2010: Giant Gathering Storm Clouds

Jim Willie CB

The year 2008 bore my mark as the year the system broke. A public article addressed the issues, laid out before the breakdown occurred in September of that year. The consequences for the many failures, the desperate nationalizations, the hasty scrambles to put financial sewage under USGovt ownership, the realization of TARP as a vast slush fund for illegitimate bank rescues, the official monetization plans put forth to prevent bond implosions, and much more occurred in the year 2009 as a recognized aftermath. Here we are in 2010 and the threats must again be laid out. A prelude was offered in an mid-December article entitled " Full Circle of Govt Debt Default" (CLICK HERE) where a global sovereign debt ruin in vicious circle was displayed the sequence that started in the Untied States and will end in the Untied States. Rather than make specific forecasts of extreme events, a list is presented much like a smorgasbord. The odds are 100:1 in favor at least one extreme event occurring in this current calendar year in my view. The odds are very high in favor of several events taking place this year. The key here is that a great many extremely damaging and highly disruptive events loom like giant gathering storm clouds that meet, complete with lightning displays. More terrestrial types might consider that a great many land mine explosives lie in the wide pathways ahead. At least a few extreme craters will be formed. A few financial edifices will be toppled. Great changes come, especially to the global power structures. This time around, the stakes are bigger, and entire nations will face debt failure and national realignment. The ripple effects will reshape the global financial system.

The blind, the deficient, and the compromised fail to fully appreciate and detect the meaning of the Dubai debt default or the Iceland financial failure. They actually believe these busts have been dealt with by the very strength of the capitalist system. These default failures signify a continuation of the credit market crisis that never went away. Instead, accounting fraud was legalized. Instead, bloated bank toxic balance sheets were permitted. Instead, sovereign debt finance by monetary expansion was endorsed, i.e. monetization. Instead, stock equity sales to the nitwits incapable of reading balance sheets was widespread. Instead, broader statistical gimmickry of economic data was installed. Not a single meaningful reform has taken place on US soil, which guarantees the continuation of the credit crisis is assured. No substantial reduction of US home loan balance sheets. No return of US manufacturing. No liquidation of dead US banks. No removal of Goldman Sachs from control of the USDept Treasury. No disclosure of US Federal Reserve disbursements of over $1 trillion. No steps to restore the Glass Steagall Act to create firewalls between the financial sectors. No effort to prosecute for $trillion bond fraud. No initiative to bring to light the deep criminal lace to Fannie Mae and AIG, now protected under USGovt aegis. No attempt to rein in military spending and endless wars. No movement to create a monetary system with a currency other than the current debt denominated $20 bill coupons. Instead, with much greater force, enthusiasm, and recklessness, the financial system hurtled deeper into the Weimar chambers of commerce. Worse, most steps simply apply greater doses of precisely what caused the problems with debt overload and excessive monetary expansion. Worse doubly, most reforms grant even more power to those responsible for the breakdowns and fraud perpetration. The Untied States is being recognized internationally as a rogue nation moving headlong toward communism, run by powerful syndicates, whose most prominent foreign policy is explained by military hardware.

There is no shred of the capitalist structural makeup remotely evident outside of Asia. We see cronyism systems in the West, but worse, we see syndicate systems with alleged cords of criminality. The discredit of the central bank franchise system is barely noticed by the mainstream, which applauds the printing press monetary operators without recognition of the repeat of Weimar chapters. Just today, the New York Times formally posed the question of how the US Federal Reserve can prevent the next asset bubble when it missed the last one. It actually misses all asset bubbles, creates them all, and denies the existence of each during formation. The signature signals of a failed central bank is a lasting 0% rate and heavy monetization, called euphemistically Quantitative Easing so as to make economist failure sound like some wondrous medical prescription in high falluting nomenclature. How about the US Financial Reform being called Economicus Moribundus and the vast printing of money in monetary policy being called Whisky Delugius?

Let's review a rather lengthy list of potential events. These are not wild raving pronouncements. Each has some critical mass of likelihood. Each event is presented like an ugly perverse budding shoot on the charred landscape, easily representing an element of the Paradigm Shift. The global shift is almost totally missed by the American leaders, the press networks, and the people. My interpretation is that they live inside the US Dome of Perception, and hardly ever pay attention to matters pertaining to the USDollar. They instead regard it as a constant factor, quite erroneously. The list to follow includes matters often considered sacred, due to the sanctity and inertness of sovereign governments and their debt. The event closest to the Untied States is the dreadful dismemberment of Mexico, which is Greece on steroids and cocaine with the temperature turned up and the violence turned up, where the law enforcement and military have both been compromised and infiltrated. It is a tight race between the US and Mexico as to which nation is more overrun by crime syndicates. The difference is the US has white collar crime, while Mexico violent crime.

The following events are presented as potential disasters looming, spanning the full spectrum, each with triggers in numerous arenas. These are potential disasters, not presented as forecasts, but rather as a list to beware for nasty highly disruptive eruptions. They are loaded with a geopolitical streak, in keeping with Paradigm Shift that signifies a powerful set of changes in altered power. The one common trait all the following potential events have is that they are systemic game change agents. The globe will be reshaped by each and every event that comes to pass. They are not listed in any order of likelihood, since they are all very much at risk of occurrence, and integrally interconnected to a frightening degree. Each would heap tremendous damage, disruption, and devastation, upon occurrence. One should note that if one or two events occur, then others might occur with domino effect from the chain reaction of chaos and opportunity. Note for instance, how the Dubai default resulted in Greek Govt debt downgrade, with no connection except possibly some ancient Greek statues in marble lined parlors in Dubai edifices. The ripple effects will be felt for a full year, just like Lehman, Fannie Mae, and AIG in the United States, just like Northern Rock, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Lloyds in England. The triggers have been ignited, and constant fallout comes. The process never stopped, only the perception that it had stopped. The process can only stop when liquidation and reform occur. Neither is remotely evident.

Use the following scale for grading risk and effect. The likelihood of the event happening will be shown as a percentage, with 0% the lowest and 100% a certainty. The impact for each and every stated event would indeed be huge, extreme, and dangerous. Many different sources have provided lists of extreme events for the new current year, a tradition. Much lies in common for those who choose to think ahead, instead of employing the common practice of putting a new less credible layer of deception on the current landscape. The best among all the sources seen in my view has been the Business Insider. Thanks to my own circle of colleagues and confidants, who provided at least a couple of events listed.

EXTREME WARNINGS FOR EXTREME TIMES

Saudi Royals fall

The Saudi Arabian royal family would lose government control to the Islamic Fundamentalists and is replaced. Scores of old royals escape loaded with hundreds of billion$ in assets, conjuring up memories of the Shah of Iran. Disruptions and instability spread across the entire Persian Gulf. A clampdown of fundamentalist groups in other Gulf nations invites backlash. Occupation forces in Iraq face renewed resistance. (chance: 20%)

China gains full naval military capability

The Chinese Military would attain aircraft carrier force with three carrier groups. In expert circles they call it blue water capability. With this potential, including long range strike potential, the balance of power in Asia is altered. Pressures are put as a result toward changed alliances in key nations considered loyal to the West. Certain strategic points gain attention, as focus is trained on the Mallacan Straits, the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, the Bosporus Straits, the access routes to the Bering Sea, Australia, and South America. (chance: 30%)

Russian cuts off natural gas to Eastern Europe

Russia would enter a deep dispute with Eastern European nations, in particular Ukraine, and cuts off the flow of natural gas. Disputes center on return to the Russian fold from the independent factions encouraged by the Untied States motivated by the many Color Revolutions. Caught in the middle, at the end of the distribution lines, is Central Europe, whose ties forged by Germany to Russia remain healthy and strong. Russia later forges an alliance with Central Europe that results in some stability, as it becomes clear that Russia has come of age as a peacemaker with further ramifications in time. (chance: 50%)

Greece defaults on its debt

Great problems would result for the parent European Union, sure to fracture. Germany lets it go, does not cover the Greek debt, but employs plausible deniability on minimal offered assistance. A chain reaction begins, to reach the other vulnerable nations. Portugal, Italy, and Spain teeter upon the event, soon to suffer their own defaults, none aided. Even France suffers the ignominy of default, but is aided by Germany in the end, unlike the PIGS nations. The crux of the matter is refinance rollover of debt, which fails. The non-German EuroBonds then rise in yields, enough to force a split in the Euro currency to form the Nordic Core Euro. Default nations revert to their old former currencies and suffer massive devaluations. (chance: 80%)

Mexico fails as a state

The conditions in Mexico would become fully recognized and openly discussed. Two factors are front & center. The rise of the drug cartels in their control of the nation in numerous aspects is already global news. The unexpected net import of crude oil that ruins the nation's federal finances is not yet global news. The former has been understood, but the loss of oil exports takes the region by total surprise. Hyper-inflation then hits Mexico, which prints money to alleviate the federal budget shortfall. Chaos results on numerous levels. Supply disruption hits the US southern refineries. (chance: 70%)

Credit crisis relapse hits the US banks

The Untied States would suffer a relapse into a second round of bank failures, debt defaults, institutional liquidations, corporate deaths, and market disruptions. The proximal cause is the spread and continuation of the property decline, home foreclosures, and commercial defaults. Numerous bank analysts continue to harp on commercial mortgage loss risk after a 40% price decline, so far covered up by phony accounting rules. Impaired assets sit as bank assets. A trigger is the USFed removal from mortgage bond support, coupled with a powerful second downwave in housing prices from Option ARMortgages. A solution is put forth for wide USGovt purchase of housing inventory and the official advent of Fannie Mae as landlord. The supply chain is disrupted in extreme ways, as commercial paper grinds to a halt, and a deeper recession takes root. (chance: 40%)

The US supply chain suddenly suffers disruptions

The economic supply chain would be crippled by its two primary points of vulnerability. The finance credit lines are tied to wounded commercial paper markets. The actual tangible output supply comes from industries that struggle in credit flow, unstable prices, burdensome regulations, worker shortages, and constricted metal supply. Certain trucking firms have already shut down. Gasoline refineries are below their 1990 capacity. Mexican oil supply is soon to end. The lack of trained skilled experienced workers is chronic. (chance: 40%)

Fannie Mae is revealed as a slush fund, toxic bond haven, and object of grand criminal fraud coverup

Leaks would lead to calls for further Congressional investigations of mortgage bond fraud and past presidential pilferage. At the same time, various alerts would be given that the USGovt is harboring a black hole certain to cost over $2 trillion in additional bailouts, maybe up to $4 trillion. The prospect of wide USGovt home ownership from default sparks research reports and great scrunity, even clamor by younger members of Congress. The unlimited credit line to back USAgency debt securities has opened the door to a nasty effect on perception of USTreasury debt, as global perception of the actual USGovt debt ramps up 50%. Discussion of default rises. (chance: 40%)

The real 911 story comes out

The full seamy story would be revealed with many participants named. No further comment except that nation then would become deeply divided in reaction, and international isolation would result. The beneficiaries become the object of scrunity, criticism, and investigation. Attention turns to the swine flu vaccination and global Cap & Trade green taxes, each of which faces the harsh eye of investigation in Europe. (chance: 20%)

Iran is attacked

Great controversy would result from the direct attack of its nuclear facilities and other targets. Controversy would stir from scattered unconfirmed reports of involvement by various nations. Retaliation by Russia and China, long promised, then comes in hidden ways not fully understood. In the aftermath, the banks in the Mideast region are subjected to great scrutiny by several global players, especially one US ally nation. (chance: 10%)

Japan suffers a financial & economic crisis

A recession would take grip, spreading to its financial markets. Reduced export trade eliminated the trade surplus long ago. The Japanese Govt Bond then jumps higher by 2% or 3% in bond yield. The rising Yen currency consequently runs up 20% to 30% from the reverse of the Yen Carry Trade. Their export trade grinds to a near halt, and major conglomerate banks announce insolvency. Then China steps in. (chance: 40%)

UKGovt suffers a debt downgrade

The United Kingdom would be the first major industrialized nation to lose its high credit rating. The UKGilt bond yields then rise above 6% without pause. The threat of sovereign debt default is debated. The British Pound currency falls, which perversely aids the USDollar. Shock waves extend to the Wall Street financial center. Later, scrutiny comes to the USTreasury for its own downgrade and default risk. (chance: 50%)

Talk swirls for eliminating some central banks

Debate would focus on the central bank role as cause for asset bubbles, and extensions to the faulty nature of money itself. Analysts would cite money free from anchors of asset backing. However, awareness rises of the impracticality of central bank elimination, since debt liquidation and cleared decks cannot occur without global depression. In the background is rampant discussion of syndicate involvement and the risks of retaliation by the secretive banker organizations. (chance: 10%)

China faces a degree of chaos

Falling export trade, faltering bank reserves, empty commercial buildings, rising unemployment, idle factories, stalled construction projects, and restive population would contribute to a national crisis that struggles to be told amidst press controls. Armed with a $2500 billion war chest of reserves, China begins to convert assets into tangible rescues, aid, and welfare. The Chinese crisis then ignites a global sale of USTreasurys. As an offshoot to the chaos, the colonization of America then begins, as China cashes in on its USAgency Mortgage Bonds. It exploits it cut deal of Eminent Domain conversion of bonds into property. (chance: 20%)

Food prices soar in the US

The divergence between official crop forecasts would clash with the reality of crop failures and profound shortages this summer. Being the greatest food production source, the US crisis spreads globally. The deCarbonnel threat is realized, as foreign nations sell US$-based assets in order to finance food supply purchases. China enters the fray as a buyer of distressed farm property, amidst accusations of carpetbagger. (chance: 80%)

JPMorgan is object of persistent rumors of gigantic credit derivative losses

The slowly rising USTreasury Bond long-term yield would cause deep painful losses to JPMorgan. Their abuse of Interest Rate Swap contracts becomes a topic of debate. The monetization of USTreasurys becomes a topic of debate. The ability for the USGovt to control its deficits and auxiliary (hidden) losses becomes a topic of debate. Even bond fraud within JPM hallowed halls becomes a topic of debate. To cover the losses, monetary inflation grows out of control, and a USDollar decline ensues, taking the DX dollar index below the 70 level. (chance: 40%)

London metals exchange shuts down

The venerable London Bullion Market Assn would close, unable to fulfill gold orders. The varied stories continue regarding unorthodox practices from the London metals exchange in the month of December, like redemption of gold contracts in cash, like outsized demands for gold delivery mainly by Chinese entities but increasingly by the Swiss, like satisfaction of gold contracts with Street Tracks GLD shares, and much more. Scrutiny with assays upon high volume delivery have been standard since the tungsten gold story emerged, an indirect confirmation often ignored. The supply chain with intermediaries suddenly halts, as they too have no gold bullion to supply the LBMA. Companies shut down. Lawsuits result. Prosecutions begin. Midlevel officials are arrested. Some turn state's evidence. The gold price enters a state of extreme confusion, with vast discrepancies between paper gold price and physical gold price. (chance: 70%)

Gold and Silver Start a New Year

Like after a stormy night, the new year has arrived much like a new market with fresh perspectives. The end of tax loss selling, accompanied by tax gain offsets, has come. The beneficial effect is equally shared between gold and silver, although the percentage gain from the recent reversals this week is larger for silver. Not shown in the two graphs is the upward jump in today's prices. They extended gains, with gold reaching the 1135 level, and silver reaching the 18.1 level. The most important factors to keep in clear focus are why gold is rising in a powerful upward trend in the first place. They have not changed. There is no end in government spending, from the Untied States, the UK, Europe, and Japan. There is no meaningful reform of any kind, surely no remedy unless one considers padding banker balance sheets with taxpayer funds as pre-requisite for remedy. There is only a rampant rabid race to grow the money supply, to produce federal deficits, to expand the central bank balance sheets. The real adjusted cost of money is negative after price inflation. The 0% official rates have become fixtures, as central banks look increasingly incompetent in justifying their continuation.

Notice the sharp reversals since the new January month began. Long-term moving averages remain in the uptrend, despite the orchestrated December correction. Investment demand is skyrocketing, a story barely told in the Western press. The wide band for the silver price hints of a strong price rise toward the 20 level on the next upswing. It has already begun. The tumultuous 2010 year, identified by at least a few key critical events listed above, will send the gold & silver prices soaring. Those who believe the hype in the previous month by the mainstream biased press will regret not climbing aboard. This will be the year of magnificent crises that change the face of the global financial structures. Debt will be dumped like a broken Vegas gambler. Paper money will be discarded like yesterday's newspaper. With the crude oil price at almost $83 per barrel, where are the Deflation Knuckleheads now? They led some gold investors to exit before the push from $900 to $1200. They remain legends only to the image in their own mirrors. The crude oil price might actually come down somewhat in the coming month or two, from scads of vessels loaded and sitting at sea. But gold & silver are set to continue a powerful upward thrust in price, as the perversion of money has become a desperate broad global pursuit. Most major currencies face serious debasement. This is a great opportunity to join the Precious Metals Locomotive after a pit stop. Targets are gold at $1375 and silver at $22.25 per ounce.

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Jim Willie CB, editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”

Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of several smallcap companies positioned to rise during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. An historically unprecedented mess has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com . For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at JimWillieCB@aol.com

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Class Warfare American Style

Jesse's Café Américain

Matt Taibbi's reaction to the ZeroHedge story with regard to Turbo Tim's lifting of the government support on Christmas Eve for the GSE's was exactly my own. You can read it in its entirety here. What he does not overtly say is that this is class warfare, and it is becoming worse in the US than at any time since the 1930's. And the outcome of this will be a fundamental test of the US commitment to its republic. The media stokes the viewing public into emotionally-based and virulently distracting arguments about liberal versus conservative, while the gentried class skins them all alive. One only has to watch the 'news shows' on American television to see thelack of real content and discussion, with diametrically opposed 'strategists' hurling sound bytes at each other with all the depth of a schoolyard standoff. It is comfortable to retreat into an 'us versus them' view of the world, and the noble class in the States is all too ready to facilitate that appeal to the darker emotions. People know deep down that it is a scam, and believe that it is easier to go along and get yours while you can, than actually attempting to change a system grown corrupt in an aging empire. This explains more than one might imagine. Why do the economists continually excuse outrageously unsustainable economic behaviour and financial systems that are as productive as games of chance? Why do some media outlets obviously take sides and pander to the worst biases in their viewers, supplying them with easy reflexive answers to any suggestion that something might actually be wrong? Why do adult people fall for this and regress to childish name calling so readily? It is because they are afraid. They know the system is broken, that the country is in for hard times, and that the work of reform is going to be difficult and painful. It is so easy to adopt whatever red or blue meme, whomever you think is going to deliver undeserved wealth to you, or at least safety and position. As always look for a fallguy, some identifiable and out of favor group. The search for scapegoats may be be violent. At turning points such as these, when the time is right, a 'great man' will stand up and many will follow. Who will it be, and what principals and principles will they represent?

Obama was such a one, but he is obviously like the character of Robert the Bruce in the movie Braveheart, or perhaps the Bruce's father, who chooses practically and cynically to support the nobles. He is finished; no one will follow him as his betrayal becomes too painfully obvious. Will it be the banal fascist with the easy answers, the vile leftist with retribution to offer, or a 'braveheart' who has nothing to offer but hardship, and freedom? America is not alone in this. The UK is further along the path. We may see the first expression of the future of the West in London than in Washington. Only the future will tell.

"There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class, the rich class, that's making war, and we're winning." Warren Buffett New York Times, November 26, 2006.

"The class warfare is over -- we lost. I want to make that announcement today. Working people lost. The middle class lost." Dennis Kucinich, 18 December 2009

And in the short term there will be quite a bit of jostling at the middle of the ladder, by those who fancy themselves, or their children, suited for the new nobility and so seek to perpetuate the status quo, with a lot of kicking and dog eat dog going on at the lower levels as the ladder shortens, trying to knock the immigrant, the less connected, off into the abyss, to feed the beast. Out of all of this will come something different, and most likely something unexpected. Its an old story, one that replays over and over. The remedy is sound reason and the Constitution, but these forces have been in retreat for the past ten years at least. Reform and justice have few friends while the looting of a generation is in progress.

"For what we’ve learned in the last few years as one scandal after another spilled onto the front pages is that the bubble economies of the last two decades were not merely monstrous Ponzi schemes that destroyed trillions in wealth while making a small handful of people rich. They were also a profound expression of the fundamentally criminal nature of our political system, in which state power/largess and the private pursuit of (mostly short-term) profit were brilliantly fused in a kind of ongoing theft scheme that sought to instant-cannibalize all the wealth America had stored up during its postwar glory, in the process keeping politicians in office and bankers in beach homes while continually moving the increasingly inevitable disaster to the future. That is a terrible story and it is also sort of a taboo story, since we don’t really have a system of media now that is willing or even able to digest that dark and complicated truth. Instead, our media - which has always been at best an inadvertent accomplice to these messes - is basically set up to take every revelation about the underlying truth and split it down the middle, feeding half to one side of the political spectrum and one half to the other, where the actual point is then burned up in the useless smoke of a blame game. The essentially complicit nature of the two ruling political parties was in this way covered up for decades, as the crimes of the Democrats were greedily consumed as entertainment by the Limbaugh crowd while the crimes of the Bushies became hot-selling t-shirts and bumper stickers for the Air America listenership. The abiding mutual hatred the red/blue groups shared consistently prevented any kind of collective realization about the structure of the overall scheme... Everyone had a hand in the bubble, from the congressmen who killed regulatory initiatives to the regulators who snoozed at the wheel to the GSEs to the Fed to the banks to the ratings agencies to the lenders. I don’t think it’s really controversial to say that, but it does seem like there’s an argument brewing about what that across-the-board complicity means. My own personal feeling is that our recent bubbles weren’t much different than pyramid scams and lotteries; they’re the handiwork of an essentially regressive and deeply cynical political organization that systematically hoovers up taxes and investment money mainly from middle-class suckers, where it eventually gets eaten in short-term cashouts and mostly blown on sports cars and tropical vacations and eye jobs for the trophy wives of Wall Street executives. Crackonomics: take literally all the spare money from four square city blocks and turn it into one tricked-out Escalade. For me the basic dynamic of the mortgage bubble is some Ivy League dickwad hawking a billion dollars of securitized subprime mortgages to a pension fund, and then Hobie-sailing off into the sunset with a bonus after they all blow up. Of course my seeing it that way might have a lot to do with my own personal psychological prejudices, and I get that some other person with different hangups might choose to focus on Barney Frank deciding to “roll the dice on home ownership” with the GSEs... This GSE story is a big one, but if it gets used as a path back to a “The Market Reacted Rationally” version of history, we’re screwed. It has to be looked at as an important part of a diabolical whole, a symbiotic scheme in which the banks and the state were irreversibly intertwined in an enterprise that on both sides was never about market economics, but crime. Because otherwise… the diversionary notion that one side or the other is wholly to blame is part of what makes the whole scam possible..."

Why would you care? Why be concerned about the other? Because when the time comes, there may be no place to hide. Madness makes few rational distinctions between what is and is not worth preserving. Time to listen to the survivors, and not imagine that this time it will be different.

"First they came for the intellectuals, and I did not speak out - because I was not a intellectual; Then they came for the communists, and I did not speak out-because i was not a communist; Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out - because I was not a working man; Then they came for the disabled, and I did not speak out - because I was not disabled; Then they came for the gypies, and I did not speak out - because I was not a gypsy; Then they came for the Catholics, and I did not speak out - because I was a Protestant; Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out - because I was not a Jew; Then they came for me - and there was no one left to speak out for me."

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The Gates of Hell Have Opened

Bob Clark

The abyss is widening, many have already fallen in. The Fat Boys at Goldman say they are doing God's work, do they really believe that. Maybe they know dark secrets we are not privy to. What does God's work entail? Stopping fear and panic? Holding up asset prices and presenting the illusion of a stable, recovering economy? If they fail, then hell will follow.

Phony Funding

On the surface it appears that the Feds are creating a recovery with money borrowed from foreign lenders, it ain't necessarily so. Much of that money is actually printed by the Federal Reserve itself and given to the foreign entities who then lend it back to the U.S. Treasury. Why, because there have been funding auctions that failed to attract enough bids, when it happens it throws a frigid pall of fear over the financial markets . Everyone holds their breath and steps back. They can not let that happen again, one more time could be fatal. It is all a con, a phony recovery paid for by phony funding auctions. The foreigners don't want any more worthless paper from the U.S.A. that they know will never be paid back but what they do want is to get rid of all the garbage debt on their books from the likes of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, debt know as agency paper. So a deal is struck. The Fed prints the money and takes the bad agency paper onto their books and the foreigners write a cheque using some of the new money they get to buy U.S. bonds, the treasury then pays them interest on the money they just gave them.

In March, the Fed got the idea they would avoid taking on that bad debt by cutting out the middle man and just printing the money and buying the bonds themselves. Remember how the poop hit the fan. The foreigners backed away [no kickback, no dough] and bond markets convulsed. They won't try that again.

They will keep printing money and they will keep faking the auctions, there can be no more failures. There is no way out. It is stealth quantitative easing.

100 Year Debt Blow Off For 100 years it has been all about debt, debt finances growth and inflation finances debt. We are at a point now where a debt blow off has occurred. A blow off so large that it has torn the economic world order apart. China a brutal, oppressive regime living in quiet poverty now has all the money and is still rising toward world dominance. The United States has destroyed it's manufacturing base and squandered it's resources. It has abused it's world leader status and under minded it's hegemony advantage. In one generation it has become the largest debtor nation in history. Globalization has created very tough competitors, it is much easier to be a consumer. Easy money has caused an explosion in the world population. Forget shortages of food and energy, think too many people. In the U.S. alone it now requires 400 billion dollars per month just to keep this monster alive. Papering over this puppy will take big inflation.

The final bill for this recovery is estimated to be 20 trillion dollars and so far it ain't much of a recovery. Add that to the existing debt and the numbers are staggering. At the same time, the average worker can't even find a crummy $30,000 a year job. Something stinks! The truth is the whole economic system stinks! Here are some basic facts.

Demand was artificially induced by the huge flow of credit which was mistaken for an abundance of liquidity by most economists and strategists. Now there is a huge over supply of everything.

Everyone that wanted a house got a house. Everyone that wanted to renovate did so. China has over expanded and is now taking quantitative easing to a new level.

Countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Vietnam, Iceland, Dubai and former Iron curtain countries can't pay the interest on their debt and are collapsing. The E.U. is in peril.

About $1.5 trillion of Commercial real estate mortgages mature over the next few years, and many of them will not qualify for refinancing.

Housing is facing huge supply problems and all the "pay what you can" and "liar loans" are coming up for renewal.

Consumers are not coming back any time soon, they still have unsustainable debt levels. Jobs are not coming back either, not well paying jobs. I ask, who is indispensable? Most are not. Many will do our jobs better, for less money and there are many hungry job seekers. This knowledge alone kills spending.

More people work for the public sector or are on some form of assistance than work in the private sector.

The financial leaders are a bunch of liars and cheats trying to zoom the world and renege on their debts and obligations by inflating our future away and why not, it has worked for 100 years. Has the bill finally come due?

I won't go on but trust me I could. However it is not my intention to be a worry monger. My point is that nothing is as it appears. The economy we think we know and our place in it is illusionary. Markets and asset prices are clearly manipulated. Economically, it is all about jacking the price of over valued assets still higher. Take away the high asset prices and you take away the middle class. Equities must be supported or pension funds, the ultimate Ponzi scheme, will end. Higher prices or no pension for you, it is that simple. Home values are where many view their future security. Take away the high home prices and you take away the social order. They must be protected at all cost.

The recovery is simply a transfer of money from savers, through an inflationary devaluation of their cash holdings and taxpayers through increasing the national debt, to the asset holders. Nothing is manufactured or sold. No industries are created except the building of more houses. This at the same time as 14 % of all homes in the U.S. with mortgages are in arrears or default. The poor are getting poorer.

Over in Boomerville, land of the middle class, a place I visit often, I see four themes. The first is ignorance, the second is entitlement, number three is complacency and four, well, I won't say, I have to go back. They don't know and they don't want to know what is really happening.

They expect everything will workout in their favor and feel no pressing need to take any precautions. They may be right, they are loaded with assets.

In Your Face

If you invest using the fudged data or what you read coming from the top fundamental analysts and bloggers, you may find you don't fair too well. They are good and very convincing with a constant flow of new writings but most have missed this huge rally or been calling an end to it since June. To be fair, everything they say would be valid in a perfect world. However we are not in a perfect world and if you act on their opinions you may end up as cannon fodder for the professional traders. The pros don't care about bogus reports and economic data. They need someone on the other side of each trade, their source of profits is order flow, the more one directional the thinking the better. They don't care which way it is trending, they take the other side. They have very deep pockets, they will take everything you give them and then turn the market and shove it back in your face.

Cry Havoc and Unleash the Bankers from Hell

My clients often come to me beaten and bloody. They have been forced into the trading arena because they are being held upside down by their ankles and shaken by their govt and the banks. They search for higher returns in the shark banker infested waters. Everywhere they turn is another blood sucking, venal banker or a bank owned brokerage is gouging them on commissions, exchange rates or user fees. In desperation they fall into the hands of some predatory con artist selling a useless trading system based on indicators or moving averages they could get in a book from the library, for free. They buy into some crappy option trading scheme or a level 2 quote thing. Hey, maybe the FX seminar at the local hotel. They wonder if maybe the chubby, bald, stock picking guy or the girl with the stupid hat can help them. Truly babes in the woods, without even rudimentary trading skills and no understanding of risk or how to manage it. I help who I can but I know there are many standing at the abyss. Was it a coincidence the S&P 500 bottomed at 666?

The U.S. government has fully sanctioned and unleashed the Fat Boys to act on their behalf, the trouble is there is no one smart enough in government to control them. [See my article "Due process ".]

In this upside down world of lies and manipulation if you trade or invest, you or your advisor had better be able to follow the money, track the Fat Boys covert machinations and have a solid understanding of risk management. The fact is, you are either with them or a victim.

Copyright © 2010 Bob Clark

Bob Clark is a professional trader with over twenty years experience, he also provides real time online trading instruction, publishes a daily email trading advisory and maintains a web blog at www.winningtradingtactics.blogspot.com his email is linesbot@gmail.com.

Bob Clark | Email

winningtradingtactics.blogspot.com

Health Care: Here Come the Unintended Consequences

John Rubino

As a general rule, DollarCollapse.com doesn’t get involved in public policy debates. Not because they aren’t important, but because the damage has already been done. The U.S., along with Japan and most of Europe, has passed the point where policy fixes are possible. There’s no magic marginal tax rate or Fed Funds rate or immigration law that will avert disaster. All that’s left is for the current system to implode, one way or another. Then policy will matter again, as we try to fashion a workable new system from the rubble of the old.

But every once in a while a policy-related story comes along that’s too good to pass up, like this from CFO Magazine:

Farewell, Company Health Plans?

Now that health-care reform bills have passed both the House and the Senate, some CFOs are seriously considering whether or not to drop employee coverage.

Alix Stuart, CFO.com | US December 31, 2009

For the past 19 years, Frank Santos, CFO of the privately held, seven-property Rosen Hotels and Resorts in Orlando, Florida, has prided himself on delivering high-quality health care to his employees in a unique and low-cost way.In 1991 the company set up a primary-care clinic in one of its hotels, allowing employees to get basic health-care services during their working hours. By cutting out other primary-care options and contracting directly with hospitals and specialists for additional services, Santos says, the company has been able to offer a full health-care package to its 5,000 or so employees and their families and save at least $10 million a year compared with national averages.Beyond the basics, the company goes to great lengths to keep its employees healthy, including offering them many wellness services, such as exercise classes and serving only healthy foods (no French fries) in its cafeterias.

The current Senate health-care reform bill that passed on Christmas Eve, however, may change all that. "There’s no incentive for someone who has a plan such as ours to keep it," says Santos. "We currently spend about $2,700 per associate, but the government is going to allow us to forgo that plan and pay $750 per associate," he says, referring to the $750 per-employee penalty that would be levied on employers whose employees need government subsidies to purchase health insurance called for in the current Senate bill.

Indeed, many other CFOs are considering the same option. "A number of midsize employers are thinking they would drop coverage because it would be more economical to do that, given the penalties, and the employees would still receive coverage," says Dean Hatfield, senior vice president and health-practice leader at Sibson Consulting.

Larger employers that could be at a competitive disadvantage by not offering health-care insurance may also make substantial changes in how they deliver it to employees. "The new rules, as proposed, are going to make group insurance more expensive, and at the same time they’re going to make the individual market more viable," says Steve Wetzell, vice president of health-care initiatives for the HR Policy Association, a group of nearly 300 large employers. "That creates the opportunity for employers to take a hard look at going from defined benefit to defined contribution," similar to the widespread shift from pensions to employer 401(k) contributions, in which employees could take a subsidy from their employer to buy their own insurance.

Among the proposed items that could raise the cost of sponsoring a health-care insurance plan are $500 billion in cuts to the Medicare budget and taxes on prescription-drug manufacturers, both of which are likely to create more cost-shifting to plan sponsors. Under one version of the bill, plan sponsors could also be subject to state-by-state inspections of their benefits administration.

Meanwhile, employers that offer more than $8,500 worth of benefits to individuals or $23,000 to families would be taxed at 40% for the overage. Hatfield says about 11% of Sibson clients would exceed those thresholds now, and many more are likely to in the future, since the threshold increases, as currently envisioned, would not match historical annual increases in health-care costs.

Santos says he knows employees are worried about losing their current coverage and would much prefer to continue it, but that it will be hard to justify turning down the $8 million the company could save, net of lost tax deductions. One compromise, he says, may be to keep the clinic open at a cost of approximately $2 million a year, thereby continuing the primary-care coverage and, he hopes, defraying some insurance costs for employees. But still, he would rather see incentives in the form of tax deductions or some other vehicle to make it economically feasible to continue the model the company has been using.

"We believe our model is one that can so easily be replicated among other employers or groups of employers. If you have 500 employees, you can negotiate very favorable discounts with hospitals and specialists," says Santos. "If the government would [provide an] incentive [for] that, there could be some real cost-saving opportunities. Instead, they are doing just the opposite."

Some thoughts:

• By running an in-house clinic, negotiating with outside providers for cost-effective specialist care, and insisting that employees take care of themselves, Rosen Hotels is able to provide accessible health care for a fraction of what the U.S. now spends per capita. In a rational world, this plan would serve as a model to be emulated.

• But instead of making such plans part of a menu that includes health savings accounts, tax breaks for individual insurance, etc., the federal government takes over and centralizes the entire health care industry. Bad move, which a cynic might conclude is motivated more by a thirst for power than concern for the welfare of citizens.

• The cost estimates for the soon-to-be-enacted national health care plan assume that employers will pick up a big part of the tab by continuing to insure their employees. But based on the above that’s not likely. If the cost of not offering insurance is one-fourth the cost of offering it, then a business owner would be crazy keep their current plan.

• So the first unintended consequence of this latest expansion of government power will be vastly higher costs, as more people than expected end up in the public plan. That means higher deficits, more borrowing, and a faster descent on the slope that leads to the destruction of the dollar.

dollarcollapse.com

Volete diventare poveri? Compratevi una casa

Gen 10 7

Pubblicato da Pietro Cambi alle 01:21 in Apocalypse now, Finanza, Vita quotidiana

Debora ci ha mostrato tante volte la situazione della famiglie americane a cui è "esploso" un mutuo tra le mani. La situazione, che non mostra particolari segni di miglioramento, da quel punto di vista, è davvero cosi grave, in senso letterale. Se non credete a me dovreste credere a Bernanke, governatore della Federal Reserve, uomo dell'anno 2009 e massimo "pompiere" istituzionale della Crisi (probabilmente sta cercando di spengere il fuoco manovrando un idrante che spara un getto di benzina, ma questa è un'altra storia). In questo articolo si racconta di come anche lui, oltre ad avere un leasing sulla macchina (l'unica) di famiglia, ha dovuto ricontrattare il mutuo sulla bella casa a Capitol Hill che era, sono le sue esatte parole, esploso: "They have also just refinanced their Capitol Hill home because they “had an adjustable rate mortgage and it exploded.” They now are paying off this mortgage

on a 30-year fixed rate of a little over 5 percent."

Ed in Italia?

In Italia il crollo delle quotazioni del mercato immobiliare, la crisi economica ed il collasso di centinaia di migliaia di contratti a termine ed altri posti d precariato creativo vario, senza contare gli 800.000 posti di lavori fissi persi nell'ultimo anno, stanno colpendo pesantemente le famiglie che hanno, tra le tante spese, anche un mutuo da pagare.

Date le prospettive per il futuro, sia in termini di occupazione, che di mercato immobiliare, che di mutui, vi è una elevata possibilità che una famiglia su tre, tra coloro che si accingono a comprare una casa con un mutuo, scenda sotto la soglia di povertà nei prossimi anni.

Questi almeno sono i risultati di un interessante studio riassunto qui, basato sugli ultimi dati dell'osservatorio sul credito al dettaglio che potrete leggere qui.

Se siete lettori fedeli di Crisis ( non lo siete? Pentitevi e cominciate ad esserlo, tze) la cosa non dovrebbe stupirvi.

La nostra posizione la posso riassumere così:

La Crisi immobiliare è qui per restare, al di fuori di momentanee oscillazioni, ed anzi, secondo ogni ragionevolezza, peggiorerà per il combinato disposto di alti costi del credito, numero crescente di alloggi invenduti sul mercato e aumento delle famiglie con seri problemi economici.

Questo fa si che una famiglia che ha contratto un mutuo da poco si trovi stretta in una morsa. Da un lato l'impossibilità di rivendere la casa per recuperare quanto già investito, dall' altro lato il mutuo che la sta strangolando. Purtroppo, finita la sospensiva di un anno stabilita, con diversi limiti tra l'altro, da Tremonti, il problema si ripresenterà. Le famiglie avranno la scelta tra perdere la casa e quanto già investito e ricontrattare il mutuo in termini sicuramente piu' onerosi per loro. Molti, quasi tutti, anzi, ricontratteranno, dando una ulteriore stretta al loro regime di vita. Il tutto in una prospettiva in cui i tassi possono prendere solo una direzione, ovvero verso l'alto.

In alternativa: credete che possa durare ancora per molto una inflazione allo 0.8% all'anno?

Credete che lo Stato possa continuare a regalare il denaro alle banche ai tassi ridicoli attuali, senza in qualche modo riaccendere l'inflazione?

Credete che il prezzo del petrolio possa rimanere stabile ancora a lungo?

Io, almeno su questo ultimo punto, sono quasi sicuro della risposta: no, non può ed anzi si possono fare stime che hanno una certa probabilità di essere corrette, su quale sarà l'andamento dei prezzi nell'anno appena iniziato.

Ve lo dico subito e l'esporrò per esteso in un prossimo post: nessuna buona nuova in vista, nonostante i vaneggiamenti di Maugeri, responsabile della ricerca e sviluppo ENI, che ha appena pubblicato un articolo inverecondo su Le Scienze, anche lui, meritevole di un bell'articolo al Napalm. (Debora, se ci sei batti un colpo...).

I prezzi del barile risaliranno. E strangoleranno la evanescente ripresina che si ostinano a raccontarci in ogni salsa possibile, sperando che esista davvero, una volta evocatala.

http://crisis.blogosfere.it/2010/01/volete-diventare-poveri-compratevi-una-casa.html

FINANZA/ Dall’Islanda alla Grecia, l’Ue rischia di esplodere

Mauro Bottarelli

Economia e Finanza

giovedì 7 gennaio 2010

L'Ue non aiuterà la Grecia a risanare i conti. A chiarirlo è Jurgen Stark, componente del board della Banca Centrale Europea in un'intervista a Il Sole 24 Ore nella quale afferma che «i mercati si illudono se pensano che alla fine i Paesi membri dell'Ue metteranno mano al portafoglio di Atene». Le difficoltà della Grecia, aggiunge, non dipendono dalla crisi ma «sono state create in casa».

Stark mette anche in guardia sul rally delle borse: gli aiuti all'economia rischiano di gonfiarne la crescita. Per questo, grazie anche alla tenuta dell'inflazione, «l'indicazione è che i tassi rimarranno fermi». Insomma, la Befana ci ha finalmente portato una voce chiara da Francoforte: la si attendeva da mesi, a dire il vero, ma meglio tardi che mai.

Non sarà certo contento il governo greco ma nessuno, ad Atene, in cuor suo sperava veramente in un bail-out in grande stile: o si faranno riforme draconiano, con il fortissimo rischio di instabilità sociale oppure si andrà verso il default, seppur controllato. Ma gli scricchiolii sulla tenuta della cosiddetta eurozona sono tutt'altro che conclusi.

L'Islanda è infatti nella bufera dopo la decisione del presidente della Repubblica, Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, di porre il veto alla legge con cui l'isola ratificava gli accordi con Gran Bretagna e Olanda per rimborsare i correntisti europei della Icesave, fallita nel 2008. Ed è di ieri la notizia che la Standard and Poor's ha messo sotto credit watch negativo il debito del paese, decisione che segue quella di Fitch che ha già declassato il debito di Reykjavik a BB+, con un outlook negativo.

Rientro dalle vacanze anticipato, quindi, per i deputati islandesi che si riuniranno domani (invece che il 26 gennaio, come inizialmente previsto): il Parlamento dovrà infatti votare e decidere se indire il referendum per il prossimo 20 febbraio sulla legge che autorizza l'uso di fondi pubblici per rimborsare per 3,4 miliardi di euro gli istituti di credito britannici e islandesi rimasti invischiati nel crac dell'ex stella del banking online nordico, la già citata Icesave: decisione non semplice poiché circa 60 mila persone, un quarto dell'elettorato, ha presentato per protesta una petizione contro la legge, invocando peraltro il referendum.

Immediate, ovviamente, le proteste di Gran Bretagna e Olanda che puntavano a recuperare quanto perso dai loro connazionali quando, in seguito alla bancarotta, i conti correnti sul web sono stati bloccati e per 400mila investitori, britannici e olandesi appunto, non c'è stato nulla da fare. I cittadini islandesi si sono subito salvati grazie alla garanzia totale dei depositi. Qualora si decidesse di rimborsare anche gli investitori stranieri, ogni islandese si troverebbe a dover saldare un debito di 13 mila euro.

Nel frattempo, ovviamente, è partito il balletto dei cds. Il costo di protezione contro il rischio di default sul debito dell'Islanda è cresciuto: gli swaps a cinque anni sono saliti a 466 punti base, dai precedenti 444 della chiusura Usa di martedì. Ma non solo. Il “caso” Icesave e le modalità con cui verrà gestito da Reijkyavik verrà preso in considerazione nell'accogliere o meno la richiesta dell'isola di aderire all'Unione Europea: la Commissione sta preparando un'indagine ai 27 paesi membri su quando l'Islanda potrà fare il suo ingresso.

Le cose potrebbero complicarsi, visto che il Ministro inglese alle finanze Paul Myners ha già fatto sapere che la controversia sul debito da 3,8 miliardi di euro potrebbe avere un effetto sul supporto britannico all'ingresso dell'Islanda nella Ue: e vista la nazionalità del nuovo Mister - anzi, Mrs - Pesc europeo, c'è da credergli. Ci sono arrivati, il nodo è al pettine. Peccato che, ad occhio e croce, ora sia l'Islanda a ben guardarsi dall'ingresso nella Ue.

Ecco cosa scrivevo il 28 luglio scorso: «Non ho mai detto - il testo del mio ultimo articolo ne è la prova - che a mio avviso esiste un problema storico-etnico-culturale per l’ingresso dell’Islanda dell’Ue. Non lo penso affatto, soprattutto alla luce di chi abbiamo fatto allegramente entrare finora e di chi sta per farlo. Detto questo, se anche la Bei ha fatto l’errore di indicizzare obbligazioni in corona islandese ora inesigibili (che dire dei regolatori dormienti quando mezza Europa operava sul forex scommettendo anche la moglie sul cross tra euro e corona danese?), nessuno mi toglierà dalla testa che prima di gettarsi in un investimento bisognerebbe informarsi: e il fatto che le tre banche islandesi fossero esposte a liabilities pari a 11 volte il Pil del paese lo sapevano tutti, erano il più grosso hedge fund del mondo. Se uno vuole rischiare va benissimo, non si lamenti però poi se picchia la faccia contro il muro…

Non sarà l’Ue a dover pagare dazio, sarà l’Islanda a riprendersi prima del previsto e dire “no grazie” al nodo scorsoio dell’agganciamento all’euro che sta devastando, ad esempio, la Lettonia. Qualche cifra. I disoccupati, nonostante il default globale dell’economia del paese, sono il 9,1% e tendono a scendere in maniera rapida mentre la media dell’eurozona è il 9,5% e tende a salire in maniera devastante. Quest’anno la contrazione dell’economia sarà del 7%, sempre meglio del 9,8% dell’Irlanda. Inoltre, parola di chi è appena tornato da lassù, non si era mai visto un boom del genere del turismo - soprattutto giapponese ben fornito di yen - e di vita notturna, soprattutto di europei: qualcuno comincia a parlare di “Ibiza artica”.

Il perché è presto detto: la corona islandese ha perso metà del suo valore rispetto all’euro dopo il crollo delle sue banche, la vecchia cara svalutazione che attrae. Insomma, tra due-tre anni quando gli islandesi saranno chiamati a dire sì o no all’adesione Ue, si troveranno di fronte a un’economia nazionale già in netta ripresa, mentre dall’altra parte la bomba a orologeria della disoccupazione sarà già esplosa. Il problema vero è l’economia reale, non la finanza. Già oggi la disoccupazione giovanile è al 34% in Spagna, al 28% in Lettonia, al 25% in Italia e al 24% in Grecia e continua a salire».

Scusate ma partendo da queste cifre, come faranno a Bruxelles a vendergli la favoletta della protezione garantita dall’euro, soprattutto se questa garanzia comporta il pagamento di 3,8 miliardi di euro a Gran Bretagna e Olanda? In effetti, poi, l’Islanda sarà già in surplus da quest'anno dopo aver toccato un picco di deficit del 25% del Pil: messi male, certo, ma certamente meglio di Irlanda e Lettonia. Per non parlare, ora, della Grecia. E l'Austria, se non risolve in fretta la grana delle esposizioni a Est delle sue banche ormai semi-nazionalizzate, è destinata a fare la stessa fine.

La Befana, quindi, ci ha portato finalmente chiarezza da Francoforte. Ma anche un sospetto che sa ogni giorno di più di sentenza: l'Europa che si continua ad allargare, spesso artificialmente, quest'anno rischia l'implosione. O un ridimensionamento di dimensioni sostanziali. Tanto più che oltre alla Grecia, anche Italia, Germania e Francia devono rifinanziare il proprio debito in scadenza quest'anno: ci sarà da ridere, con l'aria che tira sui mercati e le svalutazioni bancarie tedesche alle porte. Ridere. Più che altro piangere.

http://www.ilsussidiario.net/News/Economia-e-Finanza/2010/1/7/FINANZA-Dall-Islanda-alla-Grecia-l-Ue-rischia-di-esplodere/59833/

BERNASCONI

Questo alligatore si é fermato a pelo d'acqua ed attende pazientemente la sua preda. Solo al momento giusto mostrerà la sua forza e ferocia. I mercati azionari sono arrivati in prossimità dei nostri obiettivi. Ora si fermano in attesa di nuovi stimoli. Non lasciatevi ingannare da questa calma apparente.

Ieri abbiamo avuto un'altra seduta senza movimenti significativi. L'Eurostoxx50 ha perso per il secondo giorno consecutivo alcuni punti e "balla" appena sopra il nostro obiettivo originario di questo rialzo a 3000 punti (chiusura a 3009 / -0.09%). L'S&P500 ha terminato la seduta a 1137 punti (+0.05%) con un massimo giornaliero a 1139 - é salito quindi ad un punto dal limite inferiore del nostro obiettivo a 1140-1150 punti. I parametri tecnici confermano l'immagine di un trend rialzista solido ma in perdita di momentum e con uno scarso potenziale verso l'alto. I nuovi massimi a 20 giorni sono stati 2160, un buon numero ma sempre lontano da quei 3000 necessari per segnalare l'inizio di un'ulteriore gamba di rialzo. Notiamo un buon comportamento del settore bancario - l'indice BKX é salito di quasi il 5% in tre giorni. La volatilità VIX é scesa a 19.03 - normalmente questo valore resta brevemente sotto i 20 prima che si concretizzi almeno un ritracciamento. La nostra opinione é da settimane invariata: "Per ora il rialzo é destinato a continuare al piccolo trotto - non aspettatevi troppo e prevedete con l'inizio dell'anno prossimo concreti problemi." e gli obiettivi restano quelli formulati il lunedì 14 dicembre: "A questo punto continuiamo a favorire l'aspetto stagionale e prevedere una continuazione del lieve trend rialzista. (...). Le nostre aspettative verso l'alto sono limitate. Il nostro obiettivo si situa a 1140-1150 punti di S&P500 per la prima settimana di gennaio 2010. Questo corrisponde a circa 3000 punti sull'Eurostoxx50. A medio termine abbiamo l'impressione che gli indici azionari stiano distribuendo e quindi, al termine di questa fase rialzista, una consistente correzione é possibile. Vedremo se nelle prossime due settimane appare quella debolezza strutturale, che al momento manca, necessaria ad innescare un ribasso." Pensiamo che il rialzo dovrebbe esaurirsi verso la fine di questa settimana e non vediamo molto potenziale verso l'alto dai livelli attuali - teoricamente solo ancora un +1%. Con settimana prossima i rischi verso il basso sono in aumento.

Il dollaro americano é stabile. L'USD Index é sceso a 77.49 punti mentre il cambio EUR/USD stamattina é a 1.4380. Il dollaro americano sta tendenzialmente rafforzandosi e questa prima gamba di rialzo dovrebbe permettere all'USD Index di salire fino a 80 punti (rispettivamente 1.38/1.40 per EUR/USD). L'oro é stamattina a 1132 USD/l'oncia - la correzione in atto ha il potenziale di far ridiscendere il valore del metallo giallo sotto i 1000 USD. Il trend a lugo termine é però rialzista ed i 1000 USD potrebbero costituire un'interessante livello d'acquisto. Non sembra che la forza del dollaro americano abbia un'influsso diretto sulle borse. Il rialzo della moneta americano prosegue però di pari passo con l'aumento dei tassi d'interesse sulle obbligazioni. Questo trend dovrebbe presto o tardi causare un collasso delle borse. Non abbiamo ancora segnali tecnici in questo senso ma seguiamo da vicino gli sviluppi della situazione.

Passiamo ora ad esaminare la situazione (charts a sei mesi) sui singoli mercati.

L'S&P500 (+0.05% a 1137 punti) ha guadagnato ancora un punto toccando durante la seduta i 1139 punti. Il nostro obiettivo di metà dicembre é quasi stato raggiunto nei tempi previsti: "A questo punto abbiamo l'impressione che nelle prossime settimane un nuovo massimo marginale é possibile (1140-1150 punti)..." Vi ricordiamo però quanto scritto il 28 dicembre: "A medio termine la situazione é più complessa e la difficoltà riscontrata dall'indice a superare i 1120 punti indica distribuzione." Da settimana prossima i rischi verso il basso aumentano. Si profila l'alternativa tra un movimento laterale di tipo distributivo o una correzione.

Il Nasdaq100 (-0.53% a 1878 punti) é stato vittima di prese di beneficio e questa sottoperformance pproccupa. Il trend rialzista é però ancora valido e solo una rottura del supporto a 1820 punti potrebbe metterlo a rischio. Il nostro obittivo é invariato: "Se l'indice riesce ad accelerare al rialzo sembra tecnicamente aver spazio fino ai 1950 punti."

L'Eurostoxx50 (-0.09% a 3009 punti) ha perso ancora un paio di punti ed a questo livello comincia ad essere in difficoltà. L'indice ha lunedì superato di slancio i 3000 punti ma come previsto, una volta raggiunto questo nostro obiettivo, lo slancio verso l'alto si é esaurito. Il trend resta positivo ma non vediamo ulteriore potenziale di rialzo e vi ricordiamo quanto scritto martedì: "A prima vista non vediamo forti resistenze fino ai 3090 punti ma dubitiamo fortemente che questi livelli possano essere prossimamente raggiunti."

Il DAX (+0.04% a 6034 punti) si comporta come l'Eurostoxx50. Manteniamo la valutazione di inizio settimana: "Malgrado che il nostro obiettivo a 6000 punti é stato raggiunto, l'indice resta in un trend rialzista e potrebbe almeno in questa settimana comportarsi bene. Il potenziale di rialzo sembra però limitato. Supporto é sui 5850 punti." Prossima forte resistenza é solo a 6150 punti.

L'SMI (-0.30% a 6559 punti) subisce da alcuni giorni la debolezza di Nestlé e sottoperforma il resto dell'Europa. Fino a quando l'indice resta sopra il supporto a 6500 punti il rialzo é intatto e conoscete gli obiettivi teorici: "La prossima fascia di resistenza si trova solo a 6850-6890 (50% Fibonacci) punti."

Scenario 2010 Per i prossimi mesi prevediamo una sostanziale correzione delle borse dopo il rally di marzo - dicembre 2009. Probabilmento l'S&P500 toccherà nel corso di quest'anno un minimo tra i 740 ed i 820 punti. La performance annuale dovrebbe essere negativa e l'S&P500 dovrebbe terminare il 2010 intorno ai 900 punti. Gli analisti fondamentali stanno continuamente rivedendo le stime degli utili delle società. Ad un certo momento erano scesi fin sotto i 30 USD. Ora che la recessione sembra alle nostre spalle, le stime ufficiali per il 2009 (al 3 novembre 2009) sono risalite a 56.22 USD. Quelle per il 2010 sono addirittura al'incredibile livello di 74.99 USD. Capitalizzando gli utili 2009 con un P/E normale di 15/16 si arriva ad un valore teorico dell'S&P500 di 900 punti. In questi dati é però scontato un recupero marcato dell'economia ed un forte aumento degli utili delle imprese. Ricordiamoci che gli utili operativi 2008 delle società dell'S&P500 sono stati di 15.09 USD. Debitiamo inoltre che i dati relativi al 2010 siano realistici. Di conseguenze stimare ora correttamente gli utili delle società e determinare un giusto rapporto P/E per capitalizzare questo valore é un'impresa ardua. Troppe sono le variabili e le incognite. Se gli utili risalissero solo a 50 USD e la ripresa fosse anemica (come ritiene una buona parte degli economisti), un P/E di 12 sarebbe più adeguato portando il valore teorico dell'S&P500 a 600 USD. Riassumendo, tecnicamente e fondamentalmente i 1115 punti di S&P500 raggiunti a fine 2009 corrispondono secondo noi ad una sopravalutazione del mercato. La prossima dovuta sostanziale correzione ci dirà a quale punto si trova la congiuntura mondiale.

Richiedete informazioni a analisi_tecnica@longshortinvest.com Non rispondiamo a mails anonime.

Bernasconi Consult, gestione patrimoniale e consulenza finanziaria Zollikerstrasse 1, CH-8702 Zollikon Tel. +41 43 499 63 84 EMail: bernasconi@longshortinvest.com http://www.longshortinvest.com/4603.html

Derivati: la Cina apre ai futures

07 gennaio 2010

La Cina sarebbe pronta ad introdurre i contratti futures nel suo sistema finanziario per permettere ai suoi investitori di ammortizzare i rischi connessi alla volatilità dei prezzi

La Cina sarebbe pronta ad introdurre i contratti futures nel suo sistema finanziario per permettere ai suoi investitori di ammortizzare i rischi connessi alla volatilità dei prezzi. Lo ha riferito in questi giorni l’agenzia Bloomberg citando fonti interne alle autorità di Pechino. La notizia confermerebbe così i rumors circolati in questi mesi. Secondo le fonti interpellate, il via libera definitivo dovrebbe arrivare a marzo subito dopo la conclusione del prossimo congresso annuale del Partito Comunista Cinese. L’operazione dovrebbe rappresentare un ulteriore stimolo per un mercato borsistico in grande ripresa. Dopo le difficoltà del 2008 (che hanno caratterizzato, per altro, tutto il mondo) l’indice di riferimento della borsa cinese ha recuperato 80 punti percentuali nell’anno appena concluso.

«Quello cinese è stato fino ad ora un mercato dei capitali ad una sola faccia nel quale gli investitori potevano approfittare solo della risalita dei titoli» ha sottolineato il direttore strategico della società Everbright Securities di Shanghai Teng Yin. Con l’introduzione dei futures, contratti differiti per l’acquisto di beni o titoli ad un prezzo prefissato, gli operatori potranno ottenere importanti rendimenti anche dai ribassi. Una possibilità, quest’ultima, che porta ovviamente con sé elevati rischi speculativi. http://www.valori.it/italian/finanza-globale.php?idnews=1906

“2010: l’anno che vorrei…” – E quello che invece verrà

Thursday, 7 January, 2010

in Articoli, Discussioni, Economia & Mercato, Italia

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di Mario Seminerio – Libertiamo

In quest’anno appena iniziato è verosimile non attendersi cambiamenti epocali, per l’Italia. Siamo all’ennesima ripetizione di schemi e scenari già visti, con marginali variazioni sul tema, negli ultimi tre lustri o giù di lì, dalla morte apparente della cosiddetta Prima Repubblica. Sul piano delle riforme, dopo l’occasione persa nel 2006, quando il referendum confermativo bocciò la riforma del centrodestra, siamo all’eterno ritorno di bicamerali, assemblee costituenti, commissioni e patti assortiti, dove ognuno assegna un significato diverso al termine riforme.

Sepolti da questa cacofonia, abbiamo progressivamente perso la bussola e il senso di quello che una riforma istituzionale dovrebbe compiutamente realizzare, con il concreto rischio che la frustrazione per quelle che sono disomogeneità politiche interne alle coalizioni finiscano col produrre scorciatoie che manderebbero al macero l’equilibrio dei poteri. Anche gli interventi sui quali dovrebbe esistere maggiore convergenza, come la fine del bicameralismo perfetto, restano bloccati nell’attesa della declinazione operativa del federalismo, mentre i costi della politica crescono a ritmi ormai incompatibili non solo e non tanto con la prassi esistente nei paesi con i quali ci confrontiamo, ma con la preservazione dell’essenza stessa della democrazia.

Il paese resta prigioniero di un bipolarismo sgangherato, dove i junior partner di coalizione hanno un fortissimo leverage sui partiti maggiori, grazie alla legge elettorale in vigore ed al fallimento del referendum Segni-Guzzetta, vittima (non casualmente) dei diktat leghisti e di una deliberata campagna di disinformazione. Mentre nel Nord Italia il Pdl ha iniziato la propria ritirata volontaria per dare crescente spazio alla Lega, continua a non emergere un progetto organico per un Paese sempre più nelle mani di cacicchi magniloquenti. In economia, mentre la fase acuta della crisi appare alle spalle, la crescita resta fragile e gli squilibri globali pressoché intatti, primi tra tutti le pratiche perseguite dalle istituzioni finanziarie globali ed il mercantilismo della Cina, che continua a mantenere artificialmente basso il valore dello yuan, in attesa che la transizione dall’export alla domanda interna riesca a porre solide radici nel modello di sviluppo cinese.

Per l’Italia questa crisi rischia di rivelarsi diseducativa perché ha finito con l’alimentare, grazie alla spesso deliberata superficialità di media e commentatori, la narrativa di un modello-Paese vincente, che esce dalla crisi meglio di altri. La realtà ci presenta invece un paese con un rapporto debito-Pil tra i più elevati dell’area Ocse (e cresciuto di quindici punti percentuali in due anni) e bassa produttività totale dei fattori, sulla quale pesano tutti i vincoli ultra-corporativi alla base della nostra non-crescita nell’ultimo quindicennio. Certo, l’Italia non partiva da forti deficit delle partite correnti, né aveva un livello patologico di indebitamento del settore privato. Date le premesse, se avessimo avuto anche quel tipo di squilibri, oggi avremmo già dichiarato bancarotta. Ma tutti gli altri elementi disfunzionali alla crescita sono rimasti, prima fra tutte la sostanziale allergia alla competizione che caratterizza l’azione del legislatore italiano, sotto ogni clima politico. Il paese sta attraversando la crisi in condizioni di assenza di policy, e con interventi al margine che incredibilmente vengono presentati come esemplari: l’immobilismo elevato a sistema, figlio di un corporativismo malato e della crisi fiscale da esso prodotta.

Il paese si muove in circoli viziosi, scambiando la gestione dell’esistente per cambiamento, il declino per riforme. L’inerzia di un sistema politico fintamente nuovista e riformista, tra e dentro i poli, è elevatissima. Per questo c’è motivo per non attendersi cambiamenti strutturali diversi da quelli che potranno essere imposti da traumi esterni. Rischiamo di pagare caro quello che abbiamo casualmente appena superato.

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