Pensare globale

sabato, marzo 06, 2010

posted by Frank Galvagno

Un concetto che forse non è condiviso da tutti è la differenza che esiste tra il potersi permettere l'uso di una risorsa, e l'effettiva correttezza (di medio/lungo termine) nell'usarla. Vediamo alcuni casi-tipo.

Ad esempio: in Italia, se sono un dentista o un notaio potrò permettermi di girare con un SUV dall'ammortamento di 20.000 €/anno. Obiezioni? No, posso permettermelo, se ad esempio guadagno 180.000 €/anno.

Vivo in un paese dove ad oggi la disponibilità di acqua dolce è elevata, e il costo al m3 è basso. Dunque, posso usarne senza preoccuparmi di risparmiarla.

Tornando all'esempio del professionista di reddito elevato: guadagnando molto, potrò permettermi di avere 8 figli (e un pullmino) senza problemi per il loro mantenimento e futuro.

Vivo in una città ricca. Visti i problemi che ci sono nel terzo mondo, posso essere favorevole a un'accoglienza verso un'immigrazione non pianificata, pur di aiutare delle persone in condizioni di bisogno.

In questi esempi, una psicologia morbida e "locale" fa a pugni contro una realtà più dura e "gobale".

Nel caso del ricco professionista, possiamo dire che il mantenimento energetico del suo mezzo di trasporto equivale al non-possedimento di una piccola utilitaria da parte di circa 4 famiglie. Allo stesso modo, ogni figlio che nasce in un certo contesto sociale "eredita" dal sistema il fabbisogno energetico che gli è "dovuto", caricando il sistema di un certo impatto. Stesso discorso in termini di impatto ce l'ha qualunque migrante che passa da una zona di sussistenza a una realtà industrializzata.

Ma allora, qual è il problema? Qual è la soluzione? La realtà, essendo complessa, si compone di contesti e di azioni, più che di semplicistici problemi-soluzioni. E' sbagliato che ci siano persone che guadagnano 20 volte quello che percepiscono altri, che magari lavorano 3 volte di più in termini di tempo e di fatica; è sbagliato caricare i sistemi solo sulla base di considerazioni economiche o di spinte emotive.

Le giuste azioni locali dovrebbero discendere innanzitutto da un'approfondita conoscenza della realtà globale. Senza assolutismi e imposizioni, ma sulla base di una diffusa razionalità.

http://aspoitalia.blogspot.com/2010/03/pensare-globale.html#links

Fears of A Second Financial Crash Are Real

Congress Lacks “Appetite” for Action

by Danny Schechter

What will it take? What are they waiting for? What part of the reality of a systemic crisis that will get worse don’t they get?

How is it possible that after near three years of economic turmoil, with possibly hundreds of TRILLIONs down the rabbit hole—not that anyone is counting or apparently can count—that the geniuses who run our economy still don’t “get” that the sh*t has already hit the fan? How many more jobs and homes have to be lost?

Michael Moore is not the only one predicting a second crash. Paul Krugman is all out words excoriating the Administration for its tepidness. Nouriel Roubini, who forecast the first meltdown, now says we are in serious danger of a “double-dip,” a lethal combo of rising inflation and deeper recession.

Woe to us if we can’t see the handwriting on so many walls.

The people in the know know that nothing has been fixed, know that all the stimuli have barely stimulated, that the new jobs bill will never generate the number of jobs that are needed, and that the banks have obscenely been raking in oodles of money thanks to all the financing taxpayers pumped into their coffers.

Even as the Obamaites finally get around to proposing a measure to break up the big banks and erode the notion of financial institutions being too big to fail, we have the New York Times telling us that Congress does not have the “appetite”—that’s the word they use—to tackle even modest financial reforms.

The “appetite” is missing. In the real world of appetites, food companies are recalling unsafe products every day because the food we eat is subjected to federal inspections. Not so for financial products.

The reason? Politics of course, but also the jillions that the financial services industry has “invested” in bill killing, compromise-making, and just plain corrupting the legislative process.

This past week, the Roosevelt Institute sponsored a conference over at the Time Warner Center called Make Markets Be Markets (Makemarketsbemarkets.org) , published a book of essays and heard from a who’s who in the world of influential economists and analysts who gave high powered presentations, one after another, each more lucid than the next.

There was enough brainpower in the room to save the economy but, alas, no one seems to be listening. Some business media was there collecting sound bites but the urgency of the warnings did not transcend the limits of the bubble of financial journalism.

For a long time, I wined about being ignored in not getting heard on the economic collapse, which of course, I am, but here were people with Nobel Prizes and PhDs and track records of making millions also being dissed and pissed.

Setting the stage was Joe Stiglitz who won a Nobel Prize for his work, and who left the World Bank with disgust over what they do. Stiglitz should be in Obama’s cabinet. Instead he is one of its critics.

The presentations started off with Simon Johnson, the former chief economist the IMF taking about the DOOM CYCLE—how we are just going around in cycles without really addressing the system nature of the crisis. He writes in the NY Times and on BaselineScenario.com which you should read every day. He calls the cycle “unsustainable and crazy” and says that “the destructive power of the down-cycle will overwhelm the restorative ability of government like it did in 1929-31.”

Translation: Here we go again.

And then there was the super-articulate Raj Date who says we have to get rid of Frannie Mae and Freddy Mac before they get rid of our housing market. His analysis was detailed and textured. His conclusion simple: “they must be eliminated.” What is the Obama Administration doing about this? Nada.

It got better when the only woman on the panel, Harvard’s Elizabeth Warren mesmerized the room. She has become a TV fixture because of how charming, honest and forthright she has been in defending consumers from the rip offs that we are all menaced by. She is the chairperson of the House oversight committee on TARP and a leading advocate of an independent consumer protection agency. She is now watching as Senator Dodd and some of his GOP cronies try to bury it in the Federal Reserve Bank, a move that many of the conference criticized in light of the Fed’s history of doing so little to protect the rights of consumers.

After all the speakers presented their arguments, there were comments by George Soros, who also criticized the economics profession for missing the crisis, and businessman Jim Chanos who finally brought the discussion around to the presence of massive fraud and criminality in our financial markets. I spoke to that issue which I have just written a book on and made a film about when I got a chance to ask a question.

All too quietly, Wall Street firms are being sued for their many transgressions. A study by Gary Null found that over $430 billion has been paid to victimized parties by Wall Street firms in over 1500 cases.

Some examples:

* Bank of America has spent $14.9 billion to settle 15 cases alleging various charges such as securities violations and mismanagement;

* Citigroup has spent over $13.9 billion to settle 12 cases alleging various charges including abusive lending practices and involvement in fraudulent activities;

* Merrill Lynch has spent $12.2 billion to settle cases involving various allegations including negligence and mismanagement of funds;

* Morgan Stanley has spent over $5 billion to settle 11 cases involving various allegations including failure to disclose material information to customers;

* Wachovia has spent over $9.5 billion to resolve allegations including misleading investors and conflicts of interest;

UBS has spent $19.5 billion to settle 6 cases with various charges including misleading investors.

So much information is now out there but to what effect? What more do we need to know?

There is a time for research and a time for advocacy, a time to try to lobby in the suites and a time for marching in the streets. Students on US campuses and workers in Greece have been battling the effects of the crisis.

It is now time to go after the causes.

The public is open to acting. The most recent Zogby poll reports:

“# 32% of U.S. adults say they have "considered moving some or all of (their) banking from a large national bank to a community bank or credit union because (they) are unhappy with the policies or behavior of large national banks."

# 14% have moved some of their banking in the past year from a large national bank to a community bank or credit union.

# 9% of all U.S. adults have moved some of their business from large national banks as a protest.

People are pissed, far angrier than the media lets on. The lines are being drawn. That hard rain is going to fall.

News Dissector Danny Schechter is a blogger, author and filmmaker. His latest work is Plunder The Crime of Our Time on the financial crisis as a crime story (Punderthecrimeofourtime.com) Comments to dissector@mediachannel.org

Danny Schechter is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Danny Schechter

The Core Rate of Unemployment is Horse Crap

Paul Mladjenovic

Today the federal government released its unemployment report for February 2010. The official unemployment rate held steady at 9.7%. Some economists welcomed this as a sign of a stabilizing economy. Perhaps someone should tell these economists that the official unemployment rate is misleading. It is a sign of horse crap. Why?

The official unemployment rate LEAVES OUT those folks that are discouraged and have ceased looking for work. It also leaves out those that are "under-employed"; those that no longer have full-time jobs but have settled for part-time work. In other words, the official unemployment rate...

leaves out...A LOT OF UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE!

The moment an unemployed person drops out of the job search process because they are discouraged and have ceased looking, they are no longer officially counted as unemployed. They end up in a more obscure (but more accurate) statistic referred to as the "U-6" unemployment rate. In the same report, this down-played rate is over 16%!

Some of you may remember an essay I did a few years ago where I criticized the "core rate of inflation" which was an official government statistic which tracked inflation but totally left out "food and energy" from its calculation. Some humorously jabbed the core rate of inflation and described it as "the rate of inflation...excluding inflation".

The statistical wizards at the federal government have done to unemployment reporting what they did to inflation reporting. It is time for some observers to call the official unemployment what it should be called: "the core rate of unemployment". That way the satiric observers among us can describe the official unemployment rate as "the rate of unemployment excluding unemployment".

Personal strategy:

Unemployed or not, I think that everyone should their God-given talents and abilities to start their own business. It could be home-based and done in your spare time. Don’t just diversify your investment portfolio, diversify your time and effort with active strategies for earning money. Take a look at the audio seminar Home Business Goldmine which you can download instantly at www.SuperMoneyLinks.com.

If you have lost your job or you worry about your current job, you have the ability to generate income. A part-time home business is a great way to start. I am in the process of creating both free and low-cost resources to help folks earn money so feel free to stay informed with my developments at www.twitter.com/paulmlad.

Copyright © 2010 Paul Mladjenovic

Paul Mladjenovic, CFP is the author of Stock Investing for Dummies and his national investing & financial seminars are at www.ProsperityNetwork.net. His blog is at www.Mladjenovic.blogspot.com and he is the editor of the Prosperity Alert newsletter.

Paul Mladjenovic | Email

www.FinancialVortex.com

Protecting Profits from The Apparent Recovery

DeepCaster LLC

"Senators Outline Plan to Create New Consumer-Protection Unit Within The Fed."

"Deal Near on Banking Rules" Wall Street Journal, 3/2/10

"As Rolfe Winkler noted last September:

For the big have gotten even bigger since the start of the financial crisis. At the end of 2007, the Big Four banks - Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo - held 32 percent of all deposits in FDIC-insured institutions. As of June 30th, it was 39 percent.

But Simon Johnson gives an even broader perspective on how big the too big to fails have gotten:

The big four have half of the market for mortgages and two-thirds of the market for credit cards. Five banks have over 95 percent of the market for over-the-counter derivatives. Three U.S. banks have over 40 percent of the global market for stock underwriting.

…the government created the mega-giants (they are not the product of free market competition), and their very size destroys the real economy like a massive black hole destroys the matter around it.

And as Johnson and many others have pointed out, the very size of the giant banks enables them to easily capture politicians…"

"15 Years Ago, the Combined Assets of the 6 Biggest Banks Totaled 17% of GDP... Now, 63%" George Washington, zerohedge.com, 3/2/10

Isn't the Regulatory 'Reform' legislation generated in Congress just dandy!?!

It appears the private for-profit Fed may now be given even more power to "protect" Consumers, yet Congress has so watered down the 'Audit the Fed' bill that no meaningful audit will be performed.

We ask, will the private for-profit Fed "protect" consumers as well as it did in the first decade of the 21st Century when millions of investors around the world lost huge chunks of their savings, and/or their homes and/or their jobs largely as a result of the easy credit, easy money policies of The Fed?

Will it protect them from the depredations of the ever-larger too-big-to fail Mega-banks which, after they were saved with Taxpayer money, pay rich compensation to executives while raising credit card rates to ever more usurious levels. And which of these Mega-banks are themselves shareholders of the private for-profit Fed? We shall never know for sure until there is an Authentic Audit.

Or will it protect the economy and Financial System for Investors/Consumers benefit as "well" as it has done in recent years done? Sarcasm intended. Just consider the Real Economic and Financial Fundamentals as set forth in a recent economic report by shadowstats.com.

It Is Not Over

Underlying economic and financial fundamentals signal and suggest ongoing economic contraction and continued financial system instability. Despite the relatively happy talk out of the Fed in the last several weeks as to systemic stability…Consider the latest surge in the monetary base…

…the St. Louis Fed's Adjusted Monetary… base surged by $90 billion dollars (an annualized 198% pace of increase) in the two weeks ended February 24th, to a record $2.184 trillion…

The monetary base - currency in circulation plus bank reserves - is the Fed's primary tool for adjusting broad systemic liquidity, as measured by the money supply. Yet, the SGS Ongoing M3 Estimate - M3 once was the Fed's broadest money measure - still is on track for a deepening annual contraction in February 2010. Since November 2009, annual real M3 (net of CPI-U inflation) has been in a deepening contraction, signaling an intensifying economic downturn in the months ahead…

As a result, economic reporting increasingly will surprise the markets to the downside...

…the best picture from the better quality series is one of ongoing bottom-bouncing. Consumers account for more than 70% of GDP, yet growth in personal consumption cannot be sustained without growth in inflation-adjusted income…but consumer credit is contracting, and actual, disposable consumer income is not keeping up with inflation. This is a long-term structural problem, and, until it is addressed, there can be no economic recovery.

…Six-percent growth is considered an outright economic boom, but few believe the current economy is booming, despite the revised report of official 5.9% annualized growth in the fourth-quarter GDP… most of the reported growth was due to relatively stronger nonfarm inventories, yet the inventory improvement is not supported by strong orders. When consumption fails to support production and inventories build-up, manufacturers tend to cut back production, and GDP falls. While I do not find the reported current quarterly gain credible, it is in place, and it sets up renewed quarterly contractions beginning as early the current quarter. Such would be viewed popularly as a double-dip recession.

Consensus economists, Wall Street and political Washington nonetheless continue touting the end of the recession. Yet, the longest and deepest economic downturn since the first downleg of the Great Depression still has some time to run…the current downturn already is the second-dip of a multiple-dip depression than began in late-2000…

…GDP is the GNP net of trade in factor income (interest and dividend payments). GNP growth usually is weaker than GDP growth for net-debtor nations…

GDP… by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed an annualized real growth rate of 5.93%...

The aggregate revision was little more than statistical noise, with the upside revision reflected fully in a downside revision to GDP inflation…

The GDP series remains largely worthless in its early reporting and heavily gimmicked in both short- and long-term reporting…

The SGS Alternate-GDP estimate for fourth-quarter 2009 remains an annual contraction of 4.6% versus the official estimate of a 0.1% gain…

Employment/Unemployment (February 2010). The February employment and unemployment estimates are scheduled for release on Friday, March 5th. Briefing.com reports consensus estimates of the unemployment rate rising to 9.8% in February from 9.7% in January, with payroll employment expected to lose 20,000 jobs for a second month. I would expect both a higher unemployment rate and deeper payroll decline than the consensus forecasts, given among other issues catch-up in bad seasonal factors and renewed slowing in the general economy. An updated outlook on the employment/unemployment report will be published next week as detail from related series becomes available."

"69% of 4th-Quarter's 5.9% 'Boom' Due to Nonfarm Inventories Economic and Financial Crises Are Not Over Fed Still Panicking Despite Happy Talk" - Commentary Number 281General Update, GDP, Durable Goods John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics, 2/26/10

Shadowstats.com calculates key statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest.

Consider the following Official versus Real Numbers

Official Numbers	vs.	Real Numbers
Annual Consumer Price Inflation		reported February 19, 2010
2.63%		9.76% (annualized February Rate)
U.S. Unemployment		reported March 5, 2010
9.7%		21.6%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline		reported February 26, 2010
0.15%		-4.62%

The foregoing provides considerable evidence that the structural changes necessary for long term-economic health have not been made. And it provides evidence that the ongoing "Recovery", as the MSM dubs, it is merely a 'Sugar High', destined to end painfully.

So how does one surmount and profit in spite of, the ever increasing litany of Perils – prospective sovereign debt defaults, fiat currencies with ever-decreasing purchasing power, increasing Real unemployment, dangerously high consumer price inflation (albeit long hidden by Bogus Official Statistics) an economy with plummeting GDP, among many others?

There is one Salvation, the Ultimate Safe Haven from Inflation, Deflation and Economic Stagnation – Gold and Silver.

Indeed, we advise purchasing Gold and Silver as the best way to Protect Profits from the Apparent (i.e. Fake) Recovery, but with one Important Caveat.

The Caveat is that Gold and Silver prices have for years been suppressed by a Fed-led Cartel* of Central Bankers, and their Allies and Agents.

*We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster's December, 2009, Special Alert containing a summary overview of Intervention entitled "Forecasts and December, 2009 Special Alert: Profiting From The Cartel's Dark Interventions - III" and Deepcaster's July, 2009 Letter entitled "A Strategy For Profiting From The Cartel's Dark Interventions & Evolving Techniques - II" in the 'Alerts Cache' and 'Latest Letter' Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org for information on precious metals price manipulation. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster's profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these "Interventionals." Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster's recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

The Cartel's Motivation for this Price Suppression is clear.

It is to prevent Gold and Silver from being more widely recognized as the legitimate Ultimate Stores and Measures of Value, a recognition which would further delegitimize The Cartel's Treasury Securities and Fiat currencies as such.

It is essential therefore to acquire Gold and Silver according to a Strategy designed to counter the effects of Cartel Precious Metal price suppression and to profit in spite of it. Deepcaster has developed the following Strategy.

The Solution – A Strategy for Investors & Traders

The Solution is to invest in Gold and Silver (and in Strategic Hard Assets in general) according to the following Strategy designed to diminish the effects of adverse Cartel actions.

A major premise of The Strategy is that one can certainly remain a Hard Assets Partisan while at the same time insulating oneself from future Cartel Takedowns. The following points provide an outline of The Strategy (particularly as applied to the Gold and Silver Markets) and are designed to help avoid such unpleasantness, or even possible financial ruin, in the future, as well as to profit along the way:

1. Recognize that The Cartel is still Potent, as difficult as that may be psychologically for Deepcaster and other Hard Asset Partisans to acknowledge (the $50 Takedowns of the Gold Price in the first week of December, 2009 and February, 2010 are a case in Point). The Cartel is still the Biggest Player in many markets and, if the timing and market context are propitious, the Biggest Player makes Market Price. In addition, The Cartel has the advantage of de facto controlling the structure and regulation of various marketplaces and that is a tremendous advantage; just as the Hunt Brothers years ago discovered much to their dismay and misfortune, when they tried to corner the Silver Market.
2. Accumulate Hard Assets near the Interim Bottoms of Cartel- induced Takedowns.
3. In order to know when one is near the bottom of a Cartel-generated takedown, it is essential to take account of the Interventionals as well as the Technicals and Fundamentals. (see note above for details)
4. For example, regarding Gold & Silver, near such Interim Bottoms, accumulate a combination of the Physical Commodity (Deepcaster prefers "low premium to melt" bullion coins) and well-managed Juniors with large reserves.
5. Then, to the extent one wishes to speculate on the next "long" move, one should buy the major producers or long-term options on them. These latter positions are for ultimate liquidation at the next Interim Top and are not for holding for the long-term.
6. Indeed, there will be a time when The Cartel price capping is ineffective and Gold & Silver make record moves upward. The benefit of this Strategy is that one will likely be long in one's speculative positions when this happens.
7. Near the next Interim Top, liquidate the long options and majors. Again, in order to know when we are close to the next Interim Top, it is essential to monitor the Interventionals, as well as Fundamentals and Technicals.
8. At that Top, sell short or buy puts on Majors. We re-emphasize the Majors as preferred vehicles for trading positions because such positions are more liquid and tend to be quite responsive to Cartel moves.
9. At the next Interim Bottom, cover your shorts and liquidate your puts and go long again to begin the process all over again. We emphasize that it is essential to consider the Interventionals as well as the Fundamentals and Technicals in order to determine the approximate Interim Tops and Bottoms.
10. Be just as willing to go short as to go long, and even using leveraged funds.
11. Finally, Hard Assets Partisans have the opportunity to become involved in Political Action to diminish the power of the Central Banker Cartel. It is truly outrageous that the average unsuspecting citizen, and prospective retiree, can and does put his hard won assets in Tangible Assets only to have those assets effectively de-valued by Cartel Takedowns and the de facto Stealth Tax imposed via Fiat Currency Purchasing Power degradation. This is extremely injurious to many average citizens in many countries who are saving for the rainy day or retirement and have their retirement and/or reserves effectively taken from them. In order to help prevent this and similar outrages, we recommend taking three steps:
    1. Become involved in the movement to abolish the U.S. Federal Reserve (a private for-profit Cartel of International Banks) as Deepcaster, Presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, and legendary investor Jim Rogers, all have advocated. The non-profit group Carrying Capacity Network (www.carryingcapacity.org) advocates abolishing The Fed after auditing it.
    2. Join the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee which works to eliminate the manipulation of the Gold and Silver markets (www.gata.org). GATA is a non-profit organization which makes a great contribution by gathering evidence regarding the suppression of prices of Gold, Silver and other commodities.
    3. Work to defeat The Cartel 'End Game.' Deepcaster has laid out the evidence regarding the Ominous Cartel "End Game." Clearly The Cartel is pushing ever greater debts on Taxpayers and is sacrificing the U.S. Dollar to prop up international financial institutions and to maintain and enhance its Power and Profit. But this sacrifice cannot continue forever.

And one other essential recommendation – the first sensible structural change recommendation to emanate from a Fed source (Fed. Governor Fisher) in many a moon.

"'The disagreeable but sound thing to do regarding institutions that are too big to fail is to dismantle them over time into institutions that can be prudently managed and regulated across borders,' Fisher said in prepared remarks to the Council on Foreign Relations." (emphasis added)

Fed's Fisher:

"Break Up Banks Seen as Too Large to Fail" - Moneynews.com, 3/3/10

But, alas, no meaningful steps have been taken to begin such dismantling.

Therefore, Batten down the Hatches!

Copyright © 2010 DeepCaster LLC

DEEPCASTER FORTRESS ASSETS LETTER Wealth Preservation, Wealth Enhancement, & Financial and Geopolitical Intelligence. Gravitas, Pietas, Virtus

DeepCaster LLC USA | Email

www.deepcaster.com

Silver is the best investment in the world

Roger Mason

(Editor's Note: Here is an enlightening rant from a web site called economicrant.com. Mr. Mason's message is "terse but true", and is more than worthy of your consideration. - JSB)

One cannot pick tops and bottoms and short term forecasting is for fools. Nevertheless, one has to do their best to see overall bottoms and tops. We feel silver has bottomed at the $16 level and it's time to back up the truck. It just does not matter if you buy silver at $14, $16, or even $18 when it goes to $200 and keeps going. Silver is the best investment in the world. Buy bullion and store it yourself. Do NOT buy paper silver of any kind, or let anyone store it for you. Why aren't we recommending silver stocks anymore? They are a fantastic bargain, and the HUI is currently only about 400.

1) In a Marxist society like ours paper assets are more and more risky, especially for taxation.

2) The stock market is going to fall, and silver and gold stocks may well fall with it.

Buy silver bullion

George Soros is a Zionist One Worlder, but he is not senile like Warren Buffett. George told the world gold was a huge bubble to keep others from buying any. Meanwhile he bought up $600 million dollars worth. Why didn't George buy silver? Lots of reasons. There isn't that much silver available for sale. Any large sales would make the price rise dramatically. Silver is a very tiny market folks, and this is one reason it is going to go ballistic. Where are you going to safely store hundreds of tons of silver? He can store that gold in small tool shed, but it would be next to impossible to store hundreds of tons of silver. BACK UP THE TRUCK AND BUY SILVER. This is it; no more waiting. Buy all you can. If the price falls a little so what? This is the time.

We are holding our silver stocks. When the stock market starts to collapse it may be a very good idea to dump all your silver stocks. They may well crash with the market as people scramble to liquidate and get cash (Monopoly money). If you want to hold stocks you can buy them back at a lower level. If the HUI falls below, say, 380 just dump them.

We are going to attack Iran. This will be the worst mistake we have ever made. The Mideast is none of our business. The business of America is protecting America, not any other country. General Makarov is the head of the Russian chief of staff. He said the U.S. is going to attack Iran, and referred to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral McMullens statements. Makarov did not say what the Russian response would be to this attack. Both Russia and China has extensive investments in Iran and are not going to tolerate any U.S. interference. On 14 February 2010 Admiral Michael Mullen attended a press conference after his arrival in Israel and made it clear that all options are on the table. "We would operate all our forces for Israel". He then said,"Politically, it is prohibited in any way that Iran will have nuclear weapons". Right now, diplomatic efforts continue," he explained, but did not rule out military option, "The option to attack Iran is still on the table, but we're not there yet. It is very difficult to expect the pace of the Iranian government, I am very concerned with their use of rhetoric and their uranium enrichment program. Iran undermines the stability of the region – also in Yemen and Afghanistan. The U.S. government has very serious intentions to impose harsh sanctions and I very much hope that it will end the conflict." McMullen also noted that according to the American assessment Iran could obtain a nuclear bomb from one year to three years. That is an outright lie. However, he stressed that, "conflict with Iran would be a big problem for everyone. I worry about the unintended consequences of an attack. While every situation has limits, we're not there yet. The diplomatic efforts must be exhausted until the end." He continually referred to Israel's security and made it clear that the U.S. stands behind it. "Israel supports the policy that Obama leads. The Chief of the General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi made this clear to me in a meeting a few weeks ago. That does not mean we are not worried. " We have appreciation for Israel and we can take care of its security." Additionally Admiral McMullen stressed that between Israel and the U.S. there is real cooperation. "This important relationship with Israel grows stronger every day," he said. "We are close partners, since the establishment of the state. I am aware of the needs of Israel in every step. I'm here to understand the perspective of those who live here. I worry about the stability and the possibility for instability in the region. We will operate all our forces to have a stable and secure Israel and for the people of Israel." One would think McMullen was an Israeli admiral instead of an American one.

Syrian tanks are already in Lebanon to protect them from an Israeli invasion. This is none of our business. The Mideast is none of our business. Israel is none of our business. The business of America is Americans. This country was founded on the principle of laize faire or mind your own business, not the business of others. We have no business in the Mideast. We have no business protecting any other country on earth. We have no business sending American soldiers to find someone else's war.

Senile in Omaha Buffett is still hemorrhaging. His famous "legendary" Berkshire Hathaway stock just gets worse and worse. He just bought Walmart (WMT). Walmart was $60 just 18 months ago and is now jus $53. Adjusted for 18 months of inflation it is much worse. He just bought Iron Mountain (IRM). Iron Mountain was $37 just 30 months ago and is now just $23 adjusted for inflation it is much worse. He calls bad stocks "bargains". Warren wants you to invest your life savings in the stock market and go broke. He tells you silver and gold are bad investments and sold his silver years ago. He's nothing but a government whore, puppet, stooge, shill, disinformation agent. Why did he sell his soul to the government? Another One Worlder socialist. His Berkshire Hathaway stock was $140,000 just two years ago, but is only $144,000 now. Adjusted for Inflation it is much worse. It would have to be $160,000 now just to break even and make no profit whatsoever. That is with the false 10% inflation the government and media tell you. If he can't make money, why is he telling you how to make money? Buffett is nothing but a senile old fart shilling for the government. He is a hardcore socialist and very happy with the Obama Agenda. He has publicly stated he has no use for the entire Tea Party Movement, he feels Social Insecurity is one of the "most important" programs America has. He recommends stocks as the "best investment for the long run". He thinks Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal was the best thing that ever happened to America. Folks, Buffett is a turd. His own stock is in the pits. His famed Berkshire Hathaway stock says it all. His stock picks are pitiful and you could literally do better throwing darts. Do exactly the opposite of what Senile in Omaha recommends. Do exactly the opposite of what CNBC recommends. Do exactly the opposite of what you hear in the newspapers, radio, TV and magazines. Do exactly the opposite of what Stupid Money Cramer tells you to do.

The housing collapse is going to get much worse folks. This includes commercial real estate as well. Notice how every week businesses in your town close down, and more empty stores are for rent? The median American home will sell for $120, 000 or less in the next three years. You will be able to buy the median home for only 600 ounces of silver. Yes, only 600 ounces of silver will buy the average American home in 2013 as home prices collapse and silver goes to $200 and higher. Probably a lot higher. It's hard enough to get people to understand it will go to $200. In 1982 silver sold for $50 an ounce when there was an abundance of silver in the world. Adjusted for inflation, that would be about $120 today. We're almost completely and totally out of silver. We cannot begin to possibly mine enough to keep up with demand. Buy silver bullion, rather than stocks, and keep it yourself. Hide it creatively.

Silver is four times better than gold, and will return to the traditional 15:1 ratio as it always does and always has. That would be $200 silver and $3,000 gold for example.

Sell your IRA or 401k before the government takes it over by force and converts it into a worthless "annuity" based on totally worthless treasury paper. Sell your IRA or 401k and buy silver bullion. The Federal Reserve (which isn't Federal and has no reserves) is printing Monopoly money 24/7. Hyperinflation will ruin the economy and destroy your life savings. Ft. Knox has been empty for decades and no audit has been done in over 40 years.

Please look at the above chart. This is absolute proof the Much Greater Depression has already started. Americans are up to their ears in debt, they're drowning in debt. We are so over our heads only a massive economic depression can result from it. Even just 30 years ago we saved money and invested it instead of living over our heads. Household debt has gone from almost zero to ONE THIRD of our Gross Domestic Product output. You cannot live over your head for very long. The chickens always come home to roost. Reality always wins in the end. This country is ending in the Much Greater Depression.

A little child knows you cannot spend your way out of debt. You cannot spend your way into prosperity. Obama and the gang keep telling us their Stimulus Program will spend our way into recovery and prosperity. They tell us the government is "creating 2 million jobs". You cannot spend your way into prosperity. The government cannot create one real job. The less government jobs the better. Impoverished countries like Brazil always have a high percent of government jobs. Only the free market can create jobs. Only freedom can create jobs. Obama's 3.8 trillion dollar budget is purposely meant to destroy this country. Remember the entire GNP of America is only $12 trillion, so a $3.8 trillion budget is totally and completely insane. The Obama gang is purposely destroying this country so they can institute Marxism. They are not stupid- they are EVIL. They know very well what they are doing. They want outright Marxism, and not just European style socialism. They purposely destroy freedom like all Marxist countries do. They want poverty so they can rule effectively. Always remember it is very easy to rule poor people, but not affluent people. This is why dictators like Fidel Castro and Kim Il Jong purposely keep the Cubans and North Koreans poor so they can control them.

The whole Tea Party movement has been ruined by the pseudo conservatives. Yes, Ron Paul was elected by the CPAC meeting, but the Romney supporters actually booed him! That's right they booed loudly when Ron Paul won the nomination. Mitt Romney is a real piece of neocon fecal matter and not a patriot in any way. He fully supports our wars of aggression in the Mideast just like Sarah Palin (who came in third) does. One of the featured speakers was Joseph Farah, the editor of the disinformation rag World Net Daily. Do not donate to this and do not attend. This is NOT the real Tea Party of a year ago. Do not donate to the "Mt. Vernon Statement" group and other pseudo-conservatives. This abomination is headed by Ed Meese for God's sake!

Here's proof commercial real estate is completely hopeless. This started in 2007 two years later than the start of the residential crash. Both have years to go and can only end in complete economic disaster. Don't kid yourself about "recoveries" of any kind.

Want more absolute inarguable proof the Much Greater Depression has already started and it unavoidable? There are 605 trillion in derivatives in the world. Yes, that number is incomprehensible. The entire GNP of America is only $12 trillion. That is a mere 2.3% of the derivatives. The entire World Bank reserves would only cover 1.2% of that. We can't even accurately define what a derivative is, but you can rest assured it is basically a scam. These $605 trillion worth of derivatives are coming unraveled as you read this. This will end in financial disaster for the entire world. All debts get paid. Please remember that. All debts get paid by either by buyer or the lender. Always. These derivative losses will be paid with a worldwide depression.

You may not have realized that the Patriot Act was temporary. Well the House just overwhelmingly extended it by a vote of 315 to 97 (20 abstaining). That means the police state continues, the Constitution and Bill of Rights is a joke, and it just gets worse from here. We will get National Health Care, Stimulus Packages, Cap and Trade, and God only knows what other Marxist welfare redistribution programs with more and more loss of freedom. Don't even think there is any hope. Hope is for dopes and the last refuge of fools anyway.

You see those morons with the Support Our Troops ribbons on their cars. The way to support our troops is to bring them home. Bring them home today! We have no business in the Mideast or anywhere else. We should close every offshore military base and bring every single soldier home. We have lost over 5,000 Americans to these evil, illegal, and immoral wars in the Mideast. Over 6,000 have committed suicide. Countless American soldiers are disabled, injured and especially psychologically and emotionally ruined. It is estimated that half of homeless men are war veterans who can no longer cope with life. If you want to really support our troops then bring them home where they belong.

Here's the proof folks. The media keeps telling you inflation is "only" 10%. Well, this is the deposit currency chart of the Fed Banks. In late 2008 inflation took off for the moon and is still going to the Moon. We have continually printed other charts to prove this. Hyperinflation is your future, serious Weimar-style and Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation. Only silver and gold will protect you from this, and silver is four times better than gold.

BACK UP THE TRUCK AND BUY SILVER BULLION

Keep it yourself and hide it creatively even if you live in an apartment. Bury it and plant a garden over it, or put a concrete patio over it.

www.economicrant.com

A Storm Is Brewing

John Townsend

When the tech bubble burst in 2000, Greenspan tried to "fix" the problem by cutting rates and printing money. Fix the problem he did ... well sort of! What Greenspan did was create two new bubbles in the credit and real estate markets to replace the tech bubble that had burst. Millions of jobs were created in these two industries. Much needed jobs to replace the ones lost as the tech boom came to an end.

I think we will all admit it was one heck of a party, but like all good parties there's a price to pay. The Hangover!

The truth is the economic boom of the mid 2000's was built on a lie. Instead of a foundation of productivity the last bull market was founded on an ocean of liquidity. That ocean of liquidity fostered risky investments and massive speculation. It was only a matter of time before the house of cards came crashing down. And crash it did. The world suffered through the second worst bear market in history almost taking down the global financial system in the process.

Apparently the powers that be have learned nothing from this near death experience because they are back at it again, printing, printing, printing in another vain effort to create prosperity with the printing press. I dare say the average 6th grader can understand that the act of putting ink on paper does not create wealth. It's too bad our elected officials can't understand this.

So here we are, we've survived the credit crisis and all appears to be well in the world. I'm here to say that all is not well. We now have a cancer growing under the surface of the economy many times bigger than the one Greenspan created. This cancer isn't going to show up in real estate or credit markets, that bubble has already burst, never to be inflated again. No, this time I expect the cancer is going to flare up as inflation in the commodity markets.

Witness the strange resilience of oil at $80 despite a very strong dollar the past 3 months. Gold has been holding over $1100. Sugar is at multi-year highs. Copper is less than 15% from all-time highs.

The commodity markets are now poised to unleash a massive inflationary storm. I think there's a very good chance that storm will strike this spring.

The dollar is now deep into a counter trend rally and in jeopardy of putting in an intermediate term top at any time. When it does the flood gates could break and we will have to deal with the unintended consequences of Bernanke's actions.

Unfortunately, there are no painless cures for spiking inflation, especially in an ongoing recession. The cure is to let the market clean out the excesses. The cure is to raise rates and drain liquidity, to induce a recession. That course leads to 20%+ unemployment and a deflationary depression. Does anyone really believe our elected officials will choose the that course of action?

On the other hand, doing nothing leads to higher and higher inflation and running the presses faster and faster to stay ahead of rising prices, eventually culminating in a hyperinflationary event if government debt is allowed to spiral beyond the point of no return.

Unfortunately, I think it's probably too late to stop the storm. Let's face it, you don't start turning the Titanic when it's 100 yards from the iceberg. By then it's too late and the ship is doomed.

The same principle applies with our economy. If the Fed waits until inflation starts to pop up it is too late. The damage is already done and there's no going back. If the inflation Genie gets out of the bottle there's no easy way to get him back in. I would argue that the commodity markets are already trying to tell us there's trouble coming.

History has been crystal clear - every time oil spikes 100% or more within a year's time, it has pushed the our economy into a recession. We already have a spike from $32 to over $80 and this is against a backdrop of high unemployment. The last thing we need in an economic environment that's already under stress is surging energy prices again.

The question investors have to ask themselves is whether it's more likely the powers that be will do the right thing, raise rates, drain liquidity and force the world into a deeper recession before inflation gets out of control or will they continue to kick the can down the road making the problem bigger and bigger?

Knowing human nature, my bet is that our elected officials will do whatever they have to do to avoid short term pain - even if it means compromising our future.

The storm is brewing. It's time to batten down the hatches.

That means gold and silver!

© 2010 John Townsend

http://www.garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/

Lies Told to Children

J. R. Nyquist

Consider two cases of mass manipulation through a big lie: the first is directed against children, and has to do with Santa Claus; the second is directed against adults, and has to do with government programs and goodies. In the first case adults engage in a conspiracy to inculcate in children a belief in Saint Nicholas; in the second case, a certain party of propagandists engage in a conspiracy to inculcate a general belief in government entitlements. In the first case, a good outcome depends on whether a child is naughty or nice; in the second case, a good outcome depends on whether the public will vote for measures that promise to bankrupt the country, creating yet another department of government elves and overseers.

Lying to children is part of the process of coddling and protecting them. Not surprisingly, lies told to adults also involve coddling. Those who believe that adult citizens cannot possibly take responsibility for their own children (education) or health (socialized medicine) or elderly parents (social security), would pass the responsibility along to government. The result, of course, is a cancerous culture of entitlement in which people accept less and less responsibility, as government accepts an ever greater share.

"One of the most remarkable things about the way we lie to kids is how broad the conspiracy is," wrote Paul Graham in a May 2008 essay. "The conspiracy is so thorough that most kids who discover it do so only by discovering internal contradictions in what they're told. It can be traumatic for the ones who wake up during the operation." A similar comment can be offered in the case of government entitlements. The conspiracy to increase them is remarkably broad, and discoverable through the apprehension of internal contradictions. What sounds good at first hearing, turns out to be tremendously expensive - perhaps even unsupportable - years down the road. Budget-busting proposals are advanced under the heading, "We owe it to ourselves."

Lies have always been told to children, and to adults, but in pre-industrial times children were well aware of adult superiority in skill and knowledge, and viewed themselves "juniors" in the true sense. Today, however, children absorb adult lies within an artificial protected environment. Here Graham says something of special interest: "Children of kings and great magnates were the first to grow up out of touch with the world. Suburbia means half the population can live like kings in that respect." Yet consider entitlement programs as an attempt to return us all to childhood. Here it is not suburbia that puts us out of touch with reality, but government. We are, then, all children of the king, and of those beneficent bureaucrats who have taken charge. We are all entitled, at this turning point of history, to become spoiled misfits. In the neurotic tradition of psychopaths like Caligula, Nero, Commodus and Heliogabalus, we are brought along. Losing touch with real life, the spoiled child drifts toward adult insanity. Caligula made his horse a senator, married his sister and declared himself a living god; Nero kicked his pregnant wife to death, put on a veil and married a man; Commodus descended into the arena to fight like a gladiator; and Heliogabalus used eight naked women to pull his chariot.

"Every kid grows up in a fake world," noted Graham, highlighting the fountainhead of our latter-day neuroses. To protect a child may be a good thing, but modern suburbia protects its children by fostering a sterile and "fake" impression of the world. According to Graham, the biggest, most recent lie told to children is how special and smart and savvy they are: "and every year you get a new crop of 18 year olds who think they know how to run the world." And so, the child becomes an adult, accustomed to flattery, shielded from the truth, and ready to believe that government is obligated to take care of everyone. Genuine self esteem attends the acceptance of responsibility and the fulfillment of duty, while today's false self esteem correlates with the government accepting more and more responsibility for the individual.

Speaking of school, Graham noted that children are taught "a complex of lies" in school. "Public school textbooks represent a compromise between what various powerful groups want kids to be told. The lies are rarely overt." He then offers compelling examples, such as the inclusion of various ethnic nobodies placed side by side with notable geniuses. "As subjects got softer," he explained, tracking the degenerative spiral of suburban coddling, "the lies got more frequent. By the time you got to politics and recent history, what we were taught was pretty much pure propaganda." And perhaps the most shocking statement in the whole of Graham's essay touches on "the biggest lie told in schools"; namely, that people succeed by following "the rules." Sadly, the rules of our day are mostly concocted - as Graham says - "to manage large groups effectively."

And who are the managers of these large groups? Well, they are government bureaucrats. It so happens that the use of lies to manage behavior isn't limited to children. Propagandists use lies to manage adults. That awesome manipulative wonder, the government of Russia, following established Soviet practice, spreads lies throughout the world to this day - lies about America, lies about terrorism, lies about the balance of power. Those who would advance the cause of socialism (i.e., the cause of government control), resemble those proficient Soviet practitioners, who conceived and developed a sophisticated form of strategy known as "active measures" (Активные мероприятия). Here the lies are told in layers, and spread in every direction, on every conceivable topic. The Kremlin lies even when there isn't any apparent reason to lie, and tells the truth only when everyone is bound to think it a lie (for example, when Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said he believes in "global cooling" rather than "global warming.")

It is a mark of adulthood that the mature individual accepts hard truths. He is no longer protected. He has "put away childish things." He no longer believes in the Tooth Fairy, the Easter Bunny, or Santa Claus. It is a reversion to childhood, however, if he believes in big government entitlements. In that case, there is nothing to be done. The adult has become a child and lives in the protected world of the child, absorbed in a childish fantasy. On this note, it is fitting to end with an excerpt from E.Y. Harburg's famous lyrics, written for The Wizard of Oz:

Somewhere over the rainbow Way up high There's a land that I heard of Once in a lullaby.

Copyright © 2010 Jeffrey R. Nyquist

Jeffrey R. Nyquist Email

www.jrnyquist.com