazione non fa più notizia. Erano scesi in piazza a manifestare, anche a Roma, erano saliti sul tetto non di una fabbrica, ma di una torre aragonese, ma noi non c’eravamo accorti di loro. Poi è arrivato il tempo della Ventura e dei suoi naufraghi, come ogni anno. E c’è che stavolta io non so nemmeno chi siano i famosi che vanno in qualche parte tempestosa e piena di zanzare del mondo a digiunare, ché magari la beauty farm la rai non la passa più, mentre ricordo il nome di qualcuno di loro, Andrea Scanu, ad esempio. E mi chiedo: è lui che scrive il diario su blogspot? Perché, se è così, cavolo, dovrei chiedere a lui di fare questo pezzo, perché sta vivendo quello di cui io dovrei parlare, perché la sua prosa sa di poesia, perché riesce anche a suscitare il sorriso
7 marzo: Ore 08.00 : E’ Domenica. Ma i giorni qui sono tutti uguali. La dimensione in cui viviamo è totalmente diversa. Solo chi è stato li più volte, o chi ci ha vissuto, sa di che parliamo.
Ore 09.00 : Un falco pellegrino, abbiamo imparato a riconoscerlo, volteggia nell’aria. È impressionante la leggerezza, l’armonia, e la velocità con cui si muove nell’aria.
Ore 11.30 : Noi umani più modestamente, ci informiamo dai quotidiani locali e più accessibili. Apprendiamo una notizia esilarante: in realtà non sappiamo se ridere o piangere. La nostra società è commissariata ormai da mesi dal Ministero Att. Produttive. Tale Ministero nei giorni scorsi ha istituito una Commissione di Vigilanza (ovviamente pagata), sul lavoro dei Commissari Vinyls già nominati. In pratica i Commissari sono stati commissariati!!! Dicono sia un obbligo di legge. Pensiamo accada solo in Italia. Attendiamo la nomina imminente di una Commissione che indaghi sulla Commissione che indaga sui Commissari!! E il caso di dire:”BOH…BOH…”
Ore 12.30 Gianmario si accorge del clamoroso scherzo di cui è rimasto vittima su facebook: prima di andare a letto si è dimenticato la sua bacheca aperta. Il nostro Ministro degli Esteri, noto nottambulo, se ne accorge ed in vece sua scrive: “Mi sento solo su quest’isola. Ho bisogno di un uomo nella mia cella”. Sono arrivati 18 commenti. Il più simpatico è stato: “A TIE CUSTA ISOLA T’E’ FATTENDE MALE. TORRADICCHE A DOMO TUA!”
Ore 16.00 : Alziamo lo sguardo e vediamo una decina di mufloni che si inerpicano in un ripido dirupo della collina che porta alla “Punta Scomunica”. Sono agili fieri e diffidenti, proprio come noi sardi.
L’ATTENZIONE CRESCE – Ieri sera sul tardi Andrea pubblica un link a questo post sulla bacheca del gruppo che su facebook da ieri, dopo un servizio andato in onda su rai 3, sta crescendo di momento in momento. Non sembra curarsene alcuno salvo l’amministratore del gruppo, che Repubblica ci spiega essere il figlio studente di musica in Inghilterra di uno dei cassintegrati, che lo riposta più tardi. Nella pioggia di messaggi di solidarietà può succedere. Le persone che si iscrivono al gruppo crescono di continuo, anche se-chi frequenta il social sa-è facile che non tutti possano farlo, giacché per chi segue troppe cause è necessario l’invito. Da circa ottomila a più di tredicimila utenti in meno di ventiquattro ore. Ieri su Fb era possibile vedere passare il link al gruppo di bacheca in bacheca, anche se circolava già da giorni, per la verità, e difatti in una settimana in tanti erano riusciti ad iscriversi-ma la tv è ancora la tv. Anche se l’isola dei cassintegrati aveva ispirato dei bellissimi articoli, come quello di Costantino Cossu del Manifesto che ne traccia una dimensione mitica, o quello di Silvia Sanna della Nuova Sardegna, che aveva descritto l’incontro tra gli operai della Vinyls e quelli dell’Alcoa di Portovesme che all’Asinara giovedì si sono uniti commossi in un abbraccio, non solo simbolico, tra due realtà di non rassegnazione alla crisi sarde, l’una del Nord, l’altra del Sud. “Perché chi lotta può perdere ma chi non lotta ha già perso”. Lo leggiamo su una magliettina immortalata addosso ad un pupazzetto che ha in testa un casco dell’Alcoa, in una foto pubblicata a capo di un post del 6 marzo, sempre sul blog dei cassintegrati, dove nei giorni scorsi si poteva leggere anticipata la “notizia”. Leggiamo nel diario del 2 marzo: “Ore 16.00 : E’ ufficiale, i lavoratori dell’Alcoa giovedì saranno sull’isola. Partiranno alle quattro del mattino per raggiungerci. Ma cos è questo piccolo sacrificio difronte a quello che hanno passato in questi mesi?“. E ancora, il giorno prima: “Ore 14.30 : Finalmente! Una grandiosa notizia: Gli operai dell’Alcoa si stanno organizzando per venirci a trovare. Pensiamo che finalmente sia giunta l’ora dell’unione delle lotte operaie di tutta la sardegna. Visto che ci sono i pastori e altri lavoratori dell’isola, pensiamo che sia arrivata la riscossa dell’intera classe lavoratrice. Forse è un illusione o un sogno, ma i sogni aiutano a vivere meglio e a volte si avverano, e non è una frase di Marzullo“. E la notte non avevano solo sognato. Leggiamo: “Ore 04.17 : Il silenzio della notte è interrotto da un tonfo fragoroso e sordo. Sarà un sabotaggio? No… E’ Gianmario che cercando Mariella (sua moglie) e non trovandola, è caduto dal letto (credeteci…è successo!). Ci riaddormentiamo“. Anche per loro, per le proprie donne, per i propri bimbi, stanno lottando i cassintegrati della Vinyls mentre sfidano la galera di una situazione precaria barricati in celle reali, in un’isola di 52 mq battuta dal vento, che sarebbe rimasta desolata se non avessero conservato i rapporti con il resto del mondo con una connessione al web, se non si fossero raccontati, se non si fossero prestati a farsi mito. Hanno raggiunto i cuori di tutti noi. Forse anche quelli dell’Eni.
(In questo video la loro storia)
http://www.giornalettismo.com/archives/54539/lisola-cassintegrati-reality/
Deep economy per meditare.
Il blog Conducive Chronicle consiglia a tutti la lettura di un nuovo libro, che si chiama Deep Economy-The Wealth of Communities and the Durable Future, il cui autore è Bill McKibben. Il libro dimostra, con semplici dati e numeri, come molte delle nostre convinzioni in economia siano semplicemente errate, e come il guardare i fatti da una prospettiva più ampia sia sommamente rivelatore.
Ecco alcuni interessanti esempi alla rinfusa, su cui meditare:
- Statisticamente, il denaro compra la felicità solo fino ai 10 mila dollari l'anno a testa. Al di sopra, la correlazione scompare.
- Una porzione cibo in USA, in media, ha viaggiato 2500 km e ha cambiato mano 6 volte prima di arrivare in tavola.
- L'abitazione media ha raddoppiato le dimensioni dal 1970 ad oggi.
- Solo il 22% dell'energia ricavata dal carbone viene effettivamente usata. Il resto va sprecato.
- Se i cinesi mangiassero carne come gli americani, userebbero i 2/3 del raccolto di grano mondiale.
- Se i cinesi possedessero auto come gli americani, avrebbero bisogno di più del petrolio prodotto annualmente nel mondo.
- Se i cinesi mangiassero pesce come i giapponesi, consumerebbero più del pescato attuale del mondo, quantitativo già ora insostenibile.
In particolare per questi ultimi tre punti, c'è da dubitare allora che la globalizzazione sia benefica perché "porta benessere" ai popoli in via di sviluppo...
http://petrolio.blogosfere.it/2010/03/deep-economy-per-meditare.html
Attenti, vogliono far ripartire l’inflazione…
Scritto da Marcello Foa | |
domenica 07 marzo 2010 | |
Da tempo gli economisti e i gestori più saggi pronosticano un’ondata inflazionistica come unico modo per risolvere il problema dei giganteschi debiti pubblici, a cominciare da quello americano. Finora questo scenario non si è realizzato e il costo della vita è rimasto sotto controllo. Da qualche tempo, però, leggo articoli di autorevoli economisti che invitano l’opinione pubblica a cambiare idea e in cui l’inflazione viene descritta come un bene più che un male. Il più esplicito è quello proposto dal Sole24 Ore, a firma di Moisés Naim (direttore di Foreign Policy) e di Uri Dadush, direttore del reparto Economia internazionale al Carnegie Endowment. Nel pezzo si segnala che Olivier Blanchard, chief economist del Fmi “ha appena lanciato un appello a prendere in considerazione un obiettivo d’inflazione meno ambizioso (4%). C’è voluto coraggio. Venendo da quello che un tempo era il tempio del fondamentalismo antinflazione, è come se il rabbino capo chiedesse di riconsiderare le regole kosher.
La reazione dei consiglieri della Bce alla proposta di Blanchard? «È giocare col fuoco», «estremamente dannosa», addirittura «un errore demoniaco». La crisi dell’euro e le reazioni sprezzanti a una proposta proveniente da fonte autorevole sono sicuramente segnali che è arrivato il momento di esaminare accuratamente il fondamentalismo antinflazione”. Da tempo ho imparato a decriptare certi articoli e certe firme, collocandoli nel contesto appropriato. Foreign Policy ha solidi legami sia con l’establishment politico di Washington che con gli ambienti finanziari delle grandi banche di Wall Street, il Fmi rispecchia certi noti interessi economici, Carnegie è un think-tank ben integrato a Washington. Questa sintonia di vedute fa riflettere. Non traggo conclusioni precipitose, ma è forte il sospetto che il disegno dell’inflazione “salva debito” abbia ottenuto qualche autorevole approvazione da certe lobby, che, nonostante il crash Lehman, continuano a essere dominanti e a cui Obama non si è ancora sottratto. Se l’intuizione è giusta, occhio ai vostri risparmi, l’inflazione rischia di bruciare come (e con) il debito… O sbaglio? Da:http://blog.ilgiornale.it/foa |
PANICO ALLA FEDERAL RESERVE O RITORNO ALLA NORMALITA’ ?
Cina, Zhou contro la «politicizzazione del mercato valutario»
Il governatore della banca centrale della Cina, Zhou Xiaochuan, ha protestato contro la “politicizzazione” della questione dei tassi di cambio legati allo yuan. Una presa di posizione che, di fatto, costituisce una dura risposta alle richieste provenienti dagli Stati Uniti, che nelle scorse settimane hanno fatto sapere di auspicare una politica monetaria diversa da parte di Pechino. Secondo Washington, infatti, la valuta cinese è artificiosamente scambiata ad un prezzo troppo conveniente per le esportazioni, il ceh contribuisce a deprimere le vendite dei prodotti made in Usa.
Ma secondo Zhou - riferisce l’agenzia France-Presse - ciò che conta è la stabilità del sistema, che presenta ancora numerosi «elementi di incertezza. Per questo ci opponiamo ad una politicizzazione della materia», ha spiegato ad una conferenza stampa a margine della riunione annuale del parlamento. Il governatore, poi, sottolineando come la questione risulti «complessa», ha aggiunto: «Dobbiamo continuare a lavorare per migliorare il meccanismo di formazione dei tassi di cambio, al fine di garantire stabilità alla nostra moneta, ad un livello ragionevole ed equilibrato».
Zhou ha poi sottolineato come la risposta cinese alla crisi finanziaria globale abbia «contribuito alla ripresa economica mondiale», ricordando però anche che una exit strategy per le misure di stimolo fiscale sarà inevitabile nel prossimo futuro, «anche se occorrerà prestare molta attenzione al momento giusto per attuarla, anche in funzione della tendenza del dollaro».
FINANZA/ Superata la crisi-Grecia, l'euro è salvo?
lunedì 8 marzo 2010
«Il Fondo monetario internazionale? Può essere utile, ma solo come banca. Anche l'Italia sta aumentando i suoi contributi». Le parole (sferzanti) del ministro dell'Economia, Giulio Tremonti, all'Aspen European Dialogue di Venezia, hanno chiosato a dovere la settimana-chiave del salvataggio della Grecia. Che si è conclusa in modo in parte inatteso: le istituzioni europee (dall'Ue alla Bce) non sono intervenute direttamente a sostegno di Atene, se non tenendo ferma la presa di posizione politica del consiglio straordinario dell'11 febbraio (lo ha ben ricordato sul Sole 24 Ore il neo-commissario agli affari economici e monetari Joaquin Almunia).
La Grecia ha invece potuto collocare con successo sul mercato un proprio bond da 5 miliardi, avviando il rifinanziamento del suo debito pubblico. È immaginabile che le banche tedesche (probabilmente anche alcuni istituti parapubblici come la Kfw, la “cassa depositi e prestiti di Berlino) abbiano creato un piedistallo per l'operazione, che la speculazione di mercato avrebbe reso molto più difficile e onerosa, se non impossibile.
Ma tant'è: l'Europa (anzi l'eurozona) ha potuto esplicare in pieno - forse per la prima volta - la funzione “sussidiaria” implicita nei trattati di Maastricht. Per ora le finanze pubbliche degli Stati-membri non sono state messe alla prove ma è stato il “mercato unico” a generare le risorse del salvataggio. La Grecia non è stata “umiliata” nella sua sovranità, ed è stata invece obbligata a varare un piano di austerity, sia per il bilancio statale sia per l'economia privata: con una novità non da poco su scala europea come la fine dell'intangibilità delle retribuzioni dei dipendenti pubblici.
Ma tutti i cittadini greci sono - e si devono sentire - corresponsabili della falsificazione dei bilanci operata dopo il 2000 dai loro governi. Ma anche gli altri 26 paesi dell'Unione e i 16 dell'Eurozona (molti dei quali non stanno molto meglio della Grecia) sapranno trarre una lezione concreta e utile per modellare la loro exit strategy verso la ripresa.
Se anche solo una parte del percorso delineato sarà coperto - dalla Grecia e dall'Europa - il decennale dell'euro potrà comunque essere segnato da un nuovo test positivo, forse decisivo. Mentre accusano certamente il colpo due istituzioni, simbolo della globalizzazione finanziaria “one way”: la super-banca d'affari Goldman Sachs (che aveva provato a far sparire il buco dal bilancio greco con un maxi-derivato); e - per l'appunto - il Fondo monetario internazionale. L'Fmi è stato lungamente invocato al capezzale di Atene - per curiosa coincidenza - nei giorni in cui un gruppo di hedge fund internazionali (guidati da George Soros) avrebbe tentato un attacco speculativo contro l'euro e i titoli di stati europei più deboli (forse nel mirino c'era anche l'Italia). Singolarmente la pressione si sta scaricando fuori dall'euro (sulla sterlina) e su un'economia come quella britannica, poco integrata con il tessuto manifatturiero del Continente. Tremonti ne ha approfittato per coniare una nuova sigla: i rischi sistemici non vengono più solo dai Pigs (Portogallo, Italia, Grecia e Spagna) ma anche dai “Fire”: quegli stati che hanno puntato molto su finanza, assicurazioni e immobiliare, come la grande città-stato apolide che si chiama Londra.
Il Fondo - la grande “banca degli stati” nata a Bretton Woods, la Yalta economico-finanziaria che chiuse la seconda guerra mondiale - è però rimasto inattivo: non è stato né l'ufficio studi, né il consiglio d'amministrazione, né il garante, né il finanziatore ultimo del salvataggio greco. Il Fondo - di cui gli Usa restano “azionista di riferimento” poteva “essere utile come banca”, ha ammesso Tremonti, ma non è stato indispensabile: certamente non come “istituzione di governo”. Almeno per la governance di quella federazione monetaria che si chiama Europa. Anche questa è una tappa di un’exit strategy che sarà ancora lunga e sarà prevedibilmente ancora ricca di sorprese e riequilibri: non necessariamente gradevoli per tutte le realtà del vecchio Occidente. Europa compresa.